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Key Highlights

• GBP/USD corrected gains from the 1.3800 resistance.
• It found support near 1.3580 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
• EUR/USD started a consolidation phase below the 1.1820 resistance.
• Gold prices could extend losses if there is a move below $3,280.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound failed to clear 1.3800 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a downside correction and traded below the 1.3700 level.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3370 swing low to the 1.3788 high. The pair even dipped below the 1.3650 level before the bulls appeared.

The pair found support near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3370 swing low to the 1.3788 high at 1.3580. It remained stable above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3660 level. The next key resistance sits near the 1.3720 level. A close above the 1.3720 level could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.3750 resistance. The next major stop for the bulls could be near the 1.3800 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 1.3580 level. The next key support sits near 1.3550. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.3500 support zone.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to extend gains above the 1.18200 resistance and recently started a short-term downside correction.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• EcoFin Meeting
• NFIB Business Optimism Index for June 2025 – Forecast 98.7, versus 98.8 previous.

The Australian Dollar is coming off several weeks of strength, buoyed by broad market optimism and fading tariff concerns that have lifted global growth sentiment—typically a supportive backdrop for the AUD and other commodity-linked currencies.

Australia’s economy remains resilient, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expects the number to gradually rise toward year-end, adding to the case for further monetary easing.

With that in mind, markets widely expect a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming RBA meeting (Current 3.85% expected to get to 3.60%). While this move is largely priced in, surprises remain possible, especially as inflation—though easing—may be reignited by Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, which could spill over into Australia through trade channels.

AUD moves aren’t purely driven by domestic factors. Keep an eye on the US Dollar, which is rebounding to start the week, as well as China’s economic trajectory. Any slowdown from the Middle Kingdom—Australia’s top trading partner—could weigh on the Aussie, though current data doesn’t yet reflect such weakness.

The Rate Decision is coming up overnight at 00:30 A.M ET.

Australian Dollar Multi-Timeframe Chart Analysis

Weekly Chart — Where do we stand in the bigger picture?

The 2024 downtrend has been met with a sharp rebound as AUD buyers (and USD Sellers) came in strong – particularly after the Liberation Day selloff and consequent V-Shape rebound.

Prices are approaching the secular downtrend which will be essential to monitor – structural flows are leading to US Dollar outflows but time will tell if this effect is strong enough for an AUD Breakout. Despite cuts, as long as the Australian Economy stays strong, this idea might be gradually playing out.

Prices are consolidating on the weekly, hanging between the 20 week Moving average acting as support (0.6386) and the 200-week MA acting as longer-term resistance at 0.6718, 2 full handles from current prices.

Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Prices have came back into the upwards Daily started that had started to form in March, with many touches on the upper and lower bounds confirming the strength of such a trend.

However, trends tend to change on key events such as tomorrow's rate decision; as long as there is no surprise to current cut expectations, players shouldn't expect any sudden breakout – watch for your pre-existing orders which may be triggered by rising volatility in the case of a surprise!

Daily levels to watch:

Resistance Levels:

• Daily resistance 0.6670 to 0.6740
• 0.6655 higher bound of the upwards channel
• 0.6580 most recent swing highs

Support Levels:

• 0.65 psychological level
• 0.6475 MA 50 and lower bound of channel
• Daily Support 0.63 to 0.64

Hourly Chart

AUDUSD's short-term momentum is getting slightly bearish with the 50-H MA breaching the 200-MA, however technicals might not be as strong as markets approach the overnight Rate Decision.

Still, last week's strong US data has led to a strong reversal that has stalled at the 0.64864 immediate lows – a key level to watch for immediate strength analysis.

Momentum is back closer to neutral after a double bottom in RSI and the re-appearance of some USD Sellers.

For immediate resistance, watch the 0.6550 MA Confluence zone, and further upside reaction to last week highs.

Safe Trades!

Metals have seen a strong multi-year performance, largely driven by post-COVID currency depreciation. The widespread use of Quantitative Easing (QE) and balance sheet expansions by central banks put fiat currencies under pressure, giving precious metals a solid fundamental tailwind.

In contrast, the 2022 global rate-hiking cycle helped restore some purchasing power to fiat currencies, temporarily capping gains in metals as tighter monetary policy reined in inflation expectations – but this effect has waned as Policy Rates have started to go down globally since their 2023 peaks.

A comparable period unfolded between 2004 and 2011, when Gold rose from around $400 to a high of $1,880 per ounce, propelled by QE1 following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Gold has more than doubled its value since October 2022 lows and has dragged other precious metals upwards such as Platinum, Palladium or Silver.

