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USDCAD: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCAD broke resistance zone
•  Likely rise to resistance level 1.3900

USDCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.3785 (upper border of the sideways price range from the start of June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from May.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to medium-term impulse wave (B) from the start of July.

USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3900 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

Platinum: ⬇️ Sell

• Platinum broke support zone
•  Likely to fall to support level 1200.00

Platinum recently broke the support zone located between the key support level 1340.00 (low of the previous minor correction iv) and the support trendline of the daily up channel from May.

The breakout of this support zone accelerated the c-wave of the active ABC correction 4.

Given the bearish sentiment across the precious metals markets, Platinum can be expected to fall to the next support level 1200.00 (target for the completion of the active wave c).

Silver prices have fallen around 4.5% over the last two trading days as a resurgent US Dollar and weaker haven flows weigh on prices.

The US Dollar remains strong, and rising US bond yields are limiting any chance of recovery for now. The Dollar’s strength is driven by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with strong US GDP and job data. These factors support the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary policy and reduce expectations for rate cuts in the near future.

Now Silver's extended rally this year was down to a combination of factors. Those include safe haven demand, a weak US Dollar and supply demand discrepancies.

Now if haven demand remains low and the US Dollar rally continues, how deep could the pullback in silver prices be? For the record, the discrepancy between supply and demand remains in play and is highly unlikely to change anytime soon.

With that in mind and only one of the three main causes of the silver rally still present, what could the potential downside for silver be?

Technical Analysis - Silver (XAG/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Silver has peaked at 39.52 before falling. A brief attempt at a recovery on Monday and Tuesday has faded away thanks to Fed Chair Powell's comments yesterday.

A daily candle closed yesterday below the ascending trendline with further losses today.

The RSI period-14 on the daily chart has crossed below the 50 neutral level but remains some way off oversold conditions.

This means that further downside toward the 100-day MA at 34.60 could materialize.

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, July 31, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Dropping down to the four-hour chart and the picture changes slightly.

The period-14 RSI is deep in oversold territory with a potential short-term pullback a real possibility.

Looking toward the upside, resistance is provided by the 200-day MA at 37.24 and the 100-day MA at 38.09.

A four-hour candle close above the 38.22 handle would invalidate a potential bearish setup in the near-term.

Silver (XAG/USD) Four-Hour Chart, July 31, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Support

• 36.20
• 35.26
• 34.60 (100-day MA)

Resistance

• 37.24
• 38.09
• 38.68

In recent years, the USDCNH paused its long-term attempt to strengthen against the USD. Back in February 2014, it found support at 6.0153, marking wave ((III)). What followed was textbook Elliott Wave: a zig-zag corrective structure that reached equal legs at 7.1964 in September 2019.

At that point, many expected the downtrend to resume. But renminbi had other plans.

Instead of continuing lower, the pair broke above the 7.1964 high, invalidating the simple correction thesis and hinting at something deeper: a double correction structure.

What does this mean?

• The break above 7.1964 suggests the renminbi is undergoing a complex correction, not a trend reversal.
• This opens the door to further upside in the short-to-medium term, before any sustained strengthening resumes.
• Traders should watch for internal wave subdivisions and confirmation of the second corrective leg.

When a zig-zag fails to hold, expect complexity. Double corrections often trap trend followers, structure matters more than sentiment. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory)

USDCNH July 2023 Weekly Chart

Since July 2023, USDCNH has extended its complex correction. After wave (w) peaked at 7.1974, the pair dropped in an expanded flat for wave (x), ending with a diagonal bounce from 6.3058. Momentum shifted quickly, wave “a” impulsed to 7.3748, breaking above wave (w) and confirming the bullish sequence. Wave “b” retraced to 6.6883 before price resumed higher. USDCNH is targeting the 7.4866–7.7646 zone to complete wave “c”, wave (y), and wave ((IV)), before the renminbi resumes its broader downtrend.

USDCNH March 2025 Weekly Chart

In March 2025, USDCNH rallied in wave (1) of ((3)), reaching the 7.3700 high. The move showed strength, but failed to break new highs, an early sign of hesitation. A pullback followed, likely wave (2) of ((3)), as the dollar posted its worst quarterly drop since 1973. Despite the dollar’s sharp depreciation, USDCNH didn’t mirror the move. This divergence suggests underlying strength in the renminbi’s corrective structure. The pair held firm, preserving its bullish sequence.

