St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told Fox Business network, that supply chain disruption is expected to extend through 2022. “if inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control,” he added.
But he said, “we’ve done a lot to move the policy in a more hawkish direction.” And, “if we had to, we could end the taper somewhat sooner than June”.
He penciled in two rate hikes in 2022.
In a speech, Fed Chair Vice Clarida said the US is “a ways away from considering raising interest rates”. However, if outlook for inflation and unemployment realized over time, the “three necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022”.
Clarida also said his individual projections for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation and the policy rate path were quite close the the September median projections. Real GDP would return to its prepandemic trend growth trajectory by Q4 this year, representing “one of the most rapid such recoveries in 50 years.” The 4.2 “employment gap” relative to the previous cycle peak will be eliminated by the end of 2022.
Realized PCE inflation so far this year was “much more than a ‘moderate’ overshoot” of the 2% target. But ” I would not consider a repeat performance next year a policy success”. Also, risks to inflation outlook are “to the upside”.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 18.3 in November, up from 16.9, slightly below expectation of 18.6. That also the first rise since July. However, current situation index dropped from 26.3 to 23.5, lowest since June. Expectations, on the other hand, rose from 8.0 to 13.3.
Sentix said, the economic slowdown is “coming to an end”. Economic expectations suggested that the latest declines were just a “mid-cycle slowdown”. “This thesis seems to be con-firmed by the November data. The threat of an economic turnaround is thus off the table.”
In an interview with El País, ECB chief economic Philip Lane said “we don’t think the recovery process is over”, and “growth will be pretty strong in 2022”. Tourist season will be “better next year” and bottlenecks “ultimately will be resolved.” Also, other factors include savings accumulated during the pandemic, the Next Generation EU fund, and the high vaccination rates.
The headaches about bottlenecks and higher energy prices are “not going to wipe out the underlying momentum of the recovery”. He added, “it is not only about getting back to where we were before the pandemic – it’s also about catching up to the growth that we should have had in 2020 and 2021. So there is still a lot of momentum in the system.”
“Inflation is unexpectedly high at the moment, but we do think it is going to fall next year,” he said. “we did talk about ‘inflation, inflation, inflation’, but this period of inflation is very unusual and temporary, and not a sign of a chronic situation. The situation we are in now is very different from the 1970s and 1980s.”
Bitcoin jumps above 65k handle today and rebound from 57762 finally picks up momentum after some setback. We’re slightly favoring the case that it’s ready to resume larger up trend to through 66982 record high. In that case, next target will be 161.8% projection of 29261 to 52922 from 39559 at 77842. However, break of 61613 support will delay the bullish case and extend the corrective pattern from 66982 with another falling leg.
A the same time, Ethereum also rises to new record high today as up trend extends. It’s so far channeling well with steady upside momentum. Next target should be 100% projection of 1715.62 to 4025.10 from 2647.30 at 4956.78, which is close to 5k handle. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 4327.15 support holds, in case of retreat.
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in in TV interview over the weekend that current high inflation will be “transitory but not short-lived”.
I think transitory, to economists, means sort of not permanent,” he said. “I think to a lot of people, transitory means it’s going to be over quickly. … I don’t know exactly what the right word is, but it’s probably something like, ‘transitory but not short-lived.'”
Macklem pointed to the latest economic projections, which indicated that inflation would rise further from current 18-year high of 4.4% to 5%, then gradually drop back to 2% by the end of next year. And that’s what he meant by “transitory but not short-lived”.
In the Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s October 27-28 meeting, it’s noted that because of low inflation, it’s important to persistently continue with extremely accommodative monetary policy even when pent-up demand increases.” Also, BoJ should “persistently continue with the current monetary easing” so that “a rise in corporate profits leads to wage increases and the virtuous cycle from income to spending intensifies.”
To “alleviate the effects of deterioration in the terms of trade”, it’s necessary to improve economic activity and raise inflation expectations so that “firms can smoothly pass on the rise in raw material prices to domestic selling prices.” It’s important to “improve the output gap” so that “the pass-through of price rises will be promoted..
Yen’s depreciation reflected “differences in inflation rates and monetary policy stances among economies.” It’s important to consider the impact of rise in international commodity prices and Yen’s depreciation. But, it is necessary to keep in mind that their effects on each economic entity are uneven depending on industry and size.