Silver followed a similar trajectory, rallying from $6 to an all-time high of $49.80, before retreating in the years that followed. This correction was in part driven by a supply response, as miners ramped up production in response to soaring prices.

Silver Analysis from Monthly to 4H Timeframes

Silver Monthly Chart

Silver Monthly Chart, from 2002 to Today July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The precious metal is currently trading in the 2012 range ($27 to $37) after breaking out from the previous $15 to $27 2020 to 2023 range.

Prices seem to be arriving close to overbought in the monthly chart, however the RSI is not there yet and the past few months of buying have printed strong thrust into the ongoing trend.

The metal is currently forming the premises of a monthly upwards channel, indicating potential resistance around $41 but has first to overpass the 2012 $37.50 highs to get there.

Silver Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Lower timeframes give more clarity on how the current impulsive move up is going – a major push from Feb 2024 $24 lows took the metal to $32 before retracting and forming the ongoing steeper Weekly Channel.

Liberation Day created a sharp selloff from $34 to $28 before the general market recovery and Dollar outflows took prices to decade highs.

Prices have consolidated largely since the Israel-Iran $37.31 highs, taking the RSI from overbought to current neutral levels – as the 20 Day Moving Average finally caught up, the rest is to see if buyers use this technical support to generate another impulsive move.

Silver 4H Chart

Silver 4H Chart July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Silver has been consolidating in a $2 range from $35 to $37 particularly since the Israel-Iran war created newfound demand for safe-havens and Silver, despite not being the first asset for flight-to-safety, can still be considered as such.

An interesting pattern can be in developments in the 4H Chart, as the selling from the weekly open just stopped at its 50 period MA, close to the middle of the range.

A failure to regain the lower part of the range substantially raises the probability of an upside breakout.

In the meantime, prices will have to at least hold this week's $36.15 lows.

Levels to add on your charts:

Support Levels:

• $36.40 MA 50 immediate support
• $35 to $35.50 last swing lows + 4H MA 200

Resistance Levels:

• $37 to $37.50 (2012 highs)
• Potential Resistance $38 to $38.5 (Fibonacci extension)
• Potential Resistance + High of Weekly Channel $39 to $40 (1.618 Fib extension)

Safe Trades!

USDJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• USDJPY reversed from long-term support level 142.50
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 148.00

USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the long-term support level 142.50 (which has been steadily reversing the price from August of 2024, as can be seen from the daily USDJPY chart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the end of June.

Given the strength of the support level 142.50 and the strongly bearish yen sentiment seen today, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 148.00 (top of the previous waves 4, (1) and 1).

NZDUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6100
•  Likely to fall to support level 0.5950

NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.6100 (which has been steadily reversing the price from October, as can be seen from the daily NZDUSD chart below) – intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from April.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6100 stopped the previous medium-term impulse ABC correction (2) from the start of April.

Given the strength of the resistance level 0.6100, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5950.

Gold price fell to one-week low on Monday after bulls repeatedly failed on approach to pivotal barrier at $3349 (50% retracement of $3452/$3246 bear-leg / daily Kijun-sen), with stronger dollar on risk aversion adding pressure on metal’s price.

Fresh weakness cracked psychological $3300 level, but bears were unable to clearly break lower, that keeps key support at $3282 (daily Ichimoku cloud top) intact for now.

Subsequent bounce (still limited) adds to potential scenario of rejection at $3300 and formation of bear-trap pattern that would open way for stronger recovery, although more work at the upside (lift and close above $3325 broken Fibo level) will be required to confirm scenario.

Caution on still predominantly bearish daily studies (negative momentum, 10/20/30 MA’s in bearish setup) that may keep the downside vulnerable while the price stays below $3325.

Look for initial bullish signal on break above $3325, with lift above $3350 to confirm, while break through $3360/65 (July 2/3 double-top) to bring bulls fully in play.

On the other hand, loss of $3300 handle would weaken near-term structure, but penetration into daily cloud would signal that bears regained control and risk retest of key $3250 support zone.

Res: 3325; 3345; 3353; 3365.
Sup: 3300; 3286; 3282; 3270.

Stock markets reopened after a prolonged holiday weekend with no major headlines disrupting the recent streak of red-hot bullish sentiment.

US President Trump is expected to begin sending formal letters to international counterparts, outlining his administration’s 10% tariff plans—or potentially higher—alongside trade deals that have been in development since the early months of his mandate.