USDCNH July 2025 Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows a clear breakout above the 2022 highs. This signals more upside ahead. The move broke out in a corrective fashion. Wave (2) formed an expanded flat, as you can watch on the chart. As long as USDCNH stays above wave ‘b’ at 6.6883, we expect bullish continuation. Why use the lows of wave ‘b’ and wave ((2)) as pivots? Because until price breaks above wave B’s high, we can’t rule out an expanded flat for wave ((2)). For now, we stay bullish. We expect wave (3) of ((3)) to lead the next rally. Our target remains 7.4866–7.7646. That zone would complete the correction that began in 2014.

Copper remains firmly in red on Thursday after falling over 18% previous day and extends weakness to the lowest in almost four months.

Copper price collapsed from the zone near new record high after President Trump surprised markets by excluding a number of copper products from initial 50% tariff list, leaving copper pipes and wiring.

Strong market reaction, in which metal’s price erased gains from previous months, reflects the magnitude of shock produced by Trump’s latest decision.

Copper is also on track for a record weekly loss and generated strong negative signal from large monthly bearish candle with long upper shadow, which also completed bearish engulfing pattern.

Technical picture on daily chart from firmly bullish to increasingly bearish within a day, opening prospects for further easing.

Although daily studies are deeply oversold, indicators are still heading south and so far lacking any signal of correction, which should be anticipated in coming sessions after euphoria fades.

Wednesday’s close below 200DMA (4.6399) and today’s dip and likely close below 50% retracement of July 2022 / July 2025, 3.1285/5.9565, uptrend (4.5425) contributes to negative near-term outlook.

Bears found temporary footstep at 100WMA (4.3128) but keep in focus next targets at 4.2088 (Fibo 61.8%) and 4.1541 (200WMA).

Broken 200DMA (4.6399) reverted to initial resistance, while broken daily cloud top (4.8961) should cap extended upticks to keep fresh bears in play.

Res: 4.5425; 4.6399; 4.7068; 4.8762
Sup: 4.3128; 4.2088; 4.1541; 4.1000

Markets

The three biggest Euro area economies released July inflation numbers today. French prices rose 0.3% m/m to be up a June-matching 0.9% on a yearly basis as energy was still heavily weighing on inflation. Italian inflation meanwhile dropped 1% on a monthly basis with the year-on-year print easing from 1.8% to 1.7%. Both countries nevertheless slightly topped expectations. Germany on the other hand missed them by a slight margin with the harmonized price index adding 0.4% m/m and 1.8% y/y, the first sub 2% reading in 10 months. Taken together and considering yesterday’s Spanish outcome (2.7% vs 2.6% expected), risks if any, for tomorrow’s European inflation figure, are marginally tilted to the upside. The bar is set 1.9% for the headline series (down from 2%) and 2.3% for the core gauge (same as in June). The near-consensus data had little impact on markets. The front end of European yield curves left the early lows of the day in the wake of the French release and now trade around 1 bp higher in the German case. Money market bets for additional rate cuts by ECB were lowered and are currently no higher than 70% (March 2026). In the US, government officials including Treasury Secretary Bessent are lashing out at the Fed for not cutting rates at yesterday’s meeting again. The USTS said to expect a candidate for his successor by the end of the year. He also expects current chair Powell to leave the board once his terms at the helm of the Fed ends in May 2026, saying that there “will be two seats opening up on the Fed board”. Fed governor Adriana Kugler’s seat is the other one as her term ends in January 2026. And yet, today’s, be it mostly-second tier, US eco data appear to vindicate the Fed’s approach of a wait and see. June personal income was slightly better than expected while spending picked up 0.3% from an upwardly revised zero-growth month of June. June PCE’s meanwhile came in higher than expected with the headline gauge rising 0.3% to 2.6% y/y and the core number adding 0.3% to 2.8%. The May figures also got a bump to 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. And weekly jobless claims printed a low 218k, bringing the 4-week MA down to 221k, the lowest since mid-April. US yields briefly ticked higher but that died out soon. Net daily changes vary between -1.2 (2-yr) and -2.5 bps (30-yr), returning some of the bps gains following yesterday’s Fed meeting.

