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U.S. non-farm payrolls rose just 73k in July, well short of the expected 102k. Unusually large revisions made the picture worse—June’s job growth was slashed from 147k to a mere 14k. Unemployment rate edged up from 4.1% to 4.2% as expected, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping the annual pace at 3.9%.

While not a disaster, the report showed a clear loss of momentum in hiring, pushing a September rate cut by the Fed back into focus. The sharp downward revision to June data adds weight to concerns that labor market strength is fading more quickly than anticipated.

EUR/USD bounces notably after the release as Dollar is sold off broadly. Immediate focus is now on 1.1555 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will argue that corrective pattern from 1.1829 has completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Further rally would then be seen back to 1.1788/1829 resistance zone.

Full US NFP release here.

BTCUSD fell to three-week low at 114K zone on Friday morning after the latest orders from President Trump to impose trade tariffs on a number of countries, soured the sentiment.

The latest dip that broke below two-week consolidation range generated fresh negative signal that weakened near term structure and shifted focus to the downside.

Daily studies show negative momentum and 10/20DMA’s in bearish setup that fuels negative outlook, as fresh bears pressure pivotal support at 113681 (Fibo 38.2% of 98182/123261 upleg).

Sustained break here is needed to confirm negative signals and open way for deeper pullback towards 112K zone (former record high), 110700 (50% retracement) and 110K (psychological).

However, ability to hold above 113681 Fibo level would ease downside pressure, but bounce above 10DMA (117500, around the mid-point of recent range) will be required to sideline bears and probably bring in focus key barrier at 120K.

Res: 116900; 117500; 118920; 120000
Sup: 114063; 113680; 112000; 111340

Eurozone inflation came in firmer than expected in July, with headline CPI holding at 2.0% yoy, defying forecasts for a slight dip. Core CPI was steady at 2.3%, as anticipated. The data supports the view that the ECB may already be done cutting rates this year, with markets increasingly convinced that further easing will require a significant downside surprise.

More on ECB CPI steady at 2% in July, reinforces case for ECB pause through rest of 2025.

At the same time, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.8, up from June’s 49.5 and marking a 36-month high. While still technically in contraction, momentum is clearly improving. According to Hamburg Commercial Bank, smaller economies like Spain and the Netherlands are leading the way, while recessionary signals are fading in larger countries like Germany and France. The new US–EU trade agreement is also expected to ease business uncertainty moving forward.

In the UK, Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 48.0 in July, a six-month high. Output neared stabilization, and future expectations rose to their strongest level since February. While the sector remains in mild contraction, the tone has shifted toward cautious optimism.

The Swiss franc has continued to face downside pressure against the US dollar as it extends its losses in place since last Wednesday, 23 July. In today’s Asia, it shed -0.3% at this time of writing, making it the worst-performing major currency against the greenback.

Swiss franc under pressure as US hikes tariffs to 39%, SNB may turn more dovish

The current onslaught of the Swiss franc has been further reinforced by a higher-than-expected US tariff rate of 39% on Swiss products versus the earlier 31% levy announced in April. The latest 39% tariff slapped on Switzerland by the US White House administration is one of the steepest levies globally, which is likely to trigger a significant adverse economic effect on the export-dependent Swiss economy.

After cutting the interest rate to zero in June, the Swiss central bank (SNB) may be forced to adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance to alleviate the negative impact of the higher tariff rates on Swiss exports. The next SNB monetary policy meeting will be on 25 September 2025.

Let’s now focus our attention on a short to medium-term technical trading set-up on the USD/CHF.

Fig 1: USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 1 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

Bullish bias for USD/CHF with key medium-term pivotal support at 0.8060 for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 0.8215/8250 and 0.8350/8380 (also a Fibonacci retracement/extension cluster).

Key elements

• Yesterday’s price action has staged a bullish breakout above the upper boundary of a former medium-term descending channel from the 3 February 2025 swing high, and the 50-day moving average. These observations suggest that the medium-term downtrend of the USD/CHF from 13 January 2025 high to 1 July 2025 has ended.
• The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has reached its overbought region (above 70 level) but has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition which indicates that short to medium-term upside momentum remains intact.
• The yield premium between the 2-year US Treasury note over the 2-year Swiss government bond has continued to inch upward steadily since 10 July 2025, which is likely to support further potential up moves on the USD/CHF.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

A break below 0.8060 invalidates the bullish scenario for the USD/CHF to resume its bearish movement to revisit 0.7990 (also the 20-day moving average), and below it exposes the critical 1 July swing low of 0.7870.

