Dollar Rises as Iran Risks Fade, Yen and Franc Soften
Yen and Swiss Franc weakened notably as imminent US-Iran war receded. Canadian Dollar also turned slightly softer as oil prices reversed this week's gains. Dollar is currently trying to ride on the development to extend recent rebound. But the real will probably lie in tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. For...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained, While Refined Product Stockpile Rose Sharply Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +14.77 mmb to 1287.84 mmb in the week ended January 3. Crude oil inventory gained +1.16 mmb (consensus: -3.57 mmb) to 431.06 mmb. Inventory in PADD 3 (Gulf...
Dollar Rebounds on Lesser Iran Risks and Strong Job Data
Dollar rebounds strongly as risk of imminent escalation in US-Iran tensions seem to have eased. It's reported there was no casualties caused by Iran's retaliation strikes against US forces in Iraq. The greenback is additionally supported by strong ADP employment report. Dollar follows New Zealand Dollar as second strongest....
Gold Driven Higher by Iran Tensions, Falling Yields and Rising Inflation Expectations
Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to evolve. The latest development is that Iran has launched over a dozen missiles at Iraqi bases hosting US and coalition troops. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced in a statement that the attack was done “in the name of martyr General Qassem...
Gold Jumps on Iran Retaliation, Markets Calmed by Trump’s Refrained Response
Dollar turns slightly softer, broadly, as Middle East tensions escalated after Iran's strike against US forces in Iraq. But loss is so far limited after President Donald Trump's refrained response. Markets generally calmed down for now, awaiting Trump's statement later in US morning. Yen and Canadian Dollar are the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil and Heating Oil Futures Gained Last Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 31. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +4 780 contracts to 554 857 for the week. Speculative long positions added +1 546 contracts while shorts dropped -3 234 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for USD Futures Shrank as Market Sentiment Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 31. NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped -1 177 contracts to 12 054. Speculative long positions added +907 contracts and short positions added +2 084 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures added...
Dollar Surges Broadly, Aussie Selloff Accelerates
Dollar is trading generally higher today and Middle East tensions seem to be out of traders' mind already, without any new developments. Instead, markets are focusing back on fundamentals and central bank expectations. Thus, Australian and New Zealand Dollars are suffering steep selloff despite return of risk appetite. In...
US Dollar May Lose Appeal this Year if Market Sentiment Improves and US Growth Slows
As the world’s largest reserve currency, movement of US dollar reflects its two roles. First, the strength of USD reflects the well being of the domestic economic developments. The greenback rises against other currencies if US’ economy is expected to perform better than others. Second, as the world’s biggest...
Yen Turns Soft as Sentiments Stabilized, No Further Escalation in Middle East Tensions
Market sentiments have generally stabilized, with no further escalation in Middle East tensions so far. Asian stocks are trading generally higher. US indices closed with slight gains after reversing initial losses. Focus should now be turned back to economic data. The currency markets is relatively mixed for today. New...
Euro and Sterling Rebound on Economic Data, Risk Aversions Continue
European majors stage a strong come back today as supported by positive data. Germany investor confidence recorded a strong rebound while UK PMI services was revised up. On the other hand, despite continuous risk aversion on Middle East tensions, Yen is pairing some of last week's gains. Dollar follows...
Middle East Tensions Continue to Dominate as Gold and Oil Surge
Middle East tensions continued to drive risk aversion in the markets as another week started. Stocks in Asia are generally in red, except in being mixed in China. Gold and oil price surge sharply on safe haven flows. Movements in the currency markets are relatively limited though. Canadian Dollar...
Yen, Gold and Oil Jumps as Geopolitical Risks Cloud Markets
The financial markets took a roller-coaster ride as 2020 started with a bang. US stocks jumped to new record higher to celebrate new year. But sentiments took a great turn after abrupt escalation in Middle-East tensions. Safe-haven flows into Gold, Yen and US treasuries came in unison. Oil prices...
Huge Decline in US Crude Oil Inventory Added Fuel to Price Rally
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.89 mmb to 1267 mmb in the week ended December 27. Crude oil inventory slumped -11.46 mmb (consensus: -3.29 mmb). Inventory declined in 4 out of 5 PADDs....
Risk Aversion Continues on US-Iran Conflicts
Risk aversion is the dominant theme today, with deep selloff in global equity markets. Treasury yields took a dive while gold and oil prices surge. Sentiments are rocked by abrupt escalation in Middle East tensions, after US military had killed Qasem Solemaini, the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard...
Oil Prices Jump after Airstrike in Iran. Impacts should be Short-Lived
Re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in Iran lifted oil prices. The front-month WTI crude oil contract, rallying more than +3%, spiked to 63.4 at one point. The corresponding Brent contract, gaining about +3.5%, jumped to a 7- month high of 69.16 earlier today. It was reported that a top Iranian...
Middle East Tensions Push Yen, Franc and Oil Higher
Yen and Swiss Franc jump sharply as markets turned from strong risk appetite to risk aversion. Despite record closes in US stocks, Asian markets tumble on fresh geopolitical tensions in Middle East. Oil prices also skyrocket together with gold, while treasury yields tumble. In the currency markets, Australian and...
Dollar Attempting Recovery Together With Yen, Market in Consolidation Mode
Dollar started the first trading day of 2020 with mild recovery, as the year end selloff seems to have passed the climax temporarily. Though, Yen is currently even stronger. On the other hand, European majors are generally lower for the moment. But overall, the forex markets appear to be...
Trade War Continues to Direct Outlook of USDCNY in 2020
As in last year, Chinese Yuan will remain directed by the US-China trade war in 2020. Although China’s economy continues to struggle and PBOC’s monetary policy is tilted to the accommodative side, CNY should stabilize against USD if trade negotiations are smooth. Elevated inflation should keep PBOC cautious in...
Dollar Soft in Holiday Trading, Sterling Extending Rebound
Dollar remains soft in mixed, quiet market in Asia. Trading is subdued, on holiday mood, with no reaction to Chinese data, nor the surprised PBoC RRR cut. Calendar is light today too, with PMI manufacturing final reading from, Eurozone, UK and US. There is little change in the weekly...