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After moving lower in April and May, retail and food services sales rebounded in June rising by 0.6% month-on-month (m/m) – well ahead of expectations for 0.1% gain.

Following two consecutive monthly declines, sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 1.2% m/m. Ditto for sales of building materials, garden equipment & supplies stores, which also moved higher (+0.9% m/m). Sales at gasoline stations were flat.

Sales in the "control group", which excludes the three volatile components mentioned above (i.e., autos, gasoline and building supplies) rose by 0.5% on the month, and were up 4% from the year-ago. Sales were higher across all categories, other than home furniture and electronics & appliance stores (-0.1% m/m). Miscellaneous store retailers led the way with sales up 1.8% on the month, followed by clothing & accessories stores and health & personal care stores.

Sales at bars and restaurants – the only service category in the report – rebounded by 0.6% reversing the slight decline in May, which is much smaller following revisions (-0.1% up from -0.9% reported previously).

Key Implications

After two consecutive monthly declines, retail spending rebounded in June, with sales rising across most categories. Notably, sales at bars and restaurants increased, and May’s decline now appears smaller following data revisions. The improvement in sales coincides with recent signs of stabilization in consumer confidence. Although still at a low level, sentiment has steadied in recent weeks as economic uncertainty eased somewhat, financial markets recovered, gas prices declined, and the labor market continued to churn out jobs.

Inflation too has so far not reared its head, easing concerns about the immediate impact of tariffs on consumer prices. However, we anticipate that tariff-related effects will become more visible in the coming months. June's inflation data already indicates emerging price pressures in categories such as home furnishings, recreational goods, and apparel—areas where tariffs are having a notable impact. While so far many businesses have tried to absorb higher costs and shield consumers, we expect greater pass through of tariff-related price increases over the summer. The outlook for consumer spending in the months ahead will largely depend on the extent of these price hikes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.80; (P) 148.00; (R1) 149.08; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 149.17. Downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 145.56). Break of 149.17 will resume the whole rise from 139.87 to 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43. That is close to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Dollar remains broadly firm in early US session after a round of stronger-than-expected data reaffirmed the resilience of the US economy. However, gains are being capped as traders digest lingering political risks, including uncertainty over the status of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and wait for further clarity from upcoming sentiment data. U.S. futures are flat, reflecting a more cautious tone across broader markets.

The Powell firing speculation has temporarily faded, following President Trump's denial. Still, the issue could re-emerge at any moment, making it a latent risk for Dollar bulls. That’s prompting traders to hesitate before chasing the greenback higher despite the solid economic prints. Meanwhile, tomorrow's University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data will be closely watched for signs of how Trump’s renewed tariff campaign is starting to impact consumers.

In FX rankings this week so far, Dollar is the top performer, followed by Loonie and Sterling. At the bottom end, Aussie has slumped following soft jobs data that prompted markets to price in a higher chance of an RBA rate cut in August. Kiwi and Swiss Franc are also underperforming, while Euro and Yen sit in the middle of the pack.

On the trade front, Japan is accelerating efforts to avoid a damaging 25% US tariff due to take effect August 1. Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa spoke with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick today in a call described by Tokyo as substantive. Talks will continue, and Japan has reaffirmed its desire to strike a deal without compromising its core economic interests.

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba is scheduled to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Tokyo on Friday. The meeting will coincide with Bessent’s visit to Osaka for the national day at the World Expo. Akazawa will also attend and host the US delegation. Diplomatic channels are clearly active, but time is running short before tariffs take hold.

Technically, for AUD/NZD, focus is on 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0914) with today's decline. Sustained break there should confirm short term topping at 1.0988, after missing 100% projection of 1.0649 to 1.0920 from 1.0724 at 1.0995. Deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0649 to 1.0988 at 1.0859. Further break there will argue that rise from 1.0649 has completed as a three-wave corrective move.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.41%. DAX is up 1.08%. CAC is up 1.12%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.023 at 4.663. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.002 at 2.693. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.60%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.08%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.37%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.71%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.017 to 1.559.

US retail sales rise 0.6% mom in June, ex-auto sales up 0.5% mom

US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 7201.B in June, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 583.3B, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.7% mom to USD 669.8B. Ex-auto& gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 533.0B. Total sales for the April through June period were up 4.1% from the same period a year ago.

US initial jobless claims fall to 221k vs exp 234k

US initial jobless claims fell -7k to 221k in the week ending July 12, below expectation of 234k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -6k to 230k. Continuing claims rose 2k to 1956k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5k to 1958k, highest since November 20, 2021.

