Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9336; (P) 0.9350; (R1) 0.9364; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in 0.9305/9428 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.9428/45 resistance zone will resume the rebound from 0.9218. On the downside, break of 0.9305 will bring retest of 0.9218 low instead.

In the bigger picture, while downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in W MACD, there is no sign of bottoming yet. EUR/CHF is still staying below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9433) and well inside long term falling channel. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9660 resistance holds. Break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption of down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1667; (P) 1.1729; (R1) 1.1770; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1829. Downside should be contained by 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.73; (P) 145.48; (R1) 146.83; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 142.66/148.01 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.66 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3563; (P) 1.3614; (R1) 1.3652; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.3787. Deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 1.3369 support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3787 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2985) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7948; (P) 0.7970; (R1) 0.8003; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 0.7871. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7313 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3575; (P) 1.3596; (R1) 1.3625; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pattern from 1.3538 is in the third leg. Further rise would be seen to 1.3797 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, firm break of 1.3538/55 support zone will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6463; (P) 0.6513; (R1) 0.6541; More...

AUD/USD rebounded notably today but stays below 0.6589 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Overall, further rally is still expected as long as 0.6372 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.6589 will resume the rise from 0.5913 and target 0.6713 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Aussie rallied sharply on Tuesday after RBA unexpectedly held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, defying widespread expectations for a 25bps cut. While a majority of economists had penciled in an easing move, the 6-3 vote revealed deep divisions within the Board. It's unclear whether RBA’s decision was influenced at the last minute by escalating global trade risks. The US has begun sending formal letters to key trade partners with new tariff schedules, creating significant uncertainty for export-dependent economies like Australia. Yet, broader Asian markets appeared relatively calm. Equity indexes across the region posted modest gains

On the trade front, US President Donald Trump confirmed that 14 countries will face new blanket tariffs starting August 1. Signed letters detailed levies ranging from 25% to 40%. Trump’s executive order also pushed back the original July 9 deadline by three weeks, offering a narrow window for countries to negotiate bilateral deals.

The list of countries receiving tariff notices is sweeping and includes several key US trading partners: Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand. The rates vary—25% for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia; 30% for South Africa and Bosnia; 32% for Indonesia; 35% for Bangladesh and Serbia; 36% for Cambodia and Thailand; and 40% for Laos and Myanmar. The letters also warned that goods rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs would be penalized.

It's surprising that close US allies Japan and South Korea are also at the center of the storm, now facing 25% tariffs. Japan confirmed receipt of a proposal offering a potential reprieve if negotiations proceed swiftly. Prime Minister Ishiba said revisions to the letter remain possible depending on Tokyo’s response. South Korea echoed a similar stance, viewing the delay as a chance to resolve tariff concerns amicably.

The European Union was excluded from the list of affected countries. EU sources confirmed no tariff letters were received, and the bloc remains focused on finalizing a deal by mid-week. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent “good exchange” with Trump was cited as a positive sign, though officials remain divided over the depth of any agreement.

In FX markets, Aussie leads gains for the day so far, followed by Kiwi and Euro. Dollar lags behind, alongside Yen and Loonie. Sterling and the Swiss Franc are trading mid-pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.23%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.78%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.58%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.47%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.05 at 1.488. Overnight, DOW fell -0.94%. S&P 500 fell -0.79%. NASDAQ fell -0.92%. 10-year yield jumped 0.047 to 4.395.

RBA skips July cut, prefers to wait a little more for clarity

RBA held its cash rate target at 3.85%, opting not to deliver the widely expected 25bps cut. The decision, passed by a 6-3 majority, reflected cautious optimism as the central bank noted more balanced inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market. However, the Board stopped short of declaring victory on inflation and flagged considerable uncertainty in the domestic and global outlook.

In its statement, RBA said it could afford to “wait for a little more information” to ensure inflation is sustainably heading toward its 2.5% target. The Board remains concerned about both demand and supply-side uncertainty, particularly in light of volatile global trade policy. RBA stressed that monetary policy remains "well-positioned" to respond quickly if conditions deteriorate.

