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Hello fellow traders,

In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave charts of GOLD (XAUUSD) . As our members know we are long in GOLD from previous equal legs area. As a result, members are now benefiting from profits in positions that remain risk-free. Recently, the commodity completed another intraday correction within the Equal Legs zone. In the following sections, we will outline the current Elliott Wave count.

GOLD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 07.11.2025

GOLD has completed a 5-wave structure from the 3246.33 low, labeled as wave ((i)) in black. It is currently correcting in wave ((ii)) black, which is unfolding as a Double Three pattern. The correction appears incomplete at this stage. We anticipate further short-term weakness toward the Equal Legs area at 3290.56–3256.9. In that zone, we expect buyers to emerge and initiate another rally toward new highs. Therefore, we recommend avoiding short positions within this area.

GOLD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 07.11.2025

A few days later, GOLD completed the pullback exactly at the previously mentioned zone. As expected, the commodity found buyers and produced a decent bounce. Wave ((ii)) ended at the 3283.39 low. The short-term cycle from the July 9th low now shows a sequence of higher highs, confirming the continuation of the rally. While price remains above the 3283.39 low, the next expected target area is 3403.85–3432.44.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap reached $3.8 trillion (+4% in 24 hours) and began to update historical highs following the first cryptocurrency. Altcoins outside the top ten are gaining momentum, indicating an expansion of the rally and strengthening positive sentiment.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index is not off the charts, and at 74, it is only on the verge of entering the extreme greed zone. The market is not overheating, retaining its potential for further growth.

Bitcoin has switched to rally mode, constantly updating historical highs and adding almost 13% over the past seven days. This is important growth, as the last six days have seen an update of maximum values. The April-June growth and correction pattern makes us consider the $135K area a potential big target in the short term.

News Background

Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have continued for the fifth week in a row, and for 11 of the last 13 weeks. According to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs over the past week amounted to $2.72 billion, the highest in the last seven weeks. Cumulative inflows since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 have increased to $52.36 billion.

Inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs in the US have continued for the ninth week in a row, and for 11 of the last 12 weeks. Net inflows into ETH ETFs last week amounted to $908 million, the highest in the entire year of trading. Total net inflows since the ETF’s launch in July 2024 have increased to $5.31 billion.

Improvements in the macroeconomic situation and growing interest from institutional investors have once again boosted interest in Bitcoin, according to Kronos Research. This reflects the growing perception of the first cryptocurrency as a ‘regulated long-term asset’ comparable to gold.

According to Arkham, on 10 July, Bhutan transferred 213.31 BTC ($23.7 million) to the Binance exchange. The exact reason for the transfer is unknown, but such transactions usually precede the sale of assets.

On 10 July, SharpLink Gaming purchased 10,000 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation (EF) for $25.7 million at an average price of $2,572.37. On 11 July, ETH exceeded the $3,000 mark for the first time since early February.

Grayscale Investments has presented a list of 29 cryptocurrencies that should be included in investment products to diversify client assets.

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $3,350 resistance level. WTI Crude Oil price climbed higher above $66.50 and might extend gains.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

• The gold price started a fresh surge and traded above $3,330.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,350 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude Oil price started a decent increase above the $66.60 resistance levels.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.15 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,280 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,330 and $3,350 resistance levels.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,360. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,365 resistance zone. A high was formed near $3,373 and the price is now consolidating.

On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,350 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,282 swing low to the $3,373 high.

Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,350. The next major support sits at $3,330 and the 50% Fib retracement level.

A downside break below the $3,330 support might send the price toward $3,300. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,280 support zone.

Immediate resistance is near the $3,370 level. The next major resistance is near $3,380. An upside break above $3,380 could send Gold price toward $3,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,420 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent upward move from $65.50. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $66.50 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The bulls pushed the price above the $67.00 and $67.50 resistance levels. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.15.

The recent high was formed at $67.63 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65.54 swing low to the $67.63 high.

The RSI is now above the 60 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the $67.15 zone. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near the $66.60 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level, below which the price could test the $65.50 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $64.70. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $63.50 support zone.

If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $67.85. The next major resistance is near the $70.00 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.50 level.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 147.42 on Monday. Early in the session, the yen staged a partial recovery from last week’s losses amid heightened global trade risks, but the rebound proved short-lived as the currency resumed its downward trajectory.

Former US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective from 1 August. In response, officials from both the EU and Mexico signalled their willingness to engage in further negotiations with the US administration, hoping to secure more favourable terms.

Meanwhile, the EU is broadening consultations with other nations affected by the tariffs, including Canada and Japan, potentially paving the way for a coordinated response.

Domestic data from Japan revealed that core machinery orders fell by 0.6% in May (month-on-month), reaching ¥913.5 billion. While still negative, the figure outperformed expectations of a 1.5% decline and marked a notable improvement over April’s steep 9.1% drop.

With a busy week ahead, further volatility in USD/JPY is anticipated.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to advance within the third wave of its corrective movement towards 148.65. Today, we expect the pair to test this level before a potential pullback to 145.65 (testing from above). Subsequently, another upward wave could materialise, targeting at least 150.66. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points firmly upward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair consolidating around 147.17, with the current structure suggesting further upside towards 148.65. Today, we anticipate an initial push to 148.18, followed by a retracement to 147.17, before another rise towards 148.65. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line positioned at 50 and trending upward.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY pair remains on an upward trajectory, supported by trade policy uncertainties and technical bullish signals. Traders should prepare for potential swings as the market digests incoming economic and political developments.

