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Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose from 0.2 to 4.5 in July, its highest since February 2022. The improvement was broad-based: Current Situation Index climbed from -13.0 to -7.3, and Expectations strengthened from 14.3 to 17.0. This marks the third consecutive gain across all components—fulfilling what Sentix calls the “triple rule” for identifying an economic turning point.

“The July data indicate a sustained upturn,” Sentix noted, adding that the recovery is now gaining in breadth. This aligns with recent data showing stabilization in business activity and firming consumer sentiment, suggesting that the bloc may be entering a more durable phase of expansion after years of stagnation.

Meanwhile, the improving sentiment is likely to narrow ECB’s scope for further rate cuts. Sentix’s policy barometer, released alongside the economic index, suggests that monetary policy will remain in a "comfort zone" rather than pivot toward aggressive easing.

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3800 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8670 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.3700 support against the US dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3650 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8600 zone.
• There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at 0.8630 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to stay above the 1.3750 pivot level. As a result, the British Pound started a fresh decline below 1.3720 against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.3700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.3650. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.3600 support zone. A low was formed near 1.3562 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the 1.3615 level. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3650 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3650.

The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3788 swing high to the 1.3562 low at 1.3675. A close above the 1.3670 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward the 1.3700 zone. The 61.8% Fib retracement level is at 1.3700. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3790.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.3615. If there is a downside break below the 1.3615 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.3560 zone, below which the pair could test 1.3500. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.3440 support.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from the 0.8500 zone. The Euro traded above the 0.8580 resistance level to enter a positive zone against the British Pound.

The pair settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8620. It traded as high as 0.8670 before a downside correction. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8507 swing low to the 0.8670 high.

However, the pair is stable above the 0.8600 support zone. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8507 swing low to the 0.8670 high at 0.8590.

A downside break below 0.8590 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward the 0.8545 support level. Any more losses might call for an extended drop toward the 0.8505 pivot zone.

The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair is facing resistance near the 0.8635 zone. A close above the 0.8635 level might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8670. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8700 level.

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On 2 July, on the EUR/USD chart, we noted that the rally—during which the pair had gained more than 6% since mid-May—was under threat, citing several technical signals, including:

→ proximity of the price to the upper boundary of the ascending channel;

→ overbought conditions on the RSI indicator;

→ nearby resistance from the Fibonacci Extension levels, around 1.18500.

Trading at the start of the week points to renewed US dollar strength. This became particularly evident with the opening of the European session, which triggered a decline in EUR/USD to the 1.17500 area.

It is reasonable to assume that the dollar’s strength against the euro is linked to early-week positioning by traders, who are anticipating news regarding US trade agreements.

According to Reuters, the United States is close to finalising several trade deals in the coming days and is expected to notify 12 other countries today about higher tariffs.

EUR/USD Technical Chart Analysis

The ascending channel established last week remains in play, with the following developments:

→ a dashed midline within the upper half of the channel has been breached by bearish pressure (as indicated by the arrow);

→ a series of lower highs in recent sessions suggests the formation of a downward trajectory, within which the price could move towards the channel median—or potentially test its lower boundary.

P.S. In the longer term, analysts at Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook, forecasting that EUR/USD could rise to 1.2700 by the end of 2027.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

As the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index reached a new all-time high last week. However, the price action suggests that the current pace of growth may not last.

Last week’s strong labour market data triggered a significant bullish impulse. However, the upward momentum has been entirely retraced (as indicated by the arrows).

The tax cut bill signed on Friday, 4 July, by Trump — which is expected to lead to a significant increase in US government debt — contributed to a modest bullish gap at today’s market open. Yet, as trading progressed during the Asian session, the index declined.

This suggests that fundamental news, which could have served as bullish catalysts, are failing to generate sustainable upward movement — a bearish sign.

Further grounds for doubt regarding the index's continued growth are provided by technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart, specifically:

→ a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;

→ price proximity to the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which is considered resistance.

It is reasonable to suggest that the market may be overheated and that bullish momentum is waning. Consequently, a correction may be forming — potentially involving a test of the 22,100 level. This level acted as resistance from late 2024 until it was broken by strong bullish momentum in late June.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Most major Asia Pacific equity indices started the week on a weaker note, as investors turned cautious ahead of the expiration of the White House’s 90-day pause on higher global reciprocal tariffs (excluding China), scheduled for Wednesday, 9 July.

Asia Pacific equities (except Singapore) weaken as tariff uncertainty looms

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 39,576, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged 0.3% lower to 23,845, though it remained above its 50-day moving average near 23,330. US equity futures were also under pressure, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini contracts declining 0.5% during Asia trading hours. Bucking the regional trend, Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 0.3% to notch a fresh all-time intraday high of 4,026.

Conflicting tariff signals from the White House

Confusion surrounding the tariff timeline added to market jitters. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated that the higher tariffs would be implemented from 1 August, suggesting room for a deadline extension. However, President Trump stated over the weekend that formal letters announcing tariff hikes would be sent out on Monday and Tuesday, ahead of the 9 July deadline.

US dollar gains; commodity currencies underperform

The US Dollar Index rebounded 0.2% to 97.15 but remained capped by its 20-day moving average near 97.85. In today’s Asian session, the Japanese yen (-0.4%), Australian dollar (-0.6%), and New Zealand dollar (-0.7%) were the weakest performers against the greenback.