US non-farm payroll employment grew 531k in October, better than expectation of 425k. Prior month’s figure was also revised sharply higher from 194k to 312k. Thus far this year, monthly job growth averaged 582k. Total non-farm employment was still -4.2m, or -2.8% from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
Unemployment rate dropped from 4.8% to 4.6%, below expectation of 4.7%. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, matched expectations.
Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in September, versus expectation of 0.2% mom. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.5% for non-food products, while it rose for food, drinks and tobacco by 0.7% and for automotive fuels by 1.1%.
EU retail sales dropped -0.2% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Germany (-2.5%), Finland (-1.9%) and the Netherlands (-1.2%). The highest increases were observed in Estonia (+7.1%), Slovakia (+2.9%) and Luxembourg (+2.3%).
US non-farm payroll employment is again a major focus. Markets are expecting 425k job growth in October. Unemployment rate is expected to tick down by 0.1% to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.4% mom.
Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing employment rose from 50.2 to 52.0. But ISM services employment dropped from 53.0 to 51.6. ADP private jobs grew 571k, rose slightly from prior month’s 523k. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims continued to trend down, notably, from 344k to 285k.
All in all, today’s NFP will likely be a solid one, affirming Fed’s tapering plan. The main question ahead is whether wage growth would continue in a strong trend, the pushes up inflation, and force Fed for an earlier hike. Strong wage growth could push Dollar index out of the near term range.
Dollar index is now sitting in range below 94.56 short term top. The support from 55 day EMA is a bullish sign. Yet, it will have to break through key long term fibonacci resistance at 94.46 (38.2% retracement of 102.99 to 89.20) decisively to confirm medium term bullishness. In the case, we’d probably seen upside acceleration ahead to 61.8% retracement at 97.72. However, break of 93.27 support will suggest rejection by 94.46, and turn near term outlook bearish for deeper pull back.
As seen in RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy, 2021 year-average GDP growth forecasts was downgraded from 4.75% to 4.25%. 2022 GDP year-average GDP growth forecast was left unchanged at 5%. 2023 year-average growth forecast was upgraded from 2.75% to 3%.
Headline CPI inflation forecasts were raised across the horizon, with 2021 year-end increased from 2.5% to 3.25%, 2022 year-end increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, 2023 year-end increased from 2.25% to 2.5%. Trimmed mean inflation forecasts were also raised, with 2021 year-end increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, 2022 year-end from 1.75% to 2.25%, 2023 year-end from 2.25% to 2.5%.
2021 year-end unemployment rate forecast was lowered from 5% to 4.75%. 2022 year-end and 2023 year-end unemployment rate forecast was left unchanged at 4.25% and 4% respectively.
Australia AiG Performance of Services rose 1.9 pts to 47.6 in October, marking a third month in contraction. Sales rose 13.8 to 55.2. Employment rose 4.8 to 56.8. New orders dropped -1.0 to 38.8. supplier deliveries dropped -7.5 to 39.5. Finished stocks dropped -13.7 to 39.8. Capacity utilization dropped -1.7 to 74.5. Input prices rose 9.1 to 73.6. Selling prices rose 7.8 to 61.7. Average wages rose 9.1 to 68.3.
Ai Group Chief Executive, Innes Willox, said: “The Australian services sector reported mixed fortunes in October… Across the services sector, sales and employment were higher in October while new orders were discouragingly low. A more robust recovery was inhibited by lingering activity restrictions, barriers to interstate movement and the same disruptions to the supply of inputs that are being felt in other parts of the economy… Services companies reported further strong rises in input prices and wages with selling prices also rising although not by enough to prevent additional pressure on margins.”
US initial jobless claims dropped -14k to 269k in the week ending October 30, better than expectation of 277k. That’s the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -15k to 285k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.
Continuing claims dropped -134k to 2105k in the week ending October 23, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -156k to 2357k, lowest since March 21, 2020.
BoE kept Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% by 7-2 vote today. Known hawks Dave Rasmden and Michael Saunders voted for a hike to 0.25%. The MPC also voted by 6-3 to continue with government bond purchase with GBP 875B. Catherine Mann, Dave Rasmden and Michael Saunders voted to cut bond purchases by GBP 20B.
