Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6559; (P) 1.6616; (R1) 1.6649; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.6800. Strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 1.6800 will resume the rally from 1.5963. However, sustained break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283 instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support (2024 low) despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9373; (P) 0.9397; (R1) 0.9419; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for consolidations above 0.9359 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9516 resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 0.9204 might have completed at 0.9517 already. Firm break of 0.9336 support will solidify this bearish case and target a retest on 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 0.9204 has completed as a corrective move after failing to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Firm break of 0.9204/9 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4245; (P) 1.4374; (R1) 1.4446; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for more consolidations below 1.4791 short term top. Downside should be contained by 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4267), to bring rebound. Larger up trend is expected to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.4260 will indicate that deeper correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs) confirms long term uptrend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6197; (P) 0.6230; (R1) 0.6288; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation continues above 0.6087. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6329 resistance holds. Break of 0.6087 will resume larger decline from 0.6941. However, firm break of 0.6329 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6511) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0305; (P) 1.0346; (R1) 1.0421; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.0176 is extending. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0531 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0176 from 1.0531 at 0.9890.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is back on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0531 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2410; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2524; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as this point. Corrective rebound from 1.2099 could extend further with another rise. But strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609 to limit upside. Below 1.2248 will bring retest of 1.2099 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.3433.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9015; (P) 0.9082; (R1) 0.9117; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9200 is still extending. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8956/64 support holds. Firm break of 0.9200/9223 will resume the whole rally from 0.8374 and carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.84; (P) 154.68; (R1) 155.18; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 158.86 short term top resumed by breaking through 153.70 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Strong support could be seen from there to bring rebound. But further fall will remain in favor as long as 155.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Sustained break of 151.49 will raise the chance of bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Japanese Yen gained significant ground in the Asian session, supported by stronger-than-expected nominal wage growth, which bolstered the likelihood of further BoJ rate hikes. Additionally, continued rise in real wages for the second consecutive month, despite being largely driven by seasonal bonuses, adds to the argument that wage pressures could help sustain inflation near the 2% target.

Supporting this outlook, BoJ monetary affairs director Kazuhiro Masaki told parliament that the central bank is prepared to continue adjusting monetary support and raising rates if underlying inflation progresses toward its 2% target. These remarks reaffirm the expectation that Japan’s interest rate normalization will proceed gradually but steadily this year.

While Yen leads gains in the forex market, overall sentiment is mixed, with trade war concerns temporarily fading into the background. Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest performer this week, followed by Yen and Swiss Franc. Dollar lags behind as the weakest, joined by Euro and New Zealand Dollar. Sterling and Australian Dollar are treading a middle ground .

With trade-related uncertainty easing, attention is now shifting back toward key economic events. US ISM Services PMI is due later today. Tomorrow, BoE is expected to announce a 25bps rate cut, but the MPC voting split and economic projections will be crucial in setting future rate expectations. To close the week, US Non-Farm Payrolls and Canada’s employment report will be in focus on Friday.

Technically, Gold's record run continues with strong momentum and remains on track to 3000 psychological level, which is close to 38.2% projection of 1810.26 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3074.07. Attention is on whether Gold would lose momentum on overbought condition as it approaches this level. But in any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 2772.04 support holds.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.10%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.69%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.36%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.14%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0191 at 1.295. Overnight, DOW rose 0.30%. S&P 500 rose 0.72%. NASDAQ rose 1.35%. 10-year yield fell -0.030 to 4.513.

Fed’s Jefferson and Daly signal no urgency for rate cuts

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reaffirmed the cautious approach to policy easing, stating that while a "gradual reduction" in monetary policy restraint towards neutral remains the most likely scenario, there is no urgency to change the current stance.

"I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance," he said in a speech overnght.

He emphasized that policy decisions will continue to be guided by incoming data and the evolving economic outlook, noting that monetary policy is "not on a preset course."

Jefferson outlined a "range of scenarios" for future policy moves. If economic activity remains robust and inflation fails to sustainably decline toward 2% target, Fed could maintain its restrictive stance for longer. Conversely, if the labor market weakens unexpectedly or inflation cools faster than expected, the central bank may need to ease policy at a quicker pace.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed similar sentiments, describing the US economy as "in a very good place." She emphasized that the central bank is in a strong position to "wait and see" before making any policy moves.

Japan’s nominal wage growth surges 4.8% yoy in Dec, real wages rise for second month

Japan’s labor market showed strong wage growth in December, with labor cash earnings surging 4.8% yoy, significantly above expectations of 3.8% yoy and accelerating from 3.9% yoy in the prior month. This marks the 36th consecutive month of annual wage increases.

Regular pay, which includes base salaries, rose 2.7% yoy, while special cash earnings—mainly reflecting winter bonuses—jumped 6.8% yoy, providing an additional boost to workers' disposable income.

Real wages, which adjust for inflation, climbed 0.6% yoy, marking the second straight month of positive growth. This improvement comes despite a notable acceleration in consumer inflation, with the price index used to calculate real wages—excluding rent but including fresh food—rising 4.2% yoy, up from 3.4% yoy in November and reaching the highest level since January 2023.

China’s Caixin PMI services PMI drops to 51.0

China’s Caixin Services PMI slipped to 51.0 in January, down from 52.2 and below expectations of 52.3. PMI Composite also edged lower from 51.4 to 51.1, marking a four-month low, as both manufacturing and services sectors struggled to gain momentum.

According to Caixin Insight Group, while supply and demand conditions showed improvement, services growth lagged behind, pointing to weaker consumer activity.

Wang Zhe, Senior Economist added, "Employment in both sectors fell significantly, and overall price levels remained subdued, particularly factory-gate prices in manufacturing."

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rises to 5.1%

New Zealand’s labor market softened further in Q4, with unemployment rate climbing from 4.8% to 5.1%, in line with expectations and marking the highest level since 2016, excluding the brief spike following the 2020 Covid lockdown.

Employment fell by -0.1% in the quarter, slightly better than the expected -0.2% decline, but still reflecting ongoing weakness in job creation. Meanwhile, wage growth continued to moderate, with the labor cost index rising 0.6% qoq, bringing the annual rate down to 3.3% from 3.8%.

The latest data supports the case for further monetary easing by RBNZ, which remains committed to swiftly bringing the OCR down from the current 4.25% toward neutral level. A 50bps rate cut is still widely anticipated at the upcoming policy meeting this month.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.84; (P) 154.68; (R1) 155.18; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 158.86 short term top resumed by breaking through 153.70 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Strong support could be seen from there to bring rebound. But further fall will remain in favor as long as 155.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Sustained break of 151.49 will raise the chance of bearish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Short Term Elliott Wave View in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests that cycle from Jan 13, 2025 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse / diagonal. Up from Jan 13, 2025 low, wave (1) ended at 109,356. Wave (2) pullback unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 100,087 and wave ((b)) ended at 105,424. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 97,750 which completed wave W in higher degree. Wave X ended at 106,447.

The crypto-currency has resumed lower in wave Y. Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 99,038 and wave ((b)) ended at 100,473. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 91,555 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree. The instrument has turned higher in wave (3) but it needs to break above wave (1) to rule out any double correction. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 102,569. Expect pullback in wave ((ii)) to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 91,555 for further upside.

BTCUSD 90 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0Iq9daJvKQ