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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

ActionForex

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2208; (P) 1.2246 (R1) 1.2297; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point and more consolidations could be seen. As long as 1.2088 resistance turned support stays intact, near term outlook remains bullish. Current medium term rally would target 1.2494/2516 key resistance zone next. At this point, we'd expect strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2088 will argue that EUR/USD has topped earlier than expected. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494. Break of 1.1553 support will confirm completion of the rise. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Dollar Remains in Green; Bank of Canada Decision the Session’s Highlight

Here are the latest developments in global markets:

FOREX: The US currency remained in the green versus a basket of currencies, while it is of note it managed to rebound after touching its lowest since December 2014 earlier on Wednesday. The dollar index was last up by 0.35% at 90.70.

STOCKS: Most European bourses were in the red around midday on the back of updates on earnings that, for the most part, disappointed investors. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was marginally down, with the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 trading lower by 0.1%. UK's FTSE 100, the German DAX and the French CAC 40 all traded lower by 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Multinational events and publishing company Informa (down 9.05%) was the worst performing FTSE stock after making an offer to acquire mid-cap events organizer UBM, a FTSE 250 constituent that saw its stock price jump, last being up by 10.7%. Luxury fashion house Burberry (down 7.4%) and publishing & education company Pearson (down 5.3%) were other notable losers as their trading updates came in short of what the investment community expected. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were all up by 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Quarterly earnings reports by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs will be gathering attention during the US session; both companies will release their results before Wall Street's opening bell.

COMMODITIES: Ahead of a report on US crude stocks, WTI and Brent crude were down by 0.4% and 0.6%, trading at $63.46 and $68.76 per barrel. Gold traded lower by 0.1%, at $1,336.54 an ounce. The rise in the dollar probably took something away from the dollar-denominated precious metal's appeal.

Day ahead: Bank of Canada in spotlight; eurozone inflation a non-mover

The eurozone's final inflation figures for the month of December went public at 1000 GMT. Year-on-year and month-on-month, headline inflation came in as expected at 1.4% and 0.4% respectively, with energy prices rising the most on an annual basis. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food items and which is often cited by the ECB in its policymaking, increased by 1.1% on a yearly basis, the same pace as in the two months that preceded. The measure of core inflation that excludes alcohol and tobacco, in addition to taking out of the calculations energy and unprocessed food, rose by 0.9% y/y, again at the same rate as in November and October; some analysts view this reading as a better gauge of price pressures. The ECB's target for annual inflation is below but close to 2%.

Unsurprisingly, given that the release pertained to the final inflation numbers, the market's reaction was subdued. Indicatively, euro/dollar moved within less than a 15-pips range during the first minutes of the data release. The pair was last 0.4% down at 1.2206. Despite the decline, the pair still held most of its recently-recorded gains. It should be said that earlier on Wednesday the pair touched its highest since December 2014 of 1.2323.

Regarding the day ahead, the Bank of Canada's rate decision due at 1500 GMT is eagerly expected. The bank's Monetary Policy Report will accompany the interest rate decision, while later – at 1615 GMT – BoC Governor Stephen Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will be attending a press conference. Markets widely expect the central bank to hike rates by 25 bps, pushing up its benchmark rate to a post crisis high of 1.25%. Given that markets have for the most part priced in a rate hike, the loonie stands much more to lose in case the BoC backs down from delivering one, than it stands to gain from an interest rate increase. Dollar/loonie was last not much changed on the day at 1.2447.

Out of the US, December industrial production numbers scheduled for release at 1415 GMT will be gathering attention. Month-on-month, industrial output is forecast to exhibit positive growth for the fourth straight month, expanding by 0.4%, twice as fast as in November. Manufacturing output figures, which are a subset of industrial output ones, will also be watched by market participants. The reading on December's capacity utilization will also be made public at the same time, while the National Association of Home Builders is scheduled to release its Housing Market Index at 1500 GMT. Lastly, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which attempts to give a picture of economic trends and challenges the US economy faces, is due at 1900 GMT.

Oil traders will be paying attention to the API weekly report due at 2130 GMT that includes information on US crude stocks.

In terms of Fed policymakers making appearances today, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will be participating in a discussion on current economic conditions and monetary policy at 2000 GMT; neither of them is an FOMC voting member in 2018. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, which holds voting rights within the FOMC this year, will be giving a lecture on monetary policy communication at 2130 GMT.

Any developments on the German political landscape, after the latest setback in efforts to revive the grand coalition between Chancellor Merkel's conservative bloc and the Social Democrats, have the potential to lead to market reaction.

