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The Australian dollar has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, down 0.32% on the day. The Aussie took advantage of US dollar weakness last week as it touched a high of 0.6593, its highest level since November 2024.

China's GDP expected to ease to 5.1%

China's economy is expected to have grown by 5.1% in the second quarter, after back-to-back quarters of gains of 5.4%. The government's annual growth target is around 5.0%, and policymakers won't complain if this target is exceeded for a third consecutive quarter.

Exports were up 5.8% y/y in June, above the consensus of 5.0% and well above the May gain of 4.8%. The jump in exports was driven by a trade truce with the US that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 55%. Still, the economic picture is uncertain as the tariff truce ends in August.

China will also release industrial production and retail sales for June, with the markets forecasting weaker numbers. Industrial production, which has been decelerating in recent months, is expected to ease to 5.6% from 5.8%, while retail sales are expected to fall to 5.6%, down from 6 .4% in May, which was the strongest level since December 2023.

Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday, with a forecast of a 0.4% gain for July . This follows a 0.4% gain in June. Consumers remain cautious, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut in May and lower inflation.

The RBA shocked the markets last week when it maintained the cash rate at 3.85%, as all signs appeared to point to a quarter-point cut. The RBA meets next on August 12.

AUDUSD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6562. Below, there is support at 0.6550
• There is resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6582

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart, July 14, 2025

Oil prices advanced this morning following a bullish close on Friday. It appears that the fears market participants had in regards to a recession may be waning and this has helped Oil prices.

Economists now predict better growth, more jobs, a lower chance of a recession, and slower inflation compared to three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal's quarterly survey. On average, economists see a 33% chance of a recession in the next year, down from 45% in April but higher than 22% in January.

OPEC + Projects Strong Q3 Demand

Another reason oil prices could be on the up this morning comes from OPEC +. Russia's RIA news agency quoted Haitham Al Ghais on Monday as telling journalists on the sidelines of last week's OPEC seminar in Vienna that the organization expects oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by a strong global economy.

Al Ghais said there is strong demand growth, especially in the third quarter, and good demand growth in the fourth quarter, with tight supply-demand balances. This is why the group of eight countries is increasing oil production, according to the report.

OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production and expect strong demand in the third quarter, with a tight balance between supply and demand in the coming months. According to five sources who spoke to Reuters, OPEC+ plans to approve another large increase in oil production for September, as reported by Reuters.

Chinese Crude Imports Soar

China's crude oil imports bounced back in June, hitting their highest daily rate since August 2023. This happened as refineries increased production and imports from Saudi Arabia and Iran grew, according to consultancies.

China, the world's largest oil buyer, imported 49.89 million metric tons of oil in June, equal to 12.14 million barrels per day, based on data from the General Administration of Customs. This was a 7.1% increase from May's 46.6 million tons and 7.4% higher than the same time last year.

Kpler reported that imports from Saudi Arabia rose by 845,000 barrels per day to 1.78 million barrels per day, as lower prices encouraged Chinese refiners to buy more oil.

China's crude oil stocks also grew by 82 million barrels in the second quarter of 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

New policies in China are making oil companies long-term storage partners for the government, keeping these stocks out of the global market, the IEA said. The agency also noted that Chinese companies are expected to keep building up oil inventories, which will play a key role in balancing the market in the coming months.

The fact that China will continue building its oil inventories bodes well for Oil prices and could keep prices supported.

Looking Ahead - Potential Sanctions on Russia to Aid Oil Prices?

US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he will send Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. He is also set to make a "major statement" about Russia on Monday, expressing frustration with President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine.

To push Russia into serious peace talks with Ukraine, a bipartisan US bill proposing new sanctions on Russia gained support in Congress last week.

Meanwhile, European Union envoys are close to finalizing their 18th round of sanctions against Russia. This package is expected to include a lower price cap on Russian oil, according to four EU sources after a Sunday meeting.

Sanctions have thus far failed to dent Russian oil exports, will this package prove any different? It will be interesting to hear from President Trump and gauge if market participants react to any statement made.

Any sign that Russian exports may be affected could see a spike in Oil prices, however given the flip-flopping we have seen from the Trump administration, markets may ignore the announcement.

Technical Analysis - WTI

From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil prices bounced off the ascending trendline on Friday.

The daily candle closed as a bullish engulfing and has broken above the 200-day MA. We saw a retest of the 200-day MA this morning before oil prices moved higher once more.

For now bulls remain firmly in control with a daily candle close below the swing low at 66.81.

Immediate resistance rests at 71.38 with a break above facing resistance at 73.20 and the psychological 75.00 handle.

