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Natural gas: ⬇️ Sell

• Natural gas broke support area
• Likely to fall to support level 3.0000

Natural gas recently broke the support area between the support trendline of the weekly up-channel from last August, support level 3.4 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the daily uptrend from August.

The breakout of this support area accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from the end of March.

Natural gas can be expected to fall to the next round support level 3.0000 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (C)).

The dollar index remains under increased pressure and trading near new three-year low after it opened with gap-lower at the start of the week.

Turbulent situation on escalation of US-China trade war was fueled by President Trump’s latest criticism of Fed Chair Powel and signals that Powel could be replaced as the central bank does not comply with Trump’s demands to further cut interest rates that would boost economic growth.

Trump’s action produced a massive reaction of the markets, as investors further lost confidence in the US economy, on concerns that potential Powell’s replacement by the President would greatly threat the central bank’s independence.

The dollar remains in a steep downtrend since early February this year, with strong acceleration lower seen in April after Trump announced its latest tariff plan.

Loss of psychological 100 level and likely monthly close below for the first time in three years, contributes to bearish technical picture on all larger timeframes, contributing to negative outlook on deteriorating fundamentals.

Break below the floor of broader range (since 2023) and loss of important Fibo support at 99.13 (61.8% of 89.50/114.72) signals bearish continuation and unmask targets at 97.70 (today’s low / March 2022 higher base) and 95.45 (Fibo 76.4% retracement).

Immediate bias to remain firmly with bears while today’s gap is unfilled, while broken supports at 99.13 and 100 reverted to solid barriers and should cap extended upticks.

Res: 98.77; 99.13; 100.00; 100.45
Sup: 97.70; 95.96; 95.45; 94.60

EURUSD surged through 1.15 barrier and hit new multi-year high as effect from worsening fundamentals was boosted by a holiday-thinned market on Easter Monday.

The latest escalation of trade war further deflated dollar and provided more support to the single currency, which became replacement to the US currency in growing migration into safety.

Bulls eye round-figure barrier at 1.1600, November 2021 peak at 1.1616 and Fibo 76.4% of 1.2349/0.9535 downtrend at 1.1685, as technical picture remains bullish and deteriorating fundamentals continue to fuel advance.

The EURUSD is in strong bullish acceleration for the third consecutive month and on track for the biggest monthly gain in April since September 2010.

Res: 1.1573; 1.1600; 1.1616; 1.1685.
Sup: 1.1473; 1.1412; 1.1390; 1.1275.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee strongly defended the central bank’s independence in remarks to CNBC, warning that undermining the Fed’s autonomy could have serious long-term economic consequences.

He emphasized that maintaining credibility around the Fed’s 2% inflation target depends on its ability to act free from political pressure.

“When there is interference over the long run,” Goolsbee said, “it’s going to mean higher inflation, worse growth, and higher unemployment, because there’s just going to be "a little less willingness to step up and do the hard things when the moment is tough".

Goolsbee, who joined the Fed over two years ago, stressed that the economic consensus is overwhelmingly in favor of central bank independence. He pointed to global examples where the lack of such independence has led to significantly worse outcomes—higher inflation, weaker growth, and elevated unemployment.

His remarks come amid heightened concerns over potential political pressure from the White House, as reports circulate about President Trump exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

After four consecutive weeks of decline, the dollar index started the new Monday by continuing its move into the territory of three-year lows. Once again, a worrying sign is that this dollar weakness is not translating into buying in stocks or bonds — their indices are also losing ground.

From a technical standpoint, the dollar index has broken through the 161.8% level of the initial impulse from the highs at the start of the year to a significant pause in early March. The DXY received little to no support around the 99–100 area, which had triggered reversals over the past two years.

The dollar index is now trading around the same levels it held during the second half of Trump’s previous presidential term, from 2018 to the first half of 2020. On the daily timeframes, the RSI is showing the deepest oversold conditions since July 2020, and on the weekly chart — since 2017.

Although this setup creates favourable conditions for a rebound, previous instances have led not to a full reversal but to consolidation and further decline. A confident break below the 200-week moving average underlines the strength of the current sell-off.

In the history of free-floating forex markets — roughly the past half-century — the current situation on the long-term charts could be only the third similar case, following the episodes of the mid-1980s and early 2000s. In those cases, peaks in the dollar were followed by two and six years of decline, shaving off 45% and 40% respectively. In both instances, the dollar went on to update its historical lows, while a major side effect was global recession and a serious downturn in financial markets.

Focusing solely on the implications for the US currency, a repeat of the 1980s and 2000s patterns suggests a potential move below 70, although this could take years. A more immediate and realistic target for bears is a pullback towards the 90 area on the index, where reversals took shape in 2018 and 2020. A gradual decline, akin to the 2002–2008 period, appears more likely than a near-vertical collapse reminiscent of the 1980s. Along the way, prolonged consolidations and even substantial rebounds are possible.

The Japanese yen came flying out of the gates on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.00, down 0.79%. Earlier the yen strengthened to 140.47, its strongest level since Sep. 2024.

