RBA Minutes: Risks to Recovery Skewed to Downside as July Meeting Had No Discussion about Impacts of Melbourne’s Lockdown
The minutes for RBA’s July meeting affirmed that policymakers should leave the current monetary measures steady for a prolonged period of time. Policymakers at the July meeting did not discuss about the surge in new coronavirus cases in Melbourne and potential economic impacts of the renewed lockdown measures. We...
PBOC Left Policy Rate Unchanged for Three Months, Affirming Targeted Monetary Easing Stance
PBOC has left the policy rate, the 1-year loan prime rate, at 3.85% in July. The 5-year loan prime rate also stays at 4.65%. The decision has been widely anticipated, as the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the guidance rate for the LPR, was also kept unchanged at 2.95%...
Sterling Jumps as Euro Bulls Lose Patience on EU Recovery Fund
While Euro rises initially today it's starting to be overwhelmed by Sterling and Swiss Franc entering into US session. Words from officials regarding the talks of EU recovery fund were positive. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the leaders showed "clear will to find a solution" and...
Euro Surges Again on Recovery Fund Progress, Yen Down on Poor Exports
Euro's rally continues today as, despite some jitters, it appears that EU would agree on a compromised deal of recovery fund. It's reported that after marathon negotiations, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden are satisfied with EUR 390B fund being made available as grants with the rest coming as low-interest...
Euro’s Rally to be Tested by Outcome of EU Summit on Recovery Fund
Euro ended last week as the strongest one, as pushed up by hope of an agreement over EU's post-pandemic recovery fund. The strength was particularly apparent against Swiss Franc and Sterling. Yet, up till the time of writing, there seems to be no consensus reached at the EU summit...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Weakened against Major Currencies as Market Focused on Global Recovery
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 14, NET SHORT for USD Index futures added +100 to 5 039 contracts. Speculative long positions slipped -13 contracts and short positions gained +87 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures soared +7...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on Crude Oil Futures Gained Modestly as Price Consolidated at 7-Month High
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 14, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +4 434 contracts to 539 751 for the week. Speculative long positions rise +5 715 contracts while shorts added +1 281 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Euro Surges as Traders Await EU Decision on Recovery Fund
Euro and Swiss Franc rise broadly today but upside is so far limited. Traders are still cautiously awaiting EU leaders's decision on the EUR 750B recovery fund. On the other hand, Sterling suffers notable selling for today, thanks to selling in cross against Euro. Canadian Dollar is following as...
Dollar Mixed in Subdued Trading, With Prospect of Recovery Before Close
The forex markets are generally stuck inside yesterday's range in subdued trading today. Chinese stocks attempted a recovery at the start of the session, but quickly turned into red again, continuing with Thursday's mini-crash. Other Asian markets are mixed though, with not much reactions to weaker US close overnight....
ECB: Lagarde Reiterated to Use All EUR 1.35 trillion of Emergency Purchases to Lift Inflation
ECB at the July meeting maintained all the monetary policy measures unchanged. President Christine Lagarde acknowledged the encouraging economic recovery in May and June. She also suggested that the rebound will continue into 3Q20, as supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus. Yet, Lagarde also warned of the high uncertainty...
Dollar Firms Up as Chinese Stocks Drag Others Lower, Euro Firm after ECB
The sharp reversal in Chinese stocks is somewhat weighing on global sentiments today. European indices are generally in red while US stocks also open mildly lower. Dollar firms up mildly but upside momentum is unclear for now. Euro is also resilient after ECB stands pat as widely expected and...
China Recorded Strong Recovery in 2Q20 but Domestic Demand Remained Weak. Risks Skewed to Downside in Second Half
GDP expanded +3.2% y/y in 2Q20, beating consensus of +2.4%. From a quarter ago, the expanded jumped+11.5%. Concerning major macroeconomic indicators in June, industrial production (IP) rose +4.8% y/y in June, in line with expectations and accelerating from +4.4% in May. Urban fixed asset investment (FAI) declined -3.1% y/y...
Dollar Trying to Recovery as Asia Turned Risk-Off, ECB Awaited
Dollar is trying to recover today as Asian markets turned into risk-off. Better than expected Q2 GDP data from China is largely ignored. Instead, Chinese stock lead Asia lower on concern of escalating geopolitical tension in South China Sea. Sterling is so the weakest for today as job data...
BOC Pledges to Continue with Easing Until Inflation Returned to +2% Sustainably.
As widely anticipated, BOC maintained both the policy rate and all the asset purchases programs unchanged at the July meeting. While acknowledged positive economic developments since the last meeting, policymakers cautioned that the economy’s recuperation will be slow and pledged to maintain the ultra accommodative monetary policy. They took...
Crude Oil Prices Firm in Sharp Fall in US Inventory and Better Demand Outlook. Upside Limited as OPEC+ to Raise Output
Crude oil prices climbed higher on more upbeat demand outlook and huge decline in US inventory. However, the upside would likely be limited as OPEC+ is prone to taper output cut, by 2M bpr, to 7.7M bpd from August. In the latest energy reports, all three major agencies revised...
Coronavirus Vaccine Hopes Prompt Full Risk-On, Dollar and Swiss Franc Dive
Markets are in strong risk-on mode again on coronavirus vaccine hopes. Moderna group said earlier that the vaccine candidate produced a robust immune system response in a large group of people. Next will be a decisive clinical trial in July. Major indices in Asia and Europe record strong gains,...
Dollar Tumbles as Fed Stimulus Hope Boosts Risk-On Trades
Risk-on trades dominated the US markets overnight, as Fed officials indicated the willingness to keep accommodative measures in place. Yet, sentiments turned mixed in Asian markets. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks are weighed down by US President Donald Trump's decision to end Hong Kong's special status, after China imposed...
Euro Surges in Indecisive Markets, Sterling Stays Weak
Risk sentiments continues to be weak today but selloff in the stock markets is so far limited. Euro rides on the indecisive markets and surges broadly today, with help by strong rally against Sterling. Swiss Franc is following as the second strongest so far. On the other hand, New...
Sentiments Turning on Lockdown Concerns, Sterling Down on Weak GDP Rebound
Sentiments seemed to have a turn as surge of coronavirus cases in the US pushed California back into lockdown. Asian markets are under some selling pressure. But the more indicative development was the sharp -2.13% decline in NASDAQ overnight. It remains to be seen if tech index is finally...
ECB Preview – Sounding Cautiously Optimistic on Economic Recovery
After the big move in June, ECB is likely to keep its powder this month. At this week’s meeting, we expect the central bank to acknowledge the improvement in economic activities, mainly driven by consumption. However, the members will remain cautious, highlighting the high uncertainty and downside risks to...