Elsewhere, China has moved to restrict EU healthcare device imports, though this has done little to dent global market confidence, with most major indices trading in the green to start the week.

In the FX space, volatility may pick up ahead of interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with both central banks under increased scrutiny amid diverging global monetary paths.

The US open is mixed, with indices hesitating as key technical levels come into play. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now within 0.5% of its all-time highs, positioning this week as potentially pivotal for further upside momentum.

Let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the US 30 to identify potential headwinds and chart out the zones that could either cap the current rally or open the door to fresh record highs.

Dow Jones Multi-Timeframe Analysis from Daily to 30m Charts

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dow has completed a 10 day streak where buyers completely took the momentum, with prices forming a Tight Bull Channel that eventually took the index to current overbought RSI Levels.

Key 50 and 200 Day moving averages are about to form a Golden Cross which has historically been a bullish technical catalyst for buyers.

Let's take a look closer to spot if lower timeframes also point to that direction.

Dow Jones 4H Chart

Dow Jones 4H Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Prices have followed a steep upwards trendline and are still comfortably above its key Moving Averages – look at current reactions to the MA 20 acting as immediate support in confluence with the steep upward trendline that buyers will need to hold to keep their strong hand.

After a consolidation at the highs following positive NFP surprises that got slowed down by highly-overbought indications on the RSI, the lack of retracement still shows high probabilities of buyers staying strong – any break from here would require further analysis as the week develops.

The picture is however not all green with Bearish catalysts that could be at the front door: Traders should keep an eye on Fears from the infamous Trump Tariffs.

Dow Jones 30m Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Short timeframe momentum is closer to neutral after a 400 point consolidation – The 30m 50-period MA is getting flat and buyers will have to maintain above 44,670 to avoid giving up their home-court advantage.

Watch for headlines relative to tariffs to see how markets interpret what could be another key week to global sentiment.

Don't forget that asset managers have high expectations for Equity performance, and while they aren't all long indices, the trend is slowly going that way.

Markets were also trading around a theme of downplayed effect from tariffs, therefore watch for a switch in that aspect.

Dow Jones vs Nasdaq Comparison Chart

Dow Jones / Nasdaq Comparison chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq-to-Dow Jones ratio remains anchored near the 2.0 mark, with weekly convergence patterns suggesting a potential slowdown in the multi-year downtrend—possibly even setting the stage for a reversal.

The RSI remains subdued but has begun to turn upward, indicating early signs of momentum shift.

Notably, during recent low-volume sessions, we've seen preliminary signs of this trend playing out, with pre-open futures once again showing strength in the US 30 and relative weakness in the Nasdaq.

The coming weeks will be key in determining whether this rotation continues to gain traction.

Safe Trades!

Gold prices have started the week on the back foot as hopes grow over a barrage of trade deal announcements are expected this week.

The initial July 9 deadline by the Trump administration approaches but there has been mixed messaging which may limit Gold's downside potential ahead of the announcements

Federal Reserve Minutes and US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a bit of an improvement with USD demand rising slightly on tariff hopes. Positive developments on the trade deal front may help the US Dollar regain some of its shine and thus weigh on Gold prices.

Stronger Jobs data last week has also kept the US Dollar supported with markets continuing to price in a 95% probability of no rate cut at this month's FOMC meeting. Markets are still eyeing cuts this year as President Trump also ramped up his rhetoric with regard to the Fed and the lack of movement on rates.

For now though, markets are pricing in around a 67.4 percent chance of a 25bps rate cut in September. The data comes courtesy of the LSEG workspace central bank watch is still pricing in two rate cuts this year.

Source: LSEG Workspace

Middle East Tensions Rear their Head

The precious metal may find some support following renewed strikes over the weekend by the Israeli military on Yemen and Lebanon. Any indication of an uptick of geopolitical risk and markets may once again flock toward safe havens.

Trade Deal Announcements to Drive Markets this Week

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the economic calendar is rather quiet with the exception of the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday evening.

Trade deal announcements will likely be the key focus which will drive overall market sentiment and risk appetite. A short while ago we heard from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who told CNBC that “We are going to have several trade announcements in the next 48 hours”. A bold statement and one which markets hope will finally come to fruition and arrest the uncertainty that has dragged on since the start of the year.

Such a move could weigh on Gold prices especially if markets perceive the announcements as being positive. Alternatively, if the deals do not please market participants this could result in a bounce for Gold prices.

Either way trade deals will be the main driving force for volatility and market moves this week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold is on the back foot at present with the technical picture also showing signs of the uncertainty.