US dollar retreats as Trump pushes against Powell

The US dollar has posted losses against the major currencies on Monday, including against the yen. Investors gave the US dollar a thumbs down after President Trump's top economic advisor said that Trump was considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Trump has been increasingly critical of Powell for not lowering interest rates and said last week that "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough". Trump fired his latest salvo after Powell said that US tariffs would raise inflation and that the Fed could find itself having to balance keeping a lid on inflation and supporting economic growth. Powell added that tariffs are "likely to move us further away from our goals".

Powell has insisted that he isn't going anywhere and will serve until the end of his term in May 2026. Can Trump legally fire Powell? That is a complicated legal question, but the markets aren't waiting for an answer and the US dollar has retreated.

Trump's attacks on Powell threaten the independence of the US central bank and is eroding confidence in the US dollar. The dollar is also under pressure from Trump's tariff policy, which has dampened the confidence of foreign investors.

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY has pushed below support at 141.16. Below, there is support at 140.14.
• There is resistance at 142.62 and 143.64

Market Overview

The crypto market has gained 2% over the past 24 hours, reaching $2.75 trillion. This marks a surge to the highest levels in three and a half weeks and an attempt to break upwards from a prolonged consolidation. At this stage, attention is focused on top-tier coins — BTC, ETH, XRP, and BNB — all gaining over 2%. However, among slightly smaller-cap coins, performance remains quite varied.

Bitcoin jumped to $87,500 on Monday, testing the late March highs. The leading cryptocurrency managed to bounce off the 50-day moving average, around which it had been hovering for the past week and a half. A solid close above the $88,000 area would signal a break in the downtrend and a return to levels above the 200-day moving average.

A confident move higher from current levels would be a key signal for the entire market, once again positioning BTC as the flagship set to lead the way.

News Background

Analysts have also pointed to a slowdown in the growth of stablecoin supply in recent weeks. This is another sign of declining liquidity in digital assets.

Barry Silbert, founder of the venture-holding Digital Currency Group (DCG), stated that 99.9% of existing cryptocurrencies are pointless and worthless. According to him, simply holding Bitcoin instead of investing in crypto projects would have made him significantly more money.

Google searches for Bitcoin in March hit their highest levels since the start of the year, rising by 26% over the month. Ethereum showed a similar trend, indicating a revival of interest in digital assets from retail investors, as noted by The Block.

According to Matrixport, ETH’s market share has dropped by nearly 50% since the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the US in July 2024. At the same time, Bitcoin remains stable despite its limited liquidity.

Markets are back to business and accelerated in unchanged direction after short Easter break.

Gold jumped around 1.8% in Asian/early European trading, hitting series of new record highs and pressuring psychological $3400 level.

Fresh safe haven demand was sparked on growing uncertainty over escalation of US-China trade war and China’s warning to countries against striking economic deal with the US.

Clouded US economic outlook and fresh tensions over President Trump’s attack against Fed Chair Powell, added to migration from US dollar and further inflated gold price.

Fresh gains came just ticks ahead of $3400 level, where headwinds are expected as daily studies are strongly overbought, while hourly indicators form initial reversal signal (momentum and stochastic bearish divergence).

However, due to strong and unchanged supportive factors (fundamentals) dips are likely to be shallow, with support at $3360 zone and session low ($3329) marking solid supports which should contain and guard more significant $3300 support.

Final break of $3400 to expose targets at $3428 and $3459 (Fibo projections).

The latest rallies signal that bulls already eye target at $3500, against my recent forecast that gold would hit $3500 by the end of the year.

The metal’s price holds in steep and accelerating uptrend for the fourth consecutive month, adding to signals of possible much stronger than expected gains in the near future.

Res: 3400; 3428; 3459; 3500.
Sup: 3369; 3357; 3329; 3300.

In our previous analysis of Bitcoin’s price (14 April), we:

→ constructed a long-term ascending channel (marked with blue lines);

→ highlighted resistance level R, suggesting that the bulls were seizing the initiative in an attempt to pave the way for a continuation of the long-term trend on the BTC/USD chart.

As we can see, Bitcoin is now trading at its highest level in nearly three weeks. Moreover, the bulls are close to reclaiming a key high from early April. Market sentiment is being buoyed, in part, by comments from Michael Saylor, who stated that MicroStrategy is prepared to continue accumulating Bitcoin. Following a recent purchase of more than 3,000 coins, the company now holds over 530,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart Today

Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the R resistance line, having risen on a strong bullish candle — a clear indication of demand outweighing supply. This price action reinforces the relevance of the long-term ascending channel, making the argument stronger that the bearish breakout attempt (marked with an arrow) in early April was a false move.

It’s also worth noting that the psychological level of $80K is acting as strong support — since late February, BTC has dipped below this level several times but has failed to establish itself there. A bullish attempt to challenge the $90K level before the end of the month cannot be ruled out.

Will Bitcoin continue on a bullish path? Much will depend on the fundamental backdrop — particularly factors influencing the US dollar’s performance. Notably, the US Dollar Index futures are trading at their lowest level since March 2022.

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