Brexit Update – New PM, Old Challenge
UK’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has about 3 months to deliver Brexit. With the EU reiterating refusal to amend the Withdrawal Agreement (the deal), Johnson should face the same challenge as his predecessor, Theresa May. We continue to expect Brexit with a deal, as the composition of the...
Dollar Extends Rebound, Sterling Soft after Brief Recovery
Sterling has a very brief recovery today after Boris Johnson reaches the most important checkpoint to become the next UK prime minister. But the Pound quickly lost momentum and is back under pressure. Though, for now, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Euro, then Sterling. On...
Dollar Rises in Mixed Markets, Resumes Rally Against Euro
Dollar strengthens broadly today and breaks near term support against Euro. There is no clear sign of strength in other pairs yet. More is needed to the greenback to prove itself. Meanwhile, markets remain relatively mixed elsewhere. Canadian Dollar is the strongest yet New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar...
Dollar Lacks Direction While US-China Trade Meeting Said to Resume
The forex markets are generally mixed today in rather quiet trading. Dollar lacks a clear direction despite rumors that US and China trade teams are going finally meet to resume negotiations. Canadian Dollar is currently the weakest one, followed by Sterling, and then Yen. On the other hand, New...
ECB Preview – Expecting Change in Forward Guidance and Hints on QE Resumption and Tiering
We expect ECB to implement more easing measures to stimulate the economy, and the timing would likely be in September. The July meeting, scheduled later this week, would be used to prepare the market further the easing package. Over the past month, ECB has sent strong signals that a...
Sterling in Focus in a Light Day, ECB and US GDP ahead
Asian markets are trading generally lower today as another weak starts. Though, weakness in stocks is relatively limited. Expectations on Fed and ECB easing remain generally firm. It looks like a matter of when and how much easing only. In the currency markets, Yen is trading mildly lower, followed...
Sterling Might Bottom While Euro Would Stay Pressured, Dollar Indecisive
Sterling, Dollar and Euro were the major focuses last week as they took turn in suffering selloffs. The Pound was pressured by increasing worries over no-deal Brexit. While it ended the week as the weakest one, late recovery argues that the worst could be past for Sterling for the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length for Crude Oil Futures Gained Most in Three Months
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +33 613 contracts to 423 762 for the week. Speculative long positions surged +39 788 contracts and shorts were up +6 175 contracts. For refined oil products, NET...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD as Fed Funds Rate Cut Approaches
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +276 contracts to 27 332. Speculative long positions slid -27 contracts while short positions dropped -303 contracts during the week.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
Canadian Dollar Dives on Retail Sales Miss, Euro Also Weak
Canadian Dollar drops sharply in early US session after big disappointment from retail sales data. The Loonie is currently trading as the weakest one for today. Euro is following as the second weakest as markets increases bet on ECB rate cut. Money markets are pricing in around 60% of...
Dollar Dives as Dovish Fedspeaks Reinforce Rate Cut Bets
Dollar stabilizes in Asian session after steep decline overnight. Bets on Fed's rate cut this month jumped after dovish comments from some key Fed officials. It seems that Fed might choose not to listen to the solid economic data released recently, but opt for the path of insurance. Treasury...
Dollar Shrugs Solid Manufacturing and Job Data, Euro Even Worse
Manufacturing and job data released the US are pretty solid. But dollar shrugs off and stays soft. Though, Euro is even weaker on rumor that ECB is considering to revamp their inflation target, which could give policymakers rooms to pursue monetary stimulus for longer. Canadian Dollar is also among...
Dollar Back Under Pressure, Yen Jumps on Falling Yields
Dollar is back under pressure following weakness in US stocks and yields overnight. But it remains largely in range, except versus Yen. Indeed, Yen buying seems to be picking up momentum again, in tandem with steep decline in Nikkei in Asian session. But risk aversion is having little impact...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell, While Fuel Stockpile Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +11.66 mmb to 1315.23 mmb in the week ended July 12. Crude oil inventory declined -3.12 mmb to 455.88 mmb (consensus: -2.69 mmb). Inventories fell in 4 out...
Markets Mixed as Inflation Data Provide No Guidance
The forex markets are generally locked in tight range today. Canadian Dollar is supported by largely expected consumer inflation data. While Loonie is the second strongest for today so far, USD/CAD is stuck in familiar range. The markets are indeed rather mixed, as seen in New Zealand Dollar being...
Dollar Maintains Gain as Focus Turns to CPI from UK, EZ and Canada
Dollar turns into consolidation in Asian session but it's able to maintain most of this week's gain. The greenback's fate remains heavily dependent on whether Fed will cut interest rates later in the month. Strong economic data so far argue against a move. Yet, it seems they're not strong...
Dollar Rebounds on Retail Sales, Sterling Shrugs Solid Job Data
Dollar rebound strongly in early US session, with support from strong retail sales data. Though, upside is somewhat capped by industrial production miss. Canadian Dollar is, instead, the strongest one. On the other hand, Sterling is the weakest one for today despite solid employment data. UK unemployment rate stayed...
RBA’s July Minutes – Cutting Rate to Weaken Aussie and Lower Unemployment Rate
RBA’s minutes for the July meeting revealed that the objective for lowering interest rate in July again was bringing down the unemployment rate and lowering the exchange rate. Unlike the June minutes, the central bank had not hinted more rate cuts would come in the near-term. Yet, we do...
UK Employment, German ZEW and US Retail Sales Watched
New Zealand Dollar strengthens broadly today after CPI picked up in Q2. On the other hand, Australian Dollar trades slightly softer after RBA minutes affirmed easing bias. Euro and Dollar strengthen mildly in Asian session. But both will face tests from economic data, including US retail sales and German...
Dollar Shrugs Solid Manufacturing Data, Sterling Leads Euro Lower
Commodity currencies remain the strongest ones for today with help from mild risk appetite. Dollar is trying to recover on stronger than expected manufacturing data, but no follow through buying is seen yet. The greenback will need more positive data release to offset recent selling pressure. On the other...