China PMI services rose to 53.1, composite rose to 53.0

    China Caixin PMI Services rose from 52.1 to 53.1 in December, above expectation of 51.9. PMI Composite rose from 51.2 to 53.0.

    Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the economy recovered in December with improvements in demand and supply of manufacturing and services. Inflationary pressure eased. But the job market was still under pressure and businesses were less optimistic, raising questions about the stability of the economic recovery. The repeated Covid-19 flare-ups and sluggish overseas demand were challenges to stability.”

    Full release here.

    US oil inventories dropped -6.9m barrels, OPEC cuts 2020 demand forecasts

      US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by -6.9m barrels in the week ending September 6, larger that expectation of -2.7m barrels. At 416.1m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.

      Separately, OPEC lowered 2020 oil demand forecasts due to economic slowdown. OPEC expected oil demand worldwide would expand by 1.08 million barrels per day, 60,000 bpd less than previously estimated. It also noted that next year’s increase in oil demand would be outpaced by “strong” growth in supply. At the same time, it lower global growth forecasts in 2020 to 3.1%, down from 3.2%.

      WTI crude oil dips mildly in early US session in responses to the news. Overall, it’s staying in range of 50.43/60.93. Recent corrective price actions suggest that range trading is set to continue.

      BoJ Kuroda and Maeda: Medium- and long-term inflation expectations improving

        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke at a branch manager meeting today. He expressed the an upbeat view on inflation. Kuroda noted improving output gap as well as heightening medium- to long-term inflation expectations. Thus, He expected “inflation accelerate as a trend and head toward 2 percent.” Also, “Japan’s economy is expected to continue expanding moderately”. Nonetheless, Kuroda maintained that the ultra loose monetary policy needs to be maintained “until needed to stably and sustainably achieve” its target.

        Separately, BOJ Executive Director Eiji Maeda told the parliament that “medium- and long-term inflation expectations are recently emerging from weaknesses. Also “wages and inflation are rising moderately.” Maeda also said that “Japan’s economy is making steady progress toward achieving the BOJ’s 2 percent inflation target”.

        Trump: China trade deal in four weeks, or maybe less, maybe more

          While there seems to be progress made in US-China trade negotiations, they’ve yet reached a concluding stage. No Trump-Xi summit was announced at the meeting in the Oval Office with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Trump said: “We’re getting very close to making a deal. That doesn’t mean a deal is made, because it’s not, but we’re certainly getting a lot closer.”

          At the time same, he repeated his vague languages regarding the timing of a deal. “And I would think with, oh, within the next four weeks or maybe less, maybe more, whatever it takes, something very monumental could be announced.

          Trump added that “some of the toughest things have been agreed to”, and “we’ve agreed to far more than we have left to agree to”. “We have to make sure there’s enforcement. I think we’ll get that done. We’ve discussed it at length,” he added..

          It’s equally vague on the Chinese side. President Xi Jinping told Trump, through Liu, that “I hope the two sides’ trade teams can continue working in the spirit of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit to resolve each other’s concerns, and finish negotiations on the text of the China-U.S. trade agreement soon.” Yet, there was no indication on how “soon” is being soon.

          UK Johnson’s internal market bill draws criticism from EU, Scotland and Wales

            Sterling’s selloff continues today after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government published the so called internal market bill, which negates some key aspects of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote in quick response. “Very concerned about announcements from the British government on its intentions to breach the withdrawal Agreement,” she said. “This would break international law and undermines trust. Pacta sunt servanda = the foundation of prosperous future relations.”

            Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon also criticized, “the internal market bill that the UK government will publish today is a full frontal assault on devolution…. , this is a bill that, by the government’s own admission, breaks international law. This UK gov is the most reckless (& to make it worse, incompetently so) and unprincipled in my lifetime.

            The Welsh counsel general and minister for European transition, Jeremy Miles, also said bluntly. “Let me be clear – the UK government plans to sacrifice the future of the union by stealing powers from devolved administrations,” he said. “This bill is an attack on democracy.”

            Canada united against Trump administration’s disparaging ad hominem statements

              Canada House of Commons displayed rare political unity an passed a unanimous motion standing by the government on retaliation against US steel tariffs, and reject personal attack on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

              The motion is introduced by NDP’s Tracey Ramsey. The House “strongly opposes the illegitimate tariffs imposed by the United States government against Canadian steel and aluminum works”. And it “stands united in solidarity with the Government of Canada in its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs”. And it “rejects disparaging ad hominem statements by the US administration which do a disservice to bilateral relations and will fail to resolve this trade dispute”.

