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• Russell 2000’s week-to-date performance as of 9 November is the weakest among the US benchmark stock indices.
• The bearish reaction that wiped out almost 50% of last week’s gains has occurred right at a former key range support and 50-day moving average.
• Watch the 1,787 key short-term resistance.

The bearish force has started to unleash its paws again against the small-cap Russell 2000 Index where its current week-to-date loss is at -4.17% as of 10 November 2023, the worst underperformer among the US benchmark stock indices; S&P 500 (-0.25%), Nasdaq 100 (+0.59), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.50%) over the same period.

Its latest key technical elements have turned bearish which indicates the start of another potential multi-week bearish impulsive sequence.

Bearish reaction from the former key range support

Fig 1: US Russ 2000 major trend as of 10 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The current price actions of the US Russ 2000 Index (a proxy for the Russell 2000 futures) have almost wiped out 50% of last week’s gains induced by the dovish Fed Chair Powell’s ex-post FOMC press conference and the lacklustre US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI data for October.

Interestingly, the current bout of bearish reaction has coincided with the former key “Symmetrical Triangle” range support from the June 2022 swing low now turns pull-back resistance at around 1,787.

Also, the weekly RSI momentum indicator has started to inch downward below the 50 level which indicates the potential revival of medium-term to major downside momentum.

Oscillating within a medium-term descending channel

Fig 2: US Russ 2000 short-term trend as of 10 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

In the shorter time frame as seen on the 4-hour chart, the Index has continued to oscillate within a descending channel in place since 1 August 2023 where last week’s rally has been rejected right below the upper boundary of the descending channel and its downward sloping 50-day moving average.

All in all, these observations suggest that the odds are skewed towards the continuation of its short to medium-term downtrend phases of the Index rather than the start of a medium-term bullish reversal.

Watch the 1,787 key short-term pivotal resistance and a breakdown below its 1,690 near-term support may accelerate a further potential down move towards the next immediate supports at 1,640 and 1,600 (also the lower boundary of the descending channel & a Fibonacci extension level) in the first step.

On the other hand, a clearance above 1,787 negates the bearish tone for an extension of the corrective countertrend rebound to see the next intermediate resistance coming in at 1,839 (also the key 200-day moving average).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.59; (P) 185.25; (R1) 185.64; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation form 185.94 temporary top is extending. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 182.71 support. On the upside, above 0.8594 will resume the rebound from 178.02 to retest 186.76 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and bring lengthier and deeper consolidations.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.29; (P) 161.55; (R1) 161.72; More....

Despite some loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD, intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside. Current rally should target 163.06 projection level next. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside on first attempt. On the downside, below 160.68 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. On the downside, break of 154.32 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8704; (P) 0.8717; (R1) 0.8741; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. Consolidation from 0.8752 could extend with another falling leg. But in that case, downside should be contained by 0.8614 support to bring rebound. Meanwhile, decisive break of 0.8752 will resume larger rally from 0.8491 towards 0.8874 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) has completed with three down to to 0.8491. Rise from 0.8491 is seen as another leg inside that pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Further rally should be seen to 0.8977 resistance and above. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8614 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6698; (P) 1.6728; (R1) 1.6787; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral, with mixed near term outlook. On the upside, break of 1.6449 will confirm strong rebound from medium term trend line again, and bring further rally to retest 1.7062 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.6449 will bring deeper fall to 1.6319 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 1.7062 is already a medium term top. Fall from there is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). While deeper decline might be seen, strong support should emerge from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to contain downside. On the other hand, break of 1.6843 resistance will revive medium term bullishness that larger up trend is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9618; (P) 0.9634; (R1) 0.9648; More...

EUR/CHF is still extending the consolidation from 0.9651 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 0.9564 minor support holds. Above 0.9651 will resume the rebound from 0.9416 to 0.9691 resistance first. Firm break there will argue that whole decline from 1.0095 has completed at 0.9416, just ahead of 0.9407 support (2022 low). Nevertheless, break of 0.9564 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0095 resistance holds, price actions from 0.9407 are viewed as a three-wave consolidation pattern first. Current rise from 0.9416 might be the third leg. That is, larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) might still resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 will argue that the long term down trend is reversing.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0644; (P) 1.0685; (R1) 1.0709; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral with focus on 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0657). Further rise is in favor as long as this EMA holds. Decisive break of 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763) will extend the rise from 1.0447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will argue that the rebound has completed, and target 1.0515 support, and then 1.0447 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2187; (P) 1.2248; (R1) 1.2283; More

GBP/USD's break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2246) argues that corrective recovery from 1.2036 has completed with three waves up to 1.2426. That came after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.2036/68 support zone. Nevertheless, break of 1.2307 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case, and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a correction to up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Strong rebound from 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075 will argue that it's a sideway pattern only. However, sustained break of 1.2036 will indicate that it's a deeper correction that would target 61.8% at 1.1417 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8992; (P) 0.9017; (R1) 0.9053; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, as it's still bounded in range of 0.8952/9111. On the downside, below 0.8952 will target a test on 0.8886 support first. Break there will resume whole decline from 0.9243 to 0.8815 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.9111 will resume the rebound from 0.8886 instead, and target 0.9243 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected pull back from 0.9243. Yet there was no follow through selling after hitting 0.8886. On the upside, break of 0.9243 resistance will revive the case of medium term bottoming at 0.8851, and turn outlook bullish. However, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8551 to 0.9243 at 0.8815 will argue that larger decline from 1.0146 is ready to resume through 0.8551 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.94; (P) 151.17; (R1) 151.56; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 151.69 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another falling leg could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 148.79 support holds. Firm break of 151.69 high will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.