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The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh three-year peak on Monday, holding steady at 1.1518 amid growing unease over US economic policy.

Key Drivers Behind the EUR/USD Rally

Investors returning from the Easter break were met with renewed concerns over the US White House’s stance on the Federal Reserve and its Chair, Jerome Powell. Questions surrounding the Fed’s independence have unsettled markets, particularly after Donald Trump ramped up his criticism of Powell.

While the US President has previously threatened to dismiss Powell, legal and institutional barriers make such a move difficult. Nevertheless, Trump’s rhetoric has grown increasingly aggressive, as he pushes for swifter interest rate cuts and greater monetary policy flexibility. The Fed, however, remains caught between taming inflation and navigating a robust labour market—a delicate balancing act that has only heightened market anxiety.

These tensions compound existing worries over escalating trade conflicts and broader uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies. Over the weekend, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added to the unease, warning that US tariffs could dampen economic activity by summer.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

• The pair previously consolidated around 1.1333 before breaking upward.
• After finding support at 1.1390, it formed a bullish wave towards 1.1530.
• A downward correction towards 1.1390 is now anticipated. A break below this level could extend losses to 1.1245.
• The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart Outlook

• The market briefly consolidated near 1.1390 before rallying to 1.1530.
• A pullback towards 1.1390 is now in focus, with a breakdown potentially opening the door to 1.1245.
• The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, hovering above 80 and poised for a decline towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD rally reflects mounting scepticism towards US policy stability, with technical indicators now hinting at a potential retracement. Traders will be watching closely for further Fed commentary and political developments that could sway the pair’s trajectory.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.59; (P) 188.92; (R1) 189.33; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 190.06 resistance holds. Below 184.35 will target 180.00 low. Nevertheless, break of 190.06 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.70; (P) 161.95; (R1) 162.21; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 164.16 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, and then 166.67. However, decisive break of 158.27 support will bring deeper decline back to 154.77 support. Overall, sideway consolidation pattern from 154.40 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8558; (P) 0.8570; (R1) 0.8583; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral as consolidation from 0.8737 is still extending. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8518 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8737 will resume the larger rally from 0.8221. However, sustained break of 0.8518 will bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8432).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7803; (P) 1.7845; (R1) 1.7912; More...

EUR/AUD is still staying in consolidations below 1.8554 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of the pull back should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, firm break of 1.8554 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress, and in reacceleration phase as seen in W MACD. Next target is 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7417 resistance turned support holds even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9290; (P) 0.9308; (R1) 0.9320; More....

EUR/CHF is still extending consolidation from 0.9218 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9408 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 0.9204 low will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9600) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9928 to 0.9204 from 0.9660 at 0.8936.

Gold price started a fresh surge above the $3,250 resistance level. WTI Crude oil prices climbed higher above $60.00 and might extend gains.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a fresh surge and traded to a new record high at $3,384 against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,322 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices started a recovery wave above the $60.00 and $61.50 resistance levels.
• There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $63.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,200 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,250 and $3,280 resistance levels.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,350. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,380 resistance zone. A new record high was formed near $3,384 and the price is now consolidating gains.

On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,362 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,283 swing low to the $3,384 high.

The next major support sits at $3,322. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,322. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,283 swing low to the $3,384 high.

A downside break below the trend line support might send the price toward the $3,282 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,242 support zone.

Immediate resistance is near the $3,384 level. The next major resistance is near the $3,388 level. An upside break above the $3,388 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,500. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,520 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a recovery wave from $58.40 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $60.00 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The bulls pushed the price above the $61.50 and $62.00 resistance levels. The recent high was formed at $64.20 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $59.87 swing low to the $64.18 high.

There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $63.00. The RSI is now below the 50 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the $62.0 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $59.87 swing low to the $64.18 high.

The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $61.50 zone, below which the price could test the $59.90 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $58.40. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $56.20 support zone.

If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $64.20. The next major resistance is near the $65.00 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $68.50 level.

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In today’s Asian session, 21 April, the US dollar tumbled in line with intraday weakness seen in the US stock indices futures after the markets reopened from the Good Friday holiday break.

The US Federal Reserve’s independence has come under renewed threat from US President Trump again, when over the weekend it was reported that the US White House Administration has continued to evaluate the available options to seek a removal of Fed Chair Powell before his tenure ends in 2026.

The Japanese yen strengthened to a level last seen in September last year, where the USD/JPY shed -1% coupled with the EUR/USD rallying by 1.1% to hold at a 3-year high. In addition, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-min futures declined by -0.9% each, respectively at this time of this writing.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 snapped its prior two sessions of gains with an intraday loss of 1.1% while the Hong Kong stock market remained shut for the Easter Monday holiday.

These observations suggest that market participants on the aggregate are questioning the US White House administration's current policies that may erode the confidence of holding US assets, and such a lack of confidence may amplify if the long-held independence of the Fed in terms of conducting monetary policy is removed.

Overall, the threat to the Fed’s independence had a greater market impact than the ECB’s dovish tone following its rate cut decision last Thursday, 17 April."

The yellow metal has continued to thrive in such uncertain times, where Gold (XAU/USD) added on to its gains with an intraday rally of 1.6% that saw another fresh all-time intraday high of $3,385 in today’s Asian session.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asian mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Potential deceleration of USD/JPY after minor bounce

Fig 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 21 Apr 2025 (Source: Trading View)

The USD/JPY has continued to plunge after its bearish breakdown from its “Pennant” configuration (considered as a minor consolidation within its ongoing medium-term downtrend phase) on last Wednesday, 16 April.

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has hit an extreme oversold reading of 8.2, its lowest level in the past four months, which suggests that USD/JPY may see an imminent minor corrective bounce before another leg of impulsive down move resurfaces.

Potential minor corrective bounce intermediate resistance to watch will be at 141.74 (former minor swing low of 17 April), and if the 142.70 short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed to the upside, the USD/JPY may face renewed potential downside pressure to expose the next intermediate supports at 140.30/140.00 and 139.00/138.70.

On the flip side, a clearance above 142.70 invalidates the bearish tone to kickstart a potential mean reversion rebound sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 144.10 and 145.10.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3832; (P) 1.3850; (R1) 1.3869; More...

USD/CAD's fall resumed by breaking through 1.3827 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.3773 will extend the decline from 1.4791 to 138.2% projection at 1.3528. On the upside, above 1.3868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high) and 55 W EMA (now at 1.3982) indicates that a medium term top is already in place at 1.4791. Fall from there would either be a correction to rise from 1.2005, or trend reversal. In either case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6365; (P) 0.6379; (R1) 0.6391; More...

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 0.5913 should target 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548, even still as a corrective move. On the downside, below 0.6356 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.