In the forward guidance, BoE said if incoming data, particularly on the labor market, are inline withe central projections in the Monetary Policy Report, it will be “necessary over coming months to increase Bank Rate in order to return CPI inflation sustainably to the 2% target.”
Eurozone PPI rose 2.7% mom, 16.0 yoy in September, above expectation of 1.9% mom, 15.2% yoy. For the month, Industrial producer prices, increased by 7.7% in the energy sector, by 1.0% for intermediate goods, by 0.5% for capital goods, by 0.4% for durable consumer goods and by 0.3% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.6%.
EU PPI rose 2.7% mom, 16.2% yoy. The industrial producer prices increased in all Member States, with the highest monthly increases being registered in Ireland (+23.2%), Denmark (+8.4%) and Greece (+5.8%).
UK PMI Construction rose to 54.6 in October, up from 52.6, slightly above expectation of 54.0. Construction recovery accelerated from September’s eight-month low. House building regained its place as the best-performing category. But severe shortages of staff and materials continued.
Tim Moore, Director at IHS Markit said:
“UK construction companies achieved a faster expansion of output volumes in October, despite headwinds from severe supply constraints and escalating costs…. “However, the volatile price and supply environment added to business uncertainty and continued to impede contract negotiations… There were widespread reports that shortages of materials and staff had disrupted work on site, while rising fuel and energy prices added to pressure on costs.
“Nonetheless, the worst phase of the supply crunch may have passed, as the number of construction firms citing supplier delays fell to 54% in October, down from 63% in September. Similarly, reports of rising purchasing costs continued to recede from the record highs seen this summer.”
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 54.6 in October, down from September’s 56.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.2, down from September’s 56.2. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI composite rose to 2-month high at 62.5. Spain dropped to 6-month low at 56.2. France dropped to 6-month low at 54.7. Italy dropped to 6-month low at 54.2. Germany dropped to 8-month low at 52.0.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:
“Eurozone growth has slowed sharply at the start of the fourth quarter, with manufacturing hamstrung by supply constraints and services losing momentum as the rebound from lockdowns fades.
“Despite the slowdown, the rate of expansion remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of 0.5%, but there’s a worrying lack of clarity on the direction of travel in coming months.
“With supply shortages getting worse rather than better in October, manufacturing growth is likely to remain subdued for some time to come. That would leave the economy reliant on the service sector to drive growth, and there are already signs that rising virus case numbers are dampening activity in many service sector businesses, notably – but by no means exclusively – in Germany.
“Ongoing supply shortages meanwhile suggest that high price pressures will persist into next year, but as yet there are no signs of persistent strong wage growth, which would be the bigger concern for the longer-term inflation outlook.”
Today’s BoE meeting is, as new BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill described, “live” and “finely balanced”. There is a thin majority of economists expecting no change. But market pricing suggests that a hike is not really a surprise. But in either case, the new economic projections, as well as voting would more likely be the things that move markets.
Here are some previews:
Sterling is generally soft ahead of BoE’ rate decision. GBP/CHF broke through 1.2467 support this week and resumed the whole decline from 1.3070. For now the structure of the fall suggests that it’s corrective in nature. Hence, even in case of deeper decline, we’d expect strong support from 1.2259 to contain downside and bring rebound.
Nevertheless, while break of 1.2541 minor resistance will bring recovery, break of 1.2759 resistance is needed to signal a near term bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at best.
BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said his met with new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida today, and discussed Japan, global economies and financial markets .
Kuroda said he explained BoJ’s monetary policy to Kishida, and reiterated the aim to achieve 2% inflation target. When asked about Fed’s tapering, he explained that BoJ is in different situation from western central banks.
Also, Kuroda said that yield curve control will continue even after the pandemic is contained.
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Fed Harker: No rate hike before tapering is complete
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday “I don’t expect that the federal funds rate will rise before the tapering is complete.” But he added, “we are monitoring inflation very closely and are prepared to take action, should circumstances warrant it.”
Harker expected the economy to grow by around 5.5% this year and 4% next, provided that there is no further wave of COVID-19 infections. Then growth was slow to 2-3% in 2023.