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              Italy Salvini vows “we will not backtrack” as German-Italian spread stays above 300

                Italian Deputy Prime Minister, League leader Matteo Salvini insisted today that “we will not backtrack, we will not backtrack” referring to the 2019 budget deficit target. He blamed the volatility in the markets on speculators that are taking advantages. Salvini said “If one had evil thoughts, he would think there are people betting on the spread because they don’t want Italy to grow and create jobs”. And, “speculators acting like (George) Soros are betting on Italy’s collapse to buy at discount prices the healthy companies, and there are many of them, that have remained in this country.”

                Salvini also warned that credit agencies have to be fair on Italy. He said “I hope no one has prejudice toward this government, or strange intentions.” Moody’s is going to review Italy’s Baa2 rating, with negative outlook, by the end of October. S&P will also review the BBB with stable outlook rating on October 26.

                At the time of writing, Italian 10 year yield is up 0.1838 at 3.59. German 10 year bund yield is down -0.044 at 0.533. Spread is larger than the alarming 300 level.

                Into US session: Euro recovering post ECB losses

                  Entering into US session, Euro receives a wave of buying in the current 4H. It’s probably already past the first post-ECB selling climax.

                  Still, upside momentum is not too convincing as seen in EUR Action Bias table.

                  We’ve mentioned here out hesitation on selling EUR/USD right after ECB as D action bias didn’t turn downside red. And it happened that D action bias is still staying in neutral green.

                  Though, the overall outlook stays bearish in EUR/USD and it’s just a matter of time for downside breakout. Hence, we’ll stick with a safer strategy to sell EUR/USD at 1.1700, slightly above 4 hour 55 EMA, with stop above 1.1851 resistance.

                  Australia expects resource and energy export earnings to make successive records this year and next

                    Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in a new quarterly report that resources and energy exports earnings are expected deliver two successive record years in 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, before falling slightly in 2023-24 to a third highest ever figure.

                    Resources and energy export earnings are estimated to be at AUD 405B in 2021-22, AUD 419B in 2022-23, and then notably lower at AUD 338B in 2023-24. The growth was mainly driven by higher prices as volume would remain below 2019-20 high throughout the forecast period.

                    Full report here.

                    Swiss KOF dropped to 63.5, all indicator groups pushing the barometer downward

                      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 63.5 in April, down from 91.7, above expectation of 58.0. Nevertheless, that’s still a historical decline, sharper than that in 2009 financial crisis.

                      KOF said: “Currently, nearly all indicator groups are pushing the barometer sharply downward. The decline is led by the indicators for the manufacturing industry and other services. However, the indicators for the accommodation and food service activities, foreign demand, construction, consumption and for financial and insurance service providers are also heavily in the red.

                      Also released, real retail sales dropped -5.6% yoy in March, below expectation of -3.6% yoy.

                      Fed Brainard: Appropriate soon to move to a slower pace

                        Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said yesterday, “I think it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases, but I think what’s really important to emphasize is… we have additional work to do.”

                        “It’s really going to be an exercise on watching the data carefully and trying to assess how much restraint there is and how much additional restraint is going to be necessary, and sustained for how long, and those are the kinds of judgments that lie ahead for us,” she said.

                        “It makes sense to move to a more deliberate and a more data dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there’s restraint that will bring inflation down over time,” she said.

                        “As we go forward…risks are going to be two sided if we get into more restrictive or further into restrictive territory,” she said, “so we’ll be balancing those considerations.”

                        Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.9%, core at 1.0% in November

                          Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.9% yoy in November, down from 2.2% yoy in October. Nevertheless, it’s still notable improvement from 1.5% yoy in November 2017. Forex CPI was finalized at 1.0% yoy.

                          European Union inflation was finalized at 2.0% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy. That compared to 1.8% yoy back in November 2017. Among EU member states, inflation was highest in Romania, Hungary and Estonia at 3.2%. Lowest inflation was recorded in Denmark at 0.7%.

                          Full release here.

                          SNB: Economic and financial conditions for the banking sector deteriorated markedly

                            SNB rate decision will be a focus in the markets today. It’s widely expected to keep expansionary monetary policy unchanged. Sight deposit rate should be held at -0.75%. It will also reiterate that “negative interest and interventions are necessary to reduce the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments and thus counteract the upward pressure on the currency.”

                            Ahead of the policy decision, SNB also released the Financial Stability Report today. it’s noted that “economic and financial conditions for the Swiss banking sector deteriorated markedly during the last few months of the reporting period:. The coronavirus pandemic “triggered a significant correction on financial markets and a sharp drop in global economic activity”. Economic and financial outlook “has worsened considerably” and is “subject to unusually high uncertainty”.

                            Full report here.

                            Fed Powell: Nearly all FOMC members expect further tightening this year

                              Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that it’s appropriate to continue tightening. But the Committee would like to assess additional information, before making meeting-by-meeting decisions.

                              In the prepared remarks for the Semiannual testimony to Congress, Powell said, “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.”

                              “But at last week’s meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” he added.