Eurozone CPI finalized at 2% in June, services remain main driver

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.0% yoy in June, slightly higher than May’s 1.9% yoy. Core CPI (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) held steady at 2.3% for the second straight month.

Services contributed the bulk of annual Eurozone inflation (+1.51 percentage points), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.59 pp). Energy continued to exert a mild drag, subtracting -0.25 pp.

At the broader EU level, CPI rose to 2.3% yoy from 2.2% yoy the prior month. Cyprus and France saw sub-1% inflation, while Eastern European nations led the upside—Romania at 5.8% and Estonia at 5.2%. Inflation rose in 22 out of 27 EU states.

UK payrolled employment slips again, wage growth slows further

UK payrolled employment fell by -41k in June, marking a second straight monthly contraction. Though May’s drop was revised to a milder -24k from an initial -109k, the overall picture still points to a softening labor market. Claimant count rose more than expected by 25.8k. Unemployment rate in the three months to May edged higher from 4.6% to 4.7%.

Wage growth also lost some momentum, with median monthly pay rising 5.6% yoy in June, down from May’s 5.7% yoy. Average earnings growth in the three months to May slowed to 5.0% both with and without bonuses, with the latter still slightly hotter than the 4.9% expected.

Aussie unemployment rate surges to 4.3% as full-time jobs slide

Australia’s June jobs report came in well short of expectations, with only a 2k increase in employment and a sharp divergence between full-time and part-time work. Full-time employment plunged by -38.2k while part-time roles rose 40.2k. Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, defying forecasts for it to hold at 4.1%, while participation rate remained unchanged at 67.0%.

According to the ABS, the rise in joblessness was driven by a 34k increase in the number of unemployed Australians. ABS labor head Sean Crick added that full-time hours worked declined -1.3% in the month, suggesting further weakness ahead. Despite a marginal rise in total hours worked of 0.1% mom, the data add to signs that the labor market is losing momentum.

Japan auto exports to US plunge -26.7% yoy as carmakers cut prices

Japan logged a trade surplus of JPY 153B in June, with exports down -0.5% yoy and imports up 0.2% yoy. The most striking detail was a sharp -11.4% yoy drop in exports to the US, the steepest decline since February 2021. Imports from the US also fell, declining -2.0% yoy.

Automobile shipments to the US fell -26.7% by value, while auto parts (-15.5% yoy) and pharmaceuticals (-40.9% yoy) also saw double-digit drops. Still, a 3.4% yoy rise in car export volumes suggests Japanese automakers are slashing prices and absorbing costs to maintain market share.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports dipped -0.4% mom while imports fell -1.0%, leaving a JPY 235B trade deficit.

The report comes just weeks before a 25% reciprocal US tariff on Japanese goods takes effect on August 1. That is one percentage point higher than the 24% rate first announced on "Liberation Day" in April.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.80; (P) 148.00; (R1) 149.08; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 149.17. Downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 145.56). Break of 149.17 will resume the whole rise from 139.87 to 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43. That is close to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

US initial jobless claims fell -7k to 221k in the week ending July 12, below expectation of 234k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -6k to 230k.

Continuing claims rose 2k to 1956k. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5k to 1958k, highest since November 20, 2021.

Full US jobless claims release here.

US retail sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 7201.B in June, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 583.3B, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.7% mom to USD 669.8B. Ex-auto& gasoline sales rose 0.6% mom to USD 533.0B.

Total sales for the April through June period were up 4.1% from the same period a year ago.

Full US retail sales release here.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave charts of Ethereum ETHUSD . As our members know, ETHUSD has been showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycle from the 2,115.6 low, pointing to further strength ahead. We have been calling for a rally in ETHUSD since the beginning of July, based on the higher high bullish sequences the crypto was forming.

ETHUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.03.2025

The current analysis suggests that ETHUSD is trading within the cycle from the 2,115.6 low. The price structure is showing higher high bullish sequences. Intraday pullback 2 is counted as completed at the 2,377.5 low. While price stays above that level, we expect further strength in the crypto, within wave 3 red.

As Elliott Wave practitioners know, wave 3 is usually the strongest wave in an impulsive sequence and often reaches the 1.618–2.618 Fibonacci extension of wave 1. In this case, that projects potential targets in the 3,036.5–3,441.1 area.

ETHUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 07.11.2025

The crypto held above the 2,377.5 low and continued to rally, as expected. The price made a break toward new highs. We do not recommend selling the crypto at this time and favor the long side. Ethereum is reaching our proposed target at 3,036.5–3,441.1 area and should ideally keep trading higher within that zone in upcoming days.