Today, the USD/CAD exchange rate briefly exceeded the 1.3870 mark – the highest level seen this summer. In less than ten days, the US dollar has strengthened by over 2% against the Canadian dollar.

Why Is USD/CAD Rising?

Given that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (as expected), the primary driver behind the pair’s recent rally appears to be US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on several countries – including Canada:

→ Despite efforts by Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney to reach an agreement with Trump, no deal was achieved;

→ Canadian goods exported to the US will now be subject to a 35% tariff;

→ The tariffs take effect from 1 August;

→ Goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are exempt.

Media analysts note that the tariffs are likely to increase pressure on the Canadian economy, as approximately 75% of the country's exports are destined for the United States.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

At the end of July, the price formed a steep ascending channel (A-B), with bullish momentum confirmed by a decisive breakout above the 1.3790 resistance level, as illustrated by the arrow:

→ the pullback before the breakout was relatively shallow;

→ the bullish breakout was marked by a long bullish candlestick with a close near the session high;

→ following the breakout, the price confidently consolidated above 1.3790.

Provided that the fundamental backdrop does not undergo a major shift, bulls might attempt to maintain control in the market. However, the likelihood of a correction is also increasing, as the RSI indicator has entered extreme overbought territory.

Should USD/CAD show signs of a correction after its steep ascent, support might be found at:

→ line C, drawn parallel to the A-B channel at a distance of its width;

→ the previously mentioned 1.3790 level, which now acts as a support following the breakout.

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Eurozone inflation held firmer than expected in July, with headline CPI steady at 2.0% yoy, defying expectations for a slight dip to 1.9% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.3% yoy as forecast. Today’s inflation release reinforces the growing expectation that ECB already completed the easing cycle, as the bar for additional easing is increasingly high.

The underlying components show little sign of disinflation picking up momentum. Non-energy industrial goods inflation rose to 0.8% from 0.5%. While energy inflation remained deeply negative at -2.5%, that decline is slowing. Food inflation ticked up slightly from 3.1% to 3.3%. Services inflation eased only modestly from 3.3% to 3.1%.

Swaps now price in less than 50% chance of another rate cut this year. Comments from officials in recent weeks have leaned cautious, citing inflation stabilization at and waning downside risks tied to the global trade environment. The recent breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations has also removed a key external headwind.

Besides, major banks are shifting their forecasts in line with this view. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and BNP Paribas have all walked back expectations for more cuts in 2025.

Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) closed the week near 2,290 USD per ounce, remaining within a downward trend and marking their worst weekly performance since late June. The precious metal faced sustained pressure from a strengthening US dollar, driven by the tightening of US trade policy.

President Donald Trump confirmed the introduction of a 10% global baseline tariff, alongside retaliatory duties of up to 41% on nations without trade agreements with the US. Additionally, a 40% tariff has been imposed on goods suspected of evading sanctions via third countries.

Further dampening sentiment, fresh US inflation data revealed that both the core and headline PCE index for June had exceeded expectations, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s willingness to cut interest rates as early as September. The dual impact of trade tensions and persistent inflation has eroded gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Market attention now turns to the US non-farm payrolls report for July, which could provide clearer signals on the Fed’s next moves and shape short-term expectations for precious metals.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating within a broad range around 2,298 USD. A downward breakout today could see prices test 2,255 USD, with potential further declines towards 2,247 USD, representing just the first half of the third wave in the broader downtrend. The ultimate target for this bearish wave sits at 2,055 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair continues to trade in a consolidation pattern near 2,298 USD. A drop to 2,263 USD appears likely today, possibly followed by a rebound towards 2,298 USD before another decline to 2,255 USD, extending towards 2,247 USD. The Stochastic oscillator validates this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid trade-related uncertainties and hawkish Fed expectations. A break below key support levels could accelerate declines, while any dovish surprises in US data may offer temporary relief.

• GBP/USD completes bearish head and shoulders pattern.
• Bears approach May’s support at 1.3140 as oversold signals strengthen.

GBP/USD raised alarms over a negative trend reversal after its slide below the 1.3360–1.3400 region confirmed a bearish head and shoulders pattern and cemented a bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

With the US dollar roaring back – bolstered by President Trump’s apparent success in recent trade deals and stronger-than-expected US economic data – the British pound succumbed to bearish pressure.