Gold and Oil retreat

Gold (XAU/USD) slipped 0.8% intraday to US$3,310, falling below its 50-day moving average at US$3,320. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended last week’s losses, down 0.4% to US$66.85 per barrel, breaching its 200-day moving average at US$69.15. The decline was driven by oversupply concerns after OPEC+ agreed to increase August production by 548,000 barrels per day, well above market expectations of 411,000 barrels.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – GBP/USD at risk of breaking below 20-day moving average

Fig 2: GBP/USD minor trend as of 7 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The GBP/USD has failed to make any significant recoveries since last Wednesday, 7 July, dramatic intraday decline of -150 pips to a 6-day low of 1.3563 on the onset of a possible replacement of UK Chancellor Reeves.

Thereafter, the sterling pound has managed to bounce after a retest at 1.3570 (also the 20-day moving average) against the US dollar, but the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions since 4 July (see Fig 2).

These observations suggest a potential minor corrective decline sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase. Watch the 1.3670/3690 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 1.3570 exposes the next intermediate support at 1.3470 (also the 50-day moving average)

On the flip side, a clearance above 1.3690 invalidates the bearish scenario to kickstart another bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.3800/3830 and 1.3870.

Markets

With US markets closed for Independence Day and little in the way of important data, European markets couldn’t but take a cautious approach going into the weekend. With the US budget (One Big Beautifull Bill act) approved in Congress, the focus evidently turned the US July 9 tariff deadline. Markets recently balanced between hope and doubt. Without any guidance from US markets, doubt dominated European trading. The EuroStoxx50 ceded 1.02%. European bond markets showed a mild safe haven bid, with German yields trading between little changed (30-y) and -1.8 bps (2-y). ECB’s Villeroy again elaborated on the risk of inflation undershooting the target. However, for now markets understand that in current context of low visibility on trade/global growth, there is little reason to aggressively front run on additional ECB easing beyond the 1.75% cycle low that is currently discounted for the turn of the year. On FX markets the dollar (DXY) gained marginally (97.2) extending a tentative bottoming out process post Thursday’s ‘better-than-expected’ payrolls. Still EUR/USD closed slightly higher at 1.1778.

This morning, markets are trying to cope with multiple layers of uncertainty as the US will move to the next phase in imposing trade tariffs. President Trump is sending letters to (about) 12(+?) countries informing them on the higher tariffs they will face. However, US Treasury secretary Bessent indicated that these tariffs will start on August 1, providing some space for trading partners to do concessions. At the same time, the US still also intends to announce some ‘finalized’ (frame)work trade agreements. This set-up in a first instance leaves markets with plenty of uncertainty. Will August 1 become a next informal deadline? Which countries will get higher tariffs? Will they in some cases even go higher than the top tariffs announced on April 2? This morning, US president Trump even added a new layer of uncertainty as he threatened countries aligning with ‘anti-American policies of BRICS’ with an additional 10% tariff. However, the US president didn’t specify what this ‘alignment’ exactly contains. One can assume a series of unexpected ‘plot twists’ over the coming hours/days, which are impossible to anticipate. Markets this morning are starting the week with something between paralysis and a guarded risk off. Most Asian equities are trading with modest losses (<1.0%) and so do US equity futures. US Treasuries rise with yields declining about 2.5 bps at the short end of the curve. Even after last week’s payrolls apparently are still pondering the chances of a restart of the Fed easing cycle if the US data were to weaken later this year. The dollar gains marginally. The currencies of countries that face higher tariffs might be vulnerable in a fist stage. Even so, the post April 2 experience in mind, we assume that a broad-based USD rebound will be difficult in a context of US induced trade-protectionism. Aside from the trade storyline, the eco calendar this week contains few important (US) eco data. The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Wednesday) will decide on policy. Post the OBBB, we also keep a close eye on the first series of US Treasury auctions (3-y Tuesday; 10-y Wednesday, 30-y Thursday).

News & Views

Saudi Arabia will raise the price of its Arab light crude for Asian customers by more than expected in August. The price will trade $2.2 a barrel above the regional (Oman/Dubai) benchmark. The move is seen as the country being confident that the oil market is strong enough to take up the additional supplies the Saudi-led OPEC+ group is bringing. The oil cartel over the weekend agreed to add 548k barrels a day next month, an even bigger output hike than in each of the three previous months (411k). Brent oil gapped lower at the open this morning and is currently trading for $67.9 a barrel.

Rating agency Moody’s said Japan’s upcoming upper house election July 20th would be an important one for the country’s fiscal health and credit ratings if they end up in new tax cuts. The elections are crucial for prime minister Ishiba after his ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house after a snap poll in October last year. Among the campaign pledges are cash handouts to help households cope with inflation. But the government so far resisted calls from opposition parties for tax cuts. Moody’s said these could be a negative for its current A1 rating (with stable outlook, since December 2014), depending on how large and long-lasting they are.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1759; (P) 1.1775; (R1) 1.1796; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.1829. Downside should be contained by 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.11; (P) 144.56; (R1) 144.92; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3626; (P) 1.3654; (R1) 1.3672; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.3787. Deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 1.3369 support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3787 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2985) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7920; (P) 0.7940; (R1) 0.7958; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 0.7871. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7313 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.