CAC Yawns As Eurozone Inflation Inches Lower

The CAC index is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, the index is at 5510.80, down 0.05% on the day. On the release front, there were no surprises from Eurozone Final CPI, which dropped from 1.5% to 1.4%, matching the forecast. Eurozone Final Core CPI came in at 0.9%, as expected.

It's been an impressive jump out of the gates for European stock markets in 2018. The CAC index is up 3.5% in January, and there's room for the rally to continue. The French economy continues to perform well, boosted by steady growth and lower unemployment. On Monday, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said he expected 2017 growth around 2 percent, and that 2018 growth should exceed the government forecast of 1.7%. There have been positive developments on the political front in Germany, as Angela Merkel's conservatives and the Social Democrats have signed a coalition blueprint, raising hopes that coalition talks will bear fruit and the country will have a government in the next few months.

With the eurozone economy on the rebound and inflation levels higher, speculation is rising that the ECB could wind up its stimulus later in the year, and perhaps even raise interest rates. The ECB tapered stimulus from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion per month, but ex

Is the market getting a bit ahead of itself? On Tuesday, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a newspaper interview that he did not expect interest rates to rise until mid-2019, even if QE ends in late 2018. If Weidmann reiterates this stance on Thursday, this could weigh on the CAC.

GBPUSD Further Bullish Above 1.3800 Level

The British pound remains increasingly bullish against the U.S dollar, with the pair making a strong recovery back towards the 1.3800 level during the European trading session. Earlier the GBPUSD found daily buying interest around the 1.3755 level, with the pair well-supported by intraday dip buying demand. Going forward, sterling traders now await a key-note speech from Bank of England voting member Michael Saunders, and the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

GBPUSD buyers are firmly in control of the pair while price-action trades above the 1.3800 level. Further upside towards the 1.3855 and 1.3890 levels appears possible.

Should price-action on the GBPUSD pair fail to gain traction above the 1.3800 level, sellers will likely push price back towards the 1.3755 and 1.3721 support levels.

USDJPY Still Struggling Below 110.80 Level

The U.S dollar remains under selling pressure against the Japanese yen currency, as buyers again struggle to make upside traction above the 110.80 level. Price-action on the USDJPY pair currently trades around the 110.70 region, after selling-off sharply on Tuesday, alongside U.S equity markets. From a technical perspective the pair remains bearish in medium-term, with price-action putting in a series of lower daily price-lows, and lower daily price-highs.

Intraday USDJPY sellers control the pair while price trades below the 110.80 level, further losses towards the 110.33 and 109.80 are still expected.

Should the USDJPY pair start to move above the 110.80 technical level, upside towards the 111.22 and 111.45 levels remains possible.

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD – Psychological 0.80 Barrier Is Under Strong Pressure But No Clear Break So Far

The Aussie dollar hit new high at 0.7998 on Tuesday (the highest since 21 Sep) but failed crack psychological 0.8000 barrier.

Subsequent pullback signals hesitation, as Tuesday’s action ended in Doji candle.

Daily RSI and slow stochastic are overbought and suggest bulls may hold in extended consolidation before eventually breaking through 0.8000 pivot.

Break higher is expected to trigger stops and accelerate towards next targets at 0.8035 and 0.8065.

Close above cracked 0.7977 barrier (Fibo 76.4% of 0.8124/0.7499) is needed for initial bullish signal, with sustained break above 0.8000 pivot, to confirm bullish continuation.

Res: 0.8000, 0.8035, 0.8065, 0.8102
Sup: 0.7953, 0.7936, 0.7925, 0.7892

CRUDE OIL Pull Back Off Highs

Crude oil is continues to head higher. Hourly resistance is given at 64.89 (15/01/2018 high). Strong support is given at 55.82 (07/12/2017 low). Expected to keep increasing as demand seems very strong.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

SILVER Consolidating After Fall

Silver is trying to bounce after sharp correction lower. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 17.43 (15/01/2018 high). A key resistance stands at 18.21 (08/09/2017 high). An hourly support lies at 16.80 (reaction low).

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

GOLD Bullish Momentum Is Still Lively

Gold continues to push higher. Hourly support is given at 1306 (04/01/2018 low). Resistance is located at 1345 (15/01/2018 high) and the commodity is now targeting strong resistance at 1357 (08/09/2017 high).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

BITCOIN Stabilizing After Collapse

Bitcoin has now stabilized after collapsing. Hourly support area located around 10775 (22/12/2017 low). In the short-term, the technical structure suggests a continued bearish momentum. Expected to show further decline.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $40'000 in 2018.