The pair’s six-day losing streak is now flirting with May’s low of 1.3140, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 uptrend is located. A move lower could open the door for an aggressive decline toward the 200-day SMA near 1.3000 and the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.2943. Further losses could target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2743, if the 1.2870 barrier fails to hold.

Technically, the bearish cycle could soon take a breather as both the RSI and the stochastic oscillator hover in oversold territory. However, for a positive shift, the bulls would need to push the price back above the neckline at 1.3360–1.3500, reclaim the broken support trendline near 1.3500, and then print a new higher high above the key resistance zone at 1.3640.

In brief, GBP/USD has reversed to a bearish trajectory in the short-term picture, with sellers aiming for a new lower low near May’s floor of 1.3140. A drop below this level could trigger fresh selling pressure.

Gold prices are making a fresh attempt to reclaim ground above the $3300/oz mark following a selloff this week.

The selloff in Gold has been down to a combination of factors such as improved sentiment as trade deals were struck and a stronger US Dollar. The question now is whether this is the start of a larger correction or is the road still bumpy ahead?

Gold Prices Moving Forward

Golds continued back and forth over the past few weeks left market participants scratching their heads. However the recent price drop and trendline break have raised interest in the potential for further downside.

Gold buyers are still holding on, but the lower peak at 3435, below April's high of 3500, suggests the rally might be losing steam after a 75% climb over 15 months.

The reason that bulls have remained buoyant thus far, comes from the fact that two previous attempts by bears to gain control saw the precious metal attract buyers en masse. This resulted in higher lows instead of the predicted lower lows which would go with the trend.

In May following a selloff from highs around $3500/oz support and buyers returned around the $3200/oz before a rally to $3433/oz. This was followed by a new lower low at $3122/oz which seemed to many that it could be the start of a longer term downtrend.

However, a rise in geopolitical risk saw a higher high posted instead of a lower high and this saw a two month period of mixed price action.

This begs the question, is the current drop the start of a longer move to the downside or more of the same?

US Dollar Recovery Gains Pace

There is a notable difference with the current rally though.

Firstly, Geopolitical risk has quietened down toward the background over the last 3 weeks which is not to say that it may not return. The Iran question remains open ended, with ongoing meetings and a potential regime change still being touted in many avenues of the media.

Should the situation escalate again, safe haven demand may return. For now though this avenue has led to a reduction of haven flows.

The US dollar has been bid of late as trade deal announcements appear to be aiding the US dollar. The rally in the DXY is now at a crucial point as tariffs kick in. The DXY is testing a crucial pivot level around the 100.00 mark, just ahead of today's NFP data.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, August 1, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

A positive jobs number could add to optimism around the US economy. Whether this is misguided as some analysts have pointed out is irrelevant, what matters is what market participants are doing, and based on market moves it appears there is no doubt that confidence is growing around global growth and growth in the US during h2 2025.

If this picture persists through the month of August, Gold bulls could be in for a challenge. However, it is always important to remember that the situation has been fluid and ever evolving in 2025, so this is by no means set in stone.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold monthly candle close for July closed as a massive shooting star which hints at further downside ahead.

This also marked the first bearish monthly close since December 2024 and could be a sing of the shift in momentum between buyers and sellers.

Dropping down to a daily chart and as you can see below, we have broken below the triangle pattern where last week we had a false breakout to the upside.

The breakout to the downside has been followed by a significant push lower, with Wednesday seeing the precious metal lose about 1.55% and record its lowest daily close in just over a month.

However, yesterday we saw an inside bar bullish candle close as Gold found some support at the 100-day MA which is hovering around the $3270/oz handle.

If bulls are to make a move higher, acceptance above the $3300/oz handle is crucial with a daily candle close above this level needed for bullish momentum to return.

Immediate resistance rests at $3322, $3341 and $3350 respectively.

A move lower here will first need a clean break and daily candle close below the 100-day MA. This could open up the possibility of further downside toward support at $3243, $3200 and potentially the $3121 handle (which is the lowest price reached since the April all-time high of $3500/oz.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, August 1, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 72% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9258; (P) 0.9283; (R1) 0.9298; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 0.9292 support indicates that deeper decline is underway. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9361 resistance holds. Retest of 0.9218 low should be seen next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, while downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in W MACD, there is no sign of bottoming yet. EUR/CHF is still staying below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9424) and well inside long term falling channel. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9660 resistance holds. Break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption of down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).