Support may be found at the 200-day MA which rests at 68.47 before the all-important swing low at 66.81.

WTI Oil Daily Chart, July 14, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on WTI with 73% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are long means WTI prices could decline in the near-term.

Silver hit the highest in nearly 14 years on Monday, testing levels above $39 as strong bullish acceleration extends into third consecutive day.

Growing uncertainty over US tariffs and weak economic outlook continue to fuel demand and underpin the price.

Fresh rally broke above recent $35.30/$37.30 consolidation range, signaling continuation of broader uptrend and unmasking psychological $40 barrier.

Technical picture on daily chart is firmly bullish but overbought that threatens of increased headwinds on approach to $40 target.

This may put bulls on hold for consolidation which should ideally hold above $37 zone (former breakpoint, reverted to support) to keep bulls intact for fresh push higher.

Sustained break above $40 to generate fresh bullish signal and expose targets at $40.68 (Fibo 76.4% of $49.78/$11.23, 2011/2020 downtrend) and $41.00 (round-figure).

Caution on loss of $37 handle that would weaken near-term structure and risk attack at lower pivots at $35.00 zone (former range floor / broken Fibo 61.8% of $49.78/$11.23 downtrend).

Res: 39.50; 40.00; 40.68; 41.00.
Sup: 38.25; 37.31; 36.15; 35.00.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.53; (P) 147.03; (R1) 147.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral with focus on 148.01 resistance. Firm break there will indicate that consolidations pattern from 148.64 has completed. Further rise should then be seen to resume the rally from 139.87, to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7953; (P) 0.7968; (R1) 0.7981; More….

USD/CHF is still extending the consolidations from 0.7871 and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3454; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3559; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first. Pullback from 1.3787 could extend lower but downside is expected to be contained by 1.3369 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3680 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3787. Firm break of 1.3787 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. However, firm break of 1.3369 will bring deeper correction back to 1.2706/3206 support zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3019) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1665; (P) 1.1690; (R1) 1.1714; More...

EUR/USD is still extending the correction from 1.1829 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Downside should be 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, sustained break of 1.1630 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1474) instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

The reaction to US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff salvo has been relatively muted so far. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC opened mildly lower, but losses remain limited. In currency markets, Euro is holding steady, trading largely inside Friday’s ranges without triggering major downside momentum. The market appears to be bracing for drawn-out negotiations rather than immediate escalation.

Optimism is underpinned by Trump’s negotiation history—often characterized by bold opening demands followed by compromise. The fact that the 30% tariff on EU imports is scheduled to take effect in August, not immediately, reinforces the view that space remains for a diplomatic resolution. The final rate will likely land well below 30%, even though above the UK's 10% benchmark.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic warned Monday that the 30% tariff would severely disrupt transatlantic trade, but voiced hope that a resolution could still be achieved. “We have to do everything we can to prevent this super-negative scenario,” he said. Talks between the EU and Washington are ongoing, and the EU has not yet announced any retaliatory measures, which has helped temper market nerves.

Elsewhere, South Korea is also looking for a way out of the tariff web. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo said an in-principle agreement might be achievable before August 1. Speaking to local media, he hinted Seoul may open up its agricultural markets while protecting strategic industrial sectors. “Twenty days are not enough to come up with a perfect treaty,” he acknowledged, but reiterated the urgency of preventing damaging tariffs on Korean exports.

In currency markets, the Canadian Dollar is leading gains, while Swiss Franc and Yen are benefitting from mild safe-haven demand. New Zealand and Australian Dollars remain under pressure, despite China’s better-than-expected trade numbers. Sterling is weak as well. Dollar and Euro are trading near mid-pack.

Technically, one pair to watch is GBP/AUD. After last week's extended decline, it's now pressing 2.0478 support. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 2.1643, and target 61.8% projection of 2.1643 to 2.0478 from 2.1034 at 2.0314. Decisive break there could prompt further acceleration to 100% projection at 1.9869.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.36%. DAX is down -0.89%. CAC is down -0.42%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.009 at 4.620. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.01 at 2.735. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.28%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.26%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.27%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.52%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.07 to 1.577.

Silver hits near 14-year high and targest 40 as global flows accelerate

Silver’s rally picked up pace on Monday, hitting its highest level since late 2011 after last week’s decisive upside breakout. The metal has surged alongside broad-based strength in precious metals, with Palladium reaching its highest since October 2024 and Gold rebounding to a three-week high. Renewed investor interest across the complex suggests increasing demand for portfolio diversification amid geopolitical and trade policy risks.