Hello fellow traders.

As our members know, we’ve been long in Bitcoin. The crypto has made a solid rally toward new all-time highs, gaining more than 20% since our entry on the June 22nd. In this technical article, we are going to present short term Elliott Wave forecast of BTCUSD. The crypto shows impulsive bullish structure in the cycle from the 105,141 low, calling for a further strength. In the following text, we will explain the analysis in more detail and present the potential target levels.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Asia Chart 07.16.2025

The cycle from the 105,141 low appears to be unfolding as a 5-wave pattern. BTCUSD has completed a clear 3-wave pullback, which we label as wave ((iv)). The price has reached the equal legs area at 116,439–115,486 and is already showing a reaction from that zone.

We do not recommend shorting at this stage and continue to favor the long side. Ideally, we’d like to see further separation from the recent low to confirm that the next leg higher is in progress.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour London Chart 07.16.2025

Bitcoing keeps progressing higher from the equal legs area. While above 115,826 low, Elliott Wave count suggests BTCUSD is have wave ((v)) is in progress, targeting 125,014-127,884 area next.

Australian dollar fell almost 1% against its US counterpart during Asian / early European session on Thursday, deflated by disappointing labor data.

Australian unemployment jumped unexpectedly in June, hitting the highest in 3 ½ years, while employment rose marginally, contributing to negative picture.

Weak labor data boost expectations for more rate cuts, although the policymakers are likely to be more cautious and look for more evidence about inflation (Q3 report is due end of July) before taking an action.

Today’s drop was significant (the pair is on track for one of the biggest daily losses since Apr 4 collapse) as it broke below recent range floor (0.6556, also 50% retracement of 0.6372/0.6594 upleg) but found support at daily Ichimoku cloud top (0.6463).

Massive daily cloud (spanned between 0.6463 and 0.6230) provides very solid support and very strong headwinds to fresh bears, which are likely to contain current dip.

In such scenario, immediate downside risk would be diminished and would keep the price in extended consolidation within already defined range.

Conversely, penetration and closing within the cloud would weaken near term structure and allow for deeper pullback.

Daily studies are mixed as cloud continues to underpin while momentum turned negative, while MA’s are in mixed setup and lack clearer direction signal at the moment.

Res: 0.6483; 0.6530; 0.6575; 0.6592
Sup: 0.6463; 0.6434; 0.6407; 0.6372

The Australian dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6467, down 0.93% on the day. Earlier, the Australian dollar fell as low as 0.6461, its lowest level since June 24.

Australian job growth slides, unemployment jumps

Australia's June employment report was much softer than expected and investors responded by sending the Australian to a three-week low. Job growth showed a marginal gain of two thousand, following a revised -1.1 thousand in May and well off the market estimate of 20 thousand.

Full time employment slid by 38.2 thousand, after a revised gain of 41.9 thousand in May. The unemployment rate, which had held at 4.1% for five consecutive months, jumped to 4.3%, the highest jobless rate since Nov. 2021.

The weak job numbers indicate large cracks in what has been a resilient labor market. This has enabled the Reserve Bank to go slow, with only two cuts in the current easing cycle, which began in February. Today's soft job numbers will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates at its August rate cut. The markets have raised bets for a quarter-point cut to around 85%, as investors are anticipating that the Bank won't be able to ignore this deterioration in the labor market.

Overshadowed by the employment data, Australia's consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.7% in July, down from 5.0% in June. Inflation has been largely contained, running at 2.4% y/y for three consecutive quarters.

US retail sales expected to rebound

After the June inflation report was hotter than expected, the markets will be focused on today's retail sales release. The consensus stands at 0.1% m/m, after a dismal 0.9% decline in May, which was a four-month low as consumers held back on spending due to US tariffs.

AUDUSD Technical

• AUD/USD has pushed below several support levels today. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6467, followed by 0.6439
• There is resistance at 0.6557 and 0.6585

AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, July 17, 2025

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.0% yoy in June, slightly higher than May’s 1.9% yoy. Core CPI (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) held steady at 2.3% for the second straight month.

Services contributed the bulk of annual Eurozone inflation (+1.51 percentage points), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.59 pp). Energy continued to exert a mild drag, subtracting -0.25 pp.

At the broader EU level, CPI rose to 2.3% yoy from 2.2% yoy the prior month. Cyprus and France saw sub-1% inflation, while Eastern European nations led the upside—Romania at 5.8% and Estonia at 5.2%. Inflation rose in 22 out of 27 EU states.

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.