RBA also issued a measured warning on the risks stemming from U.S. tariffs and global trade policy shifts, noting that while extreme outcomes may be avoided, the uncertainty itself could weigh on demand. Financial markets have rebounded on hopes of compromise, but the RBA highlighted the risk that firms and households could delay spending amid the policy fog.

Australia's NAB business confidence rises to 5, conditions rebound to 9

Australia’s business sentiment improved sharply in June, with NAB Business Confidence rising from 2 to 5, its highest trend level in over a year. Business Conditions surged from 0 to 9 after weakening for five straight months. The rebound was broad-based, with trading conditions jumping from 5 to 15, profitability returning to positive territory from -5 at 4, and employment conditions edging up from to 3.

On the pricing side, signals were mixed. Labour cost growth eased slightly from 1.6% to 1.5% (quarterly equivalent), while purchase costs rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. Final product price growth ticked up from 0.5% to 0.6%, although retail price growth slowed to 0.6%, hinting at easing consumer price pressures despite supply-side stickiness.

NAB’s Gareth Spence said the data suggest momentum may be picking up into the second half of 2025. “While we know the monthly survey can be volatile, the hope is at least some of these trends will be sustained,” he noted, calling the jump in both confidence and conditions a positive surprise amid ongoing global uncertainty.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6463; (P) 0.6513; (R1) 0.6541; More...

AUD/USD rebounded notably today but stays below 0.6589 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Overall, further rally is still expected as long as 0.6372 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.6589 will resume the rise from 0.5913 and target 0.6713 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

RBA held its cash rate target at 3.85%, opting not to deliver the widely expected 25bps cut. The decision, passed by a 6-3 majority, reflected cautious optimism as the central bank noted more balanced inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market. However, the Board stopped short of declaring victory on inflation and flagged considerable uncertainty in the domestic and global outlook.

In its statement, RBA said it could afford to “wait for a little more information” to ensure inflation is sustainably heading toward its 2.5% target. The Board remains concerned about both demand and supply-side uncertainty, particularly in light of volatile global trade policy. RBA stressed that monetary policy remains "well-positioned" to respond quickly if conditions deteriorate.

RBA also issued a measured warning on the risks stemming from U.S. tariffs and global trade policy shifts, noting that while extreme outcomes may be avoided, the uncertainty itself could weigh on demand. Financial markets have rebounded on hopes of compromise, but the RBA highlighted the risk that firms and households could delay spending amid the policy fog.

Full RBA statement here.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.

Inflation has continued to moderate.

Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. In the March quarter, headline inflation, which has partly been affected by temporary cost of living relief, was at the midpoint of the target range while trimmed mean inflation was at 2.9 per cent. The baseline forecast in May was for underlying inflation to continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path. While recent monthly CPI Indicator data suggest that June quarter inflation is likely to be broadly in line with the forecast, they were, at the margin, slightly stronger than expected. With the cash rate 50 basis points lower than five months ago and wider economic conditions evolving broadly as expected, the Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis.

The outlook remains uncertain.

Uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated. While the final scope of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries remains unknown, financial market prices have rebounded with an expectation that the most extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided. Trade policy developments are nevertheless still expected to have an adverse effect on global economic activity, and there remains a risk that households and firms delay expenditure pending greater clarity on the outlook.

Setting aside overseas developments, private domestic demand appears to have been recovering gradually, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.

At the same time, various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Looking through quarterly volatility, wages growth has softened from its peak but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.

There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. The March quarter national accounts confirmed that domestic demand has been picking up over the past six months. The forecasts in May were for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as real incomes rise. There is a risk that the pick-up is a little slower than earlier expected, which could result in continued subdued growth in aggregate demand and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected. Alternatively, labour market outcomes may prove stronger than expected, given the signal from a range of leading indicators.

There are also uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of recent monetary policy easing and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the balance between demand and supply for goods and services, tight conditions in the labour market and continued weak productivity outcomes.

Maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority.

The Board continues to judge that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and the labour market remains strong. Nevertheless it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply. The Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis. It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.

The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

Decision

The Board has decided to publish an unattributed record of votes in the post-meeting statement. Today’s policy decision was made by majority; 6 in favour, 3 against.