                              In determining future actions, Fed will take into account, “account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments”.

                              “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks,” He said.

                              Full remarks of Fed Powell here.

                              EU Tusk and Juncker in China for talk on trade, investment and climate change

                                European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will meet with Chines Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing today for discussions on some practical topics. Ahead of the meeting European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said the meeting will focus on “trade and investment, on the commitment to combating climate change and investing in clean energy and on foreign and security issues, including the situation on the Korean peninsula”. And, the two sides will also talk on the joint commitment to the Iran nuclear deal.

                                Chinese Ambassador to the EU Zhang Ming wrote in an article in the official People’s Daily, urging to deepen cooperation to address global challenges. In particular, he said both sides should “send out a positive message to safeguard multilateralism, liberalize and facilitate trade and investment.” Zhang added that “Both of them recognize the necessity to firmly resist unilateralism and trade protectionism, guard the rule-based multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core, push economic globalization in the direction of becoming more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial to all, reform multilateral trading system with the times, and perfect global economic governance system.

                                US 10-year yield plunges to 7-month low on worries of sharper slowdown

                                  Following weaker-than-expected private job data and services PMI, US 10-year yield dropped to its lowest level in seven months overnight. Despite these signs of a potential cooling in the economy, which could prompt the Fed to ease up on tightening measures, major stock indexes closed mixed, suggesting that investors may be more concerned about a sharper slowdown on the horizon.

                                  Technically, 10-year yield is approaching a critical support level at 55 week EMA (now at 3.237). A rebound around the EMA, followed by a break of 3.61 resistance, would initially signal a short-term bottoming. More importantly, this would argue that price fluctuations from 4.333 are merely a medium-term corrective pattern.

                                  However, firm break of the 55 week EMA could indicate that 10-year yield is already correcting the whole uptrend that began at 0.398 (2020 low). In this scenario, a deeper decline through the 3% handle to 38.2% retracement of 0.398 to 4.333 at 2.829 could occur before finding sufficient support for a sustainable bounce.

                                  US ADP jobs dropped -123k as pandemic impact intensifies

                                    US ADP employment dropped -123k in December, much worse than expectation of 75k growth. By company size, large businesses cut -147k jobs. Medium business added 37k jobs while small businesses cut -13k. By sector, goods-producing companies cut -18k jobs while service-providing companies cut -105k jobs.

                                    “As the impact of the pandemic on the labor market intensifies, December posted the first decline since April 2020,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The job losses were primarily concentrated in retail and leisure and hospitality.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    EUR/USD ready for range breakout? Some ECB previews

                                      ECB policy decision and press conference are the major focuses of the day. The central bank is widely expected to announce the end of net asset purchases after this month. That would set the stage for a rate hike “some after after” in July.

                                      Markets are expecting a 25bps rate hike in July, followed by a 50bps move in September. That would bring interest rate comfortably back into positive territory, finally after eight years of negative rate policy. President Lagarde will affirm the latter view, but she’d keep the options open on the pace of tightening.

                                      Suggested readings on ECB:

                                      EUR/USD’s reaction to ECB is definitely worth a watch today. It should first be noted that EUR/USD had just bounced off above 1.0339 (2017 low) in May. An upside breakout from the near term range today will have 1.0805 support turned resistance and 55 day EMA taken out firmly. That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.0348. In this case, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2348, EUR/USD should rise further to channel resistance (now at 1.1159), which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.0348 at 1.1112.

                                      ECB Lane: It’s crystal clear we’re not engaged in yield curve control

                                        ECB chief economist Philip Lane told Spanish newspaper ExpansiĂłn in an interview, “at this stage, an excessive tightening in yields would be inconsistent with fighting the pandemic shock to the inflation path. That’s what we said, and that’s what we will be continuing to keep an eye on day by day.

                                        However, “at the same time, it is crystal clear that we are not engaged in yield curve control, in the sense that we want to keep a particular yield constant,” he added. “With the purchase programme we are trying to move the curve in a certain direction and with enough force to support inflation dynamics”.

                                        Full interview here.

                                        Australia NAB business condition rose to 20 in Q2, but confidence dropped to 5

                                          Australia NAB quarterly business confidence dropped from 15 to 5 in Q2. Current business conditions rose from 11 to 20. Next 3 months business conditions was unchanged at 26. next 12 months business conditions dropped from 34 to 29. Capex plan for next 12 months dropped from 33 to 31.

                                          Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, “Conditions strengthened in Q2 as the disruptions related to the virus receded. Trading, profitability, and employment were all higher with conditions approaching the high levels seen in early 2021.”

                                          “Confidence eased in Q2, down to around long-run average levels,” said Oster. “That likely reflects the waning of some of the pandemic-recovery optimism, as well as the mounting challenges of rising inflation and also rising interest rates that businesses are confronting.”

                                          Full release here.