Major US stock indices extended their losses from last Friday into today’s Asian session. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures dropped by 0.5% at the time of writing, weighed down by renewed tariff anxieties. US President Trump issued a surprise escalation, threatening the European Union with a 30% tariff—an increase from April’s proposed 20%, if no improved trade terms are reached before the 1 August deadline.

This move follows a series of aggressive tariff demand letters sent to US trading partners over the past week. Hopes for a preliminary US-EU trade deal were dashed after recent media reports hinted at progress, only for negotiations to hit fresh roadblocks. Germany’s DAX reflected this disappointment with a second straight loss of 0.8% last Friday.

Asia stocks resilient on strong China, Singapore data

Despite Trump’s latest tariff salvo, Asia Pacific stock markets remained broadly resilient, supported by upbeat economic data from China and Singapore.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index posted a third consecutive gain, rising 0.4% intraday as it rebounded from its 20-day moving average, now acting as support near 24,050. Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI), known for its defensive and dividend-yielding components, rallied 0.4%, approaching the psychological 4,100 level. It’s on track for a sixth consecutive record close. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%, while Australia’s ASX 200 remained flat.

China and Singapore surprise to the upside in key data

China’s June exports rose 5.8% year-on-year to US$325 billion, beating expectations (consensus: 5%). The growth was driven by manufacturers shifting focus to alternative markets amid the ongoing trade friction with the US. Notably, exports to 10 South Asian countries surged by 17% year-on-year.

Singapore also exceeded expectations. Its Q2 GDP grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted), beating forecasts of 0.7%, and reversing Q1’s revised 0.5% contraction—helping the city-state avoid a technical recession.

Gold rebounds on safe-haven demand amid tariff tensions

Gold (XAU/USD) regained momentum last Friday, rallying 0.9% to a three-week high and moving back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Safe-haven demand has resurfaced, particularly after gold’s recent underperformance relative to silver.

In today’s Asia session, the precious metal edged up another 0.1%, testing the key intermediate resistance at US$3,360. It briefly hit an intraday high of US$3,374. Technical signals remain constructive, and a daily close above US$3,360 could confirm a new bullish phase over the next several sessions.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Gold (XAU/USD) looks set for a potential minor bullish breakout

Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 14 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Recent price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have managed to retest and stage a rebound from its medium-term ascending trendline in place since the 31 December 2024 low.

It has formed a minor “Double Bottom” bullish reversal configuration, taking into account the two swing lows of 30 June and 9 July. Right now, Gold (XAU/USD) is breaking above the US$3,360 intermediate neckline resistance of the minor “Double Bottom” configuration (see Fig 2)

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash a bullish momentum condition. Watch the US$3,328 key short-term pivotal support (also the 50-day moving average) for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$3,400 and US$3,450 in the first step.

On the other hand, a break below US$3,328 negates the bullish tone for another choppy minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at US$3,293/3,282.

Last week, while analysing the potential for a new all-time high in Bitcoin’s price, we highlighted that the amount of BTC held on cryptocurrency exchanges had dropped to its lowest level in months. This dynamic creates the potential for accelerated price growth should a wave of buyers – including institutional participants – enter the market.

It appears this may help explain the sharp rally in BTC/USD, which surged by over 12% in the past seven days, breaking through the key psychological resistance level of $120K for the first time in history.

Market sentiment is being further bolstered by US Crypto Week, which kicks off today. How might the situation develop from here?

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

Over the past three months, Bitcoin’s price action has been forming an ascending channel (highlighted in blue), with the current BTC/USD rate sitting near its upper boundary. Most, if not all, oscillators added to the chart would now indicate strong overbought conditions.

Given this setup, it is reasonable to assume that the market is vulnerable to a potential pullback. However, such a correction is unlikely to lead to a fundamental shift in sentiment.

We may see a repeat of the price pattern observed in May–June:

• Price consolidates near the midline of the channel;
• Bulls break out, pushing the price toward the upper boundary and creating a zone of imbalance (Fair Value Gap in the Smart Money Concept) – highlighted with a purple rectangle;
• Price retests the imbalance zone following a rejection from the upper channel boundary.

It is worth noting that the current zone is further supported from below by the $111.5K level, which previously acted as a significant resistance. As long as Bitcoin’s price remains above this threshold, any short-selling strategies may carry elevated risk.

FXOpen offers the world's most popular cryptocurrency CFDs*, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Floating spreads, 1:2 leverage — at your service. Open your trading account now or learn more about crypto CFD trading with FXOpen.

*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1665; (P) 1.1690; (R1) 1.1714; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Correction from 1.1829 is in progress but downside should be 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, sustained break of 1.1630 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1474) instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.53; (P) 147.03; (R1) 147.91; More...

Focus is now on 148.01 resistance as rebound from 142.66 extends. Firm break there will indicate that consolidations pattern from 148.64 has completed. Further rise should then be seen to resume the rally from 139.87, to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3454; (P) 1.3520; (R1) 1.3559; More...

GBP/USD's pullback from 1.3787 extends lower today and deeper fall could be seen. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.3369 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3680 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3787. Firm break of 1.3787 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. However, firm break of 1.3369 will bring deeper correction back to 1.2706/3206 support zone.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3019) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7953; (P) 0.7968; (R1) 0.7981; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations continues above 0.7871. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.