Sample Category Title

GBPJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPJPY reversed from the resistance zone
•  Likely to fall to support level 194.00

GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the round resistance level 200.00 (which has been reversing the price from October) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing, which started the active wave c.

Given the predominantly bearish sterling sentiment seen today, GBPJPY can be expected to fall to the next support level 194.00 (target for the completion of the active wave 2).

GBPCHF: ⬆️ Buy

•  GBPCHF reversed from key support level 1.0665
•  Likely to rise to the resistance level 1.0800

GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the pivotal support level 1.0665 (former strong support from April) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support zone will likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing, if the pair closes today near the current levels.

Given the strength of the support level 1.0665 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, GBPCHF can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.0800 (which stopped earlier corrections (ii) and ii).

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

• Silver reversed from the support zone
• Likely to rise to the resistance level 39.45

Silver recently reversed from the support zone between the support level 36.20 (which also stopped wave ii at the start of July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern, Piercing Line – which marked the end of the earlier correction 2.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level at 39.45 (top of earlier impulse wave 1 from July).

WTI oil extends steep fall into third consecutive day to almost fully retrace last week’s $64.99/$70.50 rally.

Oil came under pressure after repeated upside failure at $70 zone (psychological / daily Ichimoku cloud top), with latest decision of OPEC+ to further boost production by 547K bpd in September adding pressure and so far offsetting support from concerns about impact from US tariffs on export from a number of their trading partners and threats of a massive sanctions on Russia and countries that buy Russian crude oil.

Absence of expected reaction from largest Russian oil buyers (China and India) who signaled that they will not comply with Trump’s demands, left fresh bears fully in play for now and threatening of further weakness.

Today’s acceleration broke below thick daily cloud (spanning between $66.64 and $69.89) generated fresh bearish signal (to be confirmed on daily close below cloud base) and exposed key near-term supports at $65.00/64.70 100DMA / higher base, formed in the last week of July.

Weakened daily studies (break below the cloud and below 200/10/20 DMA’s / 14d momentum entered negative territory / south-heading RSI slid below neutrality zone) support scenario, with daily cloud base ($66.64) to ideally cap upticks and guard converged daily Kijun /Tenkan-sen ($67.49/$67.61) respectively, violation of which would sideline bears.

Res: 66.64; 67.12; 67.61; 67.92
Sup: 65.44; 65.00; 64.70; 63.99

• We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut the Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.00% on Thursday 7 August in line with consensus and market pricing.
• Data has been a mixed bag since the last meeting with the labour market showing more pronounced signs of cooling, weaker than expected growth but inflation surprising to the topside. We think this supports the notion of further quarterly cuts.
• We expect a muted reaction in EUR/GBP. We stay negative on GBP.

We expect the Bank of England to cut the Bank Rate to 4.00% on Thursday 7 August in line with consensus and market pricing. We expect the vote split to be 6-3 with the majority voting for a 25bp cut and Greene, Mann, Pill voting for an unchanged decision. Note, this meeting includes updated projections and a press conference following the release of the statement.

Overall, we expect the BoE to stick to its previous guidance repeating that a "gradual and careful approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate". Since the last meeting in June, data has been a mixed bag. Growth has surprised to the downside with the economy contracting by 0.3% m/m in April and 0.1% m/m in May, on course to undershoot the BoE projections for Q2 2025 of 0.25%. The labour market has shown more pronounced signs of cooling with private sector regular wage growth at 4.9% 3M/YoY in May, lower than the BoE's projections of 5.2% but remains at elevated levels. Similarly, payrolls have dropped the past months, and the unemployment rate has edged higher to 4.7%. On the other hand, inflation has been stronger than expected and inflation expectations have risen. Headline inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in June with food prices delivering the relative biggest overshoot compared to the MPC's forecast. On the back of this, we think the MPC is likely to lift the near-term projection for inflation slightly.

BoE call. We expect the BoE to stick to quarterly cuts, leaving the Bank Rate at 3.75% by YE 2025, which is aligned with market pricing. However, we expect the cutting cycle to extend throughout 2026 leaving the Bank Rate at 2.75%. This is more dovish than markets, which prices a bottom of 3.50% a year from now.

Market reaction. We expect a muted market reaction as we expect the BoE to refrain from altering its current guidance. More broadly, we stay negative on GBP. An investment environment characterised by elevated uncertainty and a positive correlation to a USD negative environment, in our view, favours a weaker GBP. Tentative signs of a weaker growth outlook for the UK economy also acts as a headwind for GBP. We therefore expect EUR/GBP to move higher towards 0.89 on a 6-12-month horizon.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1454; (P) 1.1526; (R1) 1.1659; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside at this point. As noted before, correction from 1.1829 could have completed with three waves down to 1.1390 already. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.1788/1820 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.1390 will resume the correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1829 at 1.1198 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3177; (P) 1.3244; (R1) 1.3345; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3363 support turned resistance will indicate that the fall has completed as a three-wave correction. Further rally should then be seen back to 1.3587 resistance next. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2744.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3049) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7988; (P) 0.8080; (R1) 0.8132; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside at this point and deeper decline would be seen to retest 07871/7910 support zone. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 0.8170 will resume the corrective bounce from 0.7871 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379 instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.17; (P) 148.54; (R1) 149.80; More...

USD/JPY dips mildly today but stays well above 145.84 support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Rebound from 139.87 could still extend higher. Above 150.90 will target 151.22 fibonacci level. However, on the downside, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that whole rise from 139.87 might have already completed. Deeper fall should then be seen to 142.66 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.