Since bottoming out on June 30, Gold has broken structure on the four-hour chart hinting that bulls may have resumed control.

This was then followed up by lower highs and lower lows, which could be a sign of the uncertainty in markets at present.

Looking at the four-hour (H4) chart below, i have drawn on a fibonacci retracement with the precious metal bouncing today just shy of the golden pocket area of 61.8%.

This begs the question, are we in line for another leg higher?

Given that trade deal announcements are on the horizon it will be interesting to see how this develops over the coming days.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, July 7, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 3300
• 3291
• 3271

Resistance

• 3325
• 3354
• 3365

Markets

Markets are in outright waiting modus. It’s no waiting for Godot. US president Trump for sure will come up with high profile announcements on trade/tariffs vis-à-vis US trading partners as the July 9 deadline of reduced tariffs (mostly 10%) expires. As was often the case since Liberation Day, there is little visibility on what to expect. What will be announced also remains subject to tactical or other twists. The US administration will start sending letters to trading partners at noon ET today. US Treasury Secretary Bessent today also said that the US will make several announcements on trade deals in the next 48 hours. Some countries might reach a (framework) agreement before July 9. Others simply will be informed on the new tariffs the US intends to impose (from August 1). For others, a pause might be extended as US judges them to continue talks in good faith. Still, the content and detailed implementation of any (framework) deal agreed upon remains uncertain. This also applies to the sectoral tariffs and the likes of the fentanyl levy. This morning US president Trump even added a potential 10% tax levy on countries ‘aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS’. Asian equities this morning mostly opened with modest losses. European indices overcame initial weakness (EuroStoxx 50 +0.5%). Comments from the European Commission indicated that the EMU is making progress on an ‘agreement in principle’ with the US. US indices (all near record levels) are losing modestly (S&P 500 -0.4%). Is this a sign markets are expecting an orderly/acceptable outcome? For now, we would rather label it agnosticism. Bond markets resume a modest steepening move. German yields add between 2 (2-y) and 3.5 bps (30-y) The US 2-y yield trades close to unchanged, but the long end adds 3.25 bps. On FX markets, the dollar outperforms. Maybe a ‘divide-et-impera’ US trade strategy, with a different approach against individual counties is (temporarily?) seen as a negative for those currencies and a (temporary?) positive for the dollar. DXY trades near 97.4. BRICS currencies like the South-African rand, the Chinese yuan or the Indian rupee feel some pressure after the Trumps’ call on anti-US BRICS policies. However, also cyclically sensitive currencies like the Aussie (AUD/USD 0.65 from 0.656) and the kiwi dollar (USD/NZD 0.60 from 0.606) are hit hard. EUR/USD also declines from the 1.178 area to currently trade near 1.173. The yen underperforms the euro (EUR/JPY 170.7, USD/JPY 145.6). Headlines recently suggested difficult trade negotiations between the US and Japan. (Fiscal) uncertainty ahead of the July Upper House elections maybe also weighs on the yen and on Japanese LT bonds (30-y + 10 bps at 2.98%). Sterling regains some ground against the euro (EUR/GBP 86.10) after last week’s fiscal driven setback.

News & Views

Swedish inflation accelerated well beyond expectations in June. The headline number (using a fixed interest rate) printed 0.5% m/m (compared to the 0.1% consensus estimate) and resulted in a 2.9% yearly outcome. It’s sharing the February 2025 reading to be the fastest since January 2024. The measure excluding energy hit a similar 1.5 year high at 0.7% m/m and 3.3% y/y (from 2.5% in May). Today’s print caught markets off guard. Money markets were expecting another rate cut by the Swedish central bank (Riksbank) amid weakening data lately, including a lower-than-expected May CPI, rising unemployment and poor retail sales. The Riksbank itself left the door ajar by saying in its statement that “The forecast for the policy rate entails some probability of another cut this year.” Investors are now no longer certain of that to happen, offering the Swedish currency a boost today. EUR/SEK retreats from 11.26 to 11.16. Swap yields jump up to 8 bps at the front end of the curve.

The UK government through a spokesman for prime minister Starmer refused to rule out a wealth tax during a reporters briefing today. UK Chancellor Reeves is facing a shortfall of up to £30bn going into the October Budget over a series of U-turns in policy, including last week’s one in the welfare bill that wiped out £5bn in expected savings. Reeves prior to the 2024 general elections ruled out such a tax but is facing growing calls from Labour backbenchers.