Dollar Stays Soft as Fed Powell and Clarida Called for Patience, But No Extended Selling
Dollar continues to trade as the weakest one for today and the week. The chorus of Fed's "patience" rhetoric continued overnight with the top two men in Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Richard Clarida. But the marginal impact in the markets seem to be diminishing. Stocks were just...
Forex Markets Turn Mixed as Stocks Rebound Fade, More Fed Speaks Ahead
The forex markets is rather mixed today, partly thanks to fading momentum in global stock rebound. Australian Dollar is so far the strongest one for today. Dollar follows as second strongest, paring some of yesterday's losses. Yen is the third strongest. But no apparent momentum is seen in all...
FOMC Minutes Reveal Dovish Notes Which Were Hidden in December
To us, the message conveyed in the FOMC minutes for the December meeting was somehow different from those at the post-meeting press conference. From the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, we judged that the Fed turned a bit more cautious over the economic and financial market outlooks....
Dollar Weakened Broadly as Fed Seeks Patience, Government Shutdown Continues
Dollar is turning mixed in Asian session today, but it remains the weakest one for the week. The greenback was knocked down by a wave of cautious comments from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC minutes. In short, Fed could be "patient" before making another rate move. And...
BOC Pushed Back Timing for Next Rate Hike, Trimmed GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts for 2019
As we expected, BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in yesterday. Policymakers admitted that the decline in oil price has “material” impact on the economy. Yet, they viewed the impact as transitory. Reflecting the view on economy projections, the central bank downgraded the GDP growth forecast for...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell Less Than Expected, While Fuel Stocks Increased Markedly
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +13.28 mmb to 1255.44 mmb in the week ended January 4. Crude oil inventory fell -1.68 mmb to 439.74 mmb (consensus: -2.8 mmb). Inventories decreased in 3 out of...
Global Markets Surge as US-China Trade Talks Ended Positively
Global stock markets are boosted by optimism over US-China trade negotiation. And commodity currencies ride on positive sentiment to strengthen broadly today. On the other hand, Yen is clearly under broad based pressure as risk aversion receded. It's followed by Dollar and then Swiss Franc. Euro shows little reaction...
Optimism on US-China Trade Talks Lift Sentiments, Canadian Dollar Strong ahead of BoC
Commodity currencies are trading broadly higher today as risk appetite is lifted by optimism over US-China trade negotiations in Beijing. Canadian Dollar is additionally supported by rally in oil price, with WTI breaking 50 handle. On the other hand, Yen is trading as the weakest one, followed by Swiss...
Dollar Trying to Recover Further as 10-Year Yield Back Above 2.7
Canadian and US Dollar are the strongest ones in a rather quiet day. WTI crude oil stays firm above 49 but there is no buying to push it through 50 handle yet. But that's enough to keep the Loonie buoyed ahead of BoC rate decision tomorrow. Dollar is supported...
FX 2019 – Persistent Brexit Uncertainty Suggests GBP to Stay Volatile
Brexit uncertainty continues to be the key determinant of sterling’s movement in the coming quarters. Market consensus signals that GBPUSD would rally as much as 4% in 6 months and about 6% in 2019. The forecasts are based on the assumption of a smooth Brexit. We are, however, skeptical...
Dollar Higher after Defending Support, Canadian Even Stronger
Dollar trades generally higher in Asian session today, rebound from near term support levels against Euro and Swiss Franc. The greenback is also seen losing some downside momentum against Sterling and Australian Dollar. Recovery in US treasury yields help and there is also some optimism on the result of...
Euro Shrugs Off Deteriorating Investor Confidence, Rises Together With Swiss Franc
Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest major currencies in a rather quiet day today. Mild recovery in German bund yield is giving the common currency a little lift. But the main drive in the forex market is Dollar's weakness. The greenback is trading as the worst performing one....
BOC Preview – No Change in Rates, Dovish Stance Accompanied by Modest Forecast Downgrades
We expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the upcoming meeting this week. Besides releasing the statement and Monetary Policy Report, the central bank would also update the economic forecasts and host a press conference. The focus of the meeting would be possible downward revisions...
Dollar Broadly Lower on Cautious Fed Powell, US Government Shutdown Continues
Riding on the strong rally in the US on Friday, Asian opened the week generally higher. While major Asian indices maintain gains, there is no follow through buying seen. There seems to be enough risks to keep investors' hands tied, including the result of the vice ministerial level US-China...
FX 2019 – JPY to Shine In Risk-Off Environment
We are not convinced that the "flash crash" of USDJPY last Thursday was driven by Apple.Inc's lowering of guidance, especially on China. The rally in Japanese yen during the time did not just appear in USDJPY, but also other JPY-crosses, such as AUD and TRY. There are factors underlying...
Sentiments Saved as Fed Powell Turned Cautious, China Stepped Up Supporting Measures
There were big roller coaster rides in the financial markets last week. Apple's sales outlook downgrade heightened the concerns over serious slowdown in the Chinese economy. There was the "Currency Flash Crash" which sent through all key technical resistance levels while Australian Dollar tumbled to multi-year low. The partial...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained Marginally, In Contrast with Hopes of Decline
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks gained +14.62 mmb to 1242.16 mmb in the week ended December 28. Crude oil inventory rose +0.01 mmb to 441.42 mmb (consensus: -3.09 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out of 5...
Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Lift Sentiments, Dollar Rises With Hesitation
Global stock markets are staging a strong rebound today as China announced to cut bank reserve requirement to help the private sector and small companies. There is also a sense of optimism as China and US finally confirmed that trade talks will resume in Beijing early next week. US...
Asian Markets Stabilized as China Pledges Countercyclical Measures, Yen Continues to Pare Gains
Despite the deep selloff in US stocks overnight, Asian markets are rather calm. Sentiments are somewhat lifted as China pledged to provide more stimulus, in particular to private and small companies. At the time of writing, Yen is trading as the weakest one for today, continuing to pare back...
Dollar Weighed Down by Dovish Fed Comments, Canadian Lifted by Oil Rebound
Dollar received no support from better than expected ADP employment data. Instead, it's weighed down by dovish comments from a Fed official. The greenback is trading as the second weakest for today in early US session. It's just slightly better than Sterling, which continues to be pressured by Brexit...