Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3177; (P) 1.3244; (R1) 1.3345; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3363 support turned resistance will indicate that the fall has completed as a three-wave correction. Further rally should then be seen back to 1.3587 resistance next. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2744.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3049) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7988; (P) 0.8080; (R1) 0.8132; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 07871/7910 support zone. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 0.8170 will resume the corrective bounce to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379 instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6428; (P) 0.6461; (R1) 0.6502; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Fall from 0.6624 is at least correcting the rally from 0.5913. Risk will stay on the downside as long as this resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.6148 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3742; (P) 1.3810; (R1) 1.3858; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3878 bring stronger rally, but upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 14017) to complete the correction. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3755) will bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Swiss CPI came in firmer than expected in July, with headline inflation unchanged mom versus forecasts of a -0.2% mom decline. Core CPI — which excludes fresh and seasonal products, energy, and fuel — fell slightly by -0.1% mom, while domestic product prices rose 0.2% mom and imported product prices dropped -0.9% mom.

On an annual basis, headline CPI ticked up to 0.2% yoy from 0.1% yoy, also ahead of the 0.1% yoy forecast. Core CPI accelerated from 0.6% yoy to 0.8% y/y yoy. Domestic product inflation remained steady at 0.7% yoy, while imported product prices, although still negative, improved from -1.9% yoy to -1.4% yoy.

Today’s data modestly ease concerns that Switzerland is slipping back into outright deflation. There has been persistent speculation that the SNB might resume negative interest rates following a series of cuts that brought the policy rate back to 0.00%. But July’s inflation uptick may buy policymakers time ahead of the next meeting on September 25.

In the background, the slight weakening in Swiss Franc, as global markets stabilize and trade tensions ease, helps reduce deflationary pressure. If August CPI data show further improvement, expectations will likely shift toward a steady hold in September rather than another policy adjustment.

Full Swiss CPI release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9285; (P) 0.9305; (R1) 0.9338; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral first. Price actions from 0.9445 could still be considered a corrective pattern. On the upside, above 0.9361 resistance will target 0.9428 resistance first. However, below 0.9265 will bring another fall back to retest 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8698; (R1) 0.8759; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations could be seen below 0.8752. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8493) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7785; (P) 1.7859; (R1) 1.7983; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.7972 resistance should resume the whole rally from 1.7245 through 1.8094 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.88; (P) 171.14; (R1) 171.99; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 173.87. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 173.87 will resume larger rally from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 168.80) will delay this bullish case.

Market sentiment is turning sour after last Friday’s weak US jobs data that led to the firing of the Chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)! The BLS reported just 73,000 nonfarm payroll gains for June — far below expectations. But what likely enraged Trump was the revisions: a sharp downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs from the previous two months, which completely reshaped the narrative of a resilient labour market. Taken together, the three-month average job gain fell from 150,000 to just 35,000.

And here’s the rule of thumb: if the US sees NFP figures under 50,000 for six months in a row, that’s considered a recession signal. So, the US may already be halfway there.

The good news — for Donald Trump — is that recession fears have turbocharged rate cut expectations. After Friday’s weak jobs report, the probability of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut jumped from 38% to above 80%. The US 2-year yield, which tracks rate expectations, dropped sharply from near 4% to below 3.70%.

But the bad news is that a weak economy wasn’t part of Trump’s promise. Cutting rates at the wrong moment won’t magically rescue markets, and scapegoating the BLS for the outcome of his administration’s chaotic policies risks damaging the credibility of US economic data.

One by one, the things that made the US exceptional are being eroded.

But US tech earnings show resilience

The S&P500 earnings season — particularly for tech — is going well. Strong AI demand and a softer dollar have led to better-than-expected results across Big Tech.

Meta once again outperformed expectations, Microsoft’s cloud business grew faster than anticipated, and Google held steady. Even Apple sold more iPhones last quarter and reaffirmed its focus on AI. Tesla and Amazon were rare weak spots: Tesla for reasons well known, and Amazon because investors haven’t yet seen AI investments translate into revenue.

So far, 66% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, and Fact Set points that 82% posted positive EPS surprises and 79% reported better-than-expected revenues. The earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at around 10% — well above the 5–7% that investors were expecting.

The issue now is guidance. Outside of AI, it’s not great. Many companies are warning that tariffs could weigh on future results. So maybe — just maybe — those S&P 500 record highs are a bit exaggerated in the current broader context.

Across the Atlantic, earnings have been hit by tariff uncertainty, a stronger euro, and the fact that many companies — particularly automakers — have opted to absorb tariff costs to preserve market share during negotiations. Banks were the exception, benefiting from higher volatility.

The impact of tariffs will persist, though unevenly. Big Tech, financials, utilities, and communications are seen as relative winners in this chaotic reshaping of global trade. Consumer staples, energy, real estate, and healthcare are among the most exposed. Consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials face mixed outcomes, depending on whether they can pass on tariff costs or not.

Eventually, US consumers may end up paying most of the tariffs. To appease Trump’s deficit obsession, they may have to curb their consumption — especially imports. The data released over the next few months will be incredibly interesting to watch — but may also be framed in ways that make the US economy look better than it feels.