One notable driver has been rising demand out of India, where investors are shifting from Gold to Silver as a catch-up trade after years of underperformance. Silver is also seeing structural demand growth tied to industrial applications—especially in solar energy and electric vehicles—which is outpacing domestic production. This dual push from both speculative and real-economy buyers is adding fuel to the current run.

Technically, Silver is on track to 61.8% projection of 31.65 to 37.28 from 36.24 at 39.71, or even further to 40 pscyholgical level. However, upside could be capped by medium term level of 100% projection of 21.92 to 34.83 from 28.28 at 41.20 on first attempt.

NZ BNZ services rises to 47.3, but outlook remains grim

New Zealand’s services sector showed mild improvement in June, with BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rising to 47.3 from May’s 44.1. Despite the gain, the index remains well below its long-run average of 52.9 and firmly in contraction territory. Subcomponents showed modest upticks—new orders rose from 43.4 to 48.8, employment edged up from 47.1 to 47.4, and activity/sales climbed to 44.5. Inventories just breached the 50-mark at 50.6.

Still, the broader backdrop remains discouraging. 66.2% of surveyed businesses offered negative comments, citing subdued consumer confidence, elevated living costs, and policy-related uncertainty. Public sector retrenchment, inflation, and rising interest rates continue to bite, while seasonal factors like winter and lower tourist activity weigh on demand. BNZ’s Doug Steel summed it up bluntly: “The timeline for New Zealand’s long-awaited economic recovery just keeps getting pushed further and further out.”

China’s exports growth accelerates to 5.8% yoy in June on tariff truce window

China’s exports rose 5.8% yoy in June, beating expectations of 5.0% yoy and marking a pickup from May’s 4.8% yoy. The improvement comes as exporters moved quickly to take advantage of the 90-day tariff truce with the US, front-loading shipments ahead of anticipated disruptions.

The stronger-than-expected performance helped lift China’s trade surplus to USD 114.8B, slightly above consensus and up from USD 103.2B in May.

Imports rose 1.1% yoy, the first positive reading of the year and a tentative sign of stabilization in domestic demand.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1665; (P) 1.1690; (R1) 1.1714; More...

EUR/USD is still extending the correction from 1.1829 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Downside should be 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, sustained break of 1.1630 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1474) instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Silver’s rally picked up pace on Monday, hitting its highest level since late 2011 after last week’s decisive upside breakout. The metal has surged alongside broad-based strength in precious metals, with Palladium reaching its highest since October 2024 and Gold rebounding to a three-week high. Renewed investor interest across the complex suggests increasing demand for portfolio diversification amid geopolitical and trade policy risks.

One notable driver has been rising demand out of India, where investors are shifting from Gold to Silver as a catch-up trade after years of underperformance. Silver is also seeing structural demand growth tied to industrial applications—especially in solar energy and electric vehicles—which is outpacing domestic production. This dual push from both speculative and real-economy buyers is adding fuel to the current run.

Technically, Silver is on track to 61.8% projection of 31.65 to 37.28 from 36.24 at 39.71, or even further to 40 psychological level. However, upside could be capped by medium term level of 100% projection of 21.92 to 34.83 from 28.28 at 41.20 on first attempt.

• Gold crosses above 3,355 resistance as tariffs threats return.
• Short-term bias is positive but key obstacles still lie ahead.
• Support at 3,300–3,325 critical for downside risk.

Gold opened Monday’s session with a mild upside gap at 3,363 and above its short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), following President Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on European Union and Mexican goods – raising them to 30% effective August 1.

Investors did not react aggressively, interpreting the move as another negotiating tactic by the U.S. president to accelerate progress in the trade talks. Nevertheless, Friday’s channel breakout, followed by Monday’s modest upside move, was enough to lift the price above the key 3,355 barrier – a level that has repeatedly capped bullish momentum since April.

The next upside target is the 3,390 resistance zone from June, followed by a tentative descending trendline drawn from April’s peak, currently near 3,420. A decisive break above this trendline could pave the way for a retest of the previous high at 3,450, with the psychological 3,500 level coming into focus next. Further gains could even push the price toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the previous downleg at 3,570, and eventually to the round 3,600 mark.

However, with the stochastic oscillator nearing the 80 overbought threshold, a sustainable breakout above 3,420 cannot be taken for granted. On the downside, the support trendline between 3,300 and 3,325 will be closely monitored. If this floor gives way, selling pressure could intensify, dragging the price toward 3,245, and then potentially down to the 3,180–3,200 zone.

All in all, the precious metal could gain fresh bullish momentum in the coming sessions. However, whether it can strengthen its outlook above 3,420 – and more crucially, resume its record rally beyond 3,500 – remains to be seen.