The dollar recovery of the last couple of days is running into resistance today but losses against G10 peers are limited. EUR/USD tried to keep the 1.1431 support alive but for now fails in doing so (1.1417). DXY remains just inches way from the symbolical 100 barrier. The Japanese yen initially welcomed the beefed up BoJ inflation forecast this morning as being one step closer to a rate hike. But then governor Ueda poured cold water on those bets. He stressed that the US-Japanese trade deal didn’t suddenly lift all of the trade fog and that uncertainty remains very high. USD/JPY turned losses into solid gains that push the pair north of 150 for the first time since Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day.

News & Views

Polish inflation eased less than anticipated in July. Monthly prices rose 0.3%, bringing the yearly reading down from 4.1% to 3.1% vs 2.8% expected. Details are limited but showed that a -0.6% m/m decline in food and non-alcoholic beverages was overcompensated by a 1.1% increase for energy (electricity, gas and other fuels) and a 3.5% uptick for personal transport equipment fuels. The National Bank of Poland in its early July meeting had projected that inflation would fall below the upper bound of the 2.5% +/- 1 ppt tolerance range and decided to lower the reference rates by 25 bps as a result to 5%. Polish money markets are expecting several more rate cuts this year to around 4.5%. The Polish zloty’s reaction was muted with EUR/PLN trading at an unchanged 4.28 level today.

Hungarian prime minister Orban announced a housing subsidy for public servants of HUF 1mln. The pledge comes as the PM struggles in the opinion polls going into parliamentary elections next year and follows a series of other spending measures including big income tax cuts and a subsidized mortgage scheme that increasingly pressure an already strained budget. Despite the new fiscal incentives, Orban’s cabinet remains committed to keep the budget deficit at 4.1% this year.

Canadian GDP in May printed in line with expectations, falling for a second consecutive month by 0.1% month-on-month (m/m). GDP growth in June is expected to tick higher, reversing some of this month's pullback.

Compositionally, 13 of 20 industries registered a decrease on the month. Goods industries contracted again (-0.1% m/m), while the services sector remained flat.

On the goods side, the manufacturing sector bounced back modestly (0.7% m/m) after a larger contraction the month prior. Routine maintenance in the oil patch drove mining/quarrying/oil & gas sector down 1% m/m in May. Elsewhere, the agriculture, utilities, and construction sectors all registered slight declines.

On the services side, the transportation and warehousing sector edged ahead by 0.6% m/m, with most subsectors expanding in May. Meanwhile, the real estate sector grew for a second consecutive month (0.3% m/m) on the back of rising home sales. A 4.8% m/m slowdown in motor vehicle sales and a 0.2% decline in the public sector aggregate counterbalanced services gains.

The advanced guidance for a 0.1% m/m increase in June GDP is driven by increases in retail and wholesale trade and partially offset by a decrease in manufacturing.

Key Implications

May's weak GDP reading came as no surprise as tariff-related headwinds continue to blow. For the time being, industry data suggest Q2 GDP effectively flat. While this would represent a sharp pullback from Q1 growth, it would be a better outcome than the BoC's most recent guidance for second quarter growth. Past this, the outlook continues to face considerable uncertainty, not least since Canada and U.S. officials have yet to strike a trade deal.

The Bank of Canada will take this reading in stride, as they continue to weigh softening economic growth against ongoing underlying inflation pressures. At their meeting this week, the Bank decided to hold the policy rate steady at 2.75%, but did not close the door to additional rate cuts. With excess supply building in the economy and inflation showing some signs of containment, we believe there is room to lower the policy rate later this year.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1346; (P) 1.1459; (R1) 1.1518; More...

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1829, as a correction to rally from 1.0176, is in progress. Intraday bias stays on the downside for retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1829 at 1.1198. On the upside, break of 1.1555 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3183; (P) 1.3284; (R1) 1.3341; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3787 accelerates lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3363 from 1.3587 at 1.3163. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection 1.2901 next. On the upside, above 1.3281 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3363 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3045) holds, even in case of deep pullback.