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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2720; (P) 1.2858; (R1) 1.2934; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3141 resumed by breaking 1.2796 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2718) and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.2994 resistance will argue that the pull back has completed, and bring retest of 1.3141 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.2678 resistance turned support holds, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3895. However, sustained break of 1.2678 will argue that it's at least correcting this rally, with risk of bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8598; (P) 0.8648; (R1) 0.8744; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.8699 will bring stronger rebound towards 0.8818 support turned resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.8551 will resume larger down trend from 1.0146, targeting 0.8317 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8756 (2021 low) indicates break out from the long term range pattern. For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9146 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6664; (P) 0.6742; (R1) 0.6787; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6894 resumed by breaking through 0.6714 and intraday bias is back on the downside. As this decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.6898, downside should be contained by 0.6594 support. On the upside, break of 0.6820 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6894/8 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6720) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3174; (P) 1.3208; (R1) 1.3259; More....

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Break of 1.3091 will resume larger fall and target 61.8% projection of 1.3653 to 1.3115 from 1.3386 at 1.3054. However, firm break of 1.3386 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) only. But even so, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. Meanwhile, break of 1.3386 will be a sign that the correction has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3976.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8549; (P) 0.8574; (R1) 0.8605; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 0.8543 will target a test on 0.8502 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8977. On the upside, above 0.8618 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8700, and possibly further to 0.8717 key support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Firm break of 0.8717 support turned resistance will argue that it has completed with three waves down to 0.8502. Further break of 0.8977 will bring retest of 0.9267 high. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8717, followed by break of 0.8502 will resume the decline towards 0.8201 (2022 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6292; (P) 1.6351; (R1) 1.6422; More...

Sideway trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 1.6231 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.6601 will resume the rebound from 1.5846 and target 1.6785 high next. However, firm break of 1.6231 will bring deeper fall to extend the corrective pattern from 1.6785.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9524; (P) 0.9540; (R1) 0.9559; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays mildly on the downside despite loss of momentum. Sustained break of 100% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9670 from 0.9840 at 0.9515 will extend the fall from 1.0095 towards 0.9407 low. On the upside, above 0.9560 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9876). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9840 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Short term view in GBPUSD suggests the rally to 1.3143 ended wave 1. Pullback in wave 2 is currently in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (i) ended at 1.305 and rally in wave (ii) at 1.3126. Pair then declined in wave (iii) towards 1.2867 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 1.2965. Pair made the last leg lower wave (v) towards 1.2839 to end wave (v). This completed wave ((a)). Rally in wave ((b)) unfolded as an expanded flat structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (a) ended at 1.2904, wave (b) ended at 1.2797, and wave (c) of ((b)) ended at 1.2997. Pair then extends lower in wave ((c)).

It has broken below the previous expanded flat wave (b) low at 1.2797, which suggests the next leg lower has started. Down from wave ((b)), expect wave (i) to complete soon. Pair should then rally in wave (ii) to correct wave (i) before it resumes lower again as far as it stays below 1.2997. Potential target for wave 2 lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)) which comes at 1.256 – 1.269. Near term, as far as pivot at 1.2997 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.

GBPUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4kOTIQLcrE

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 141.00 resistance zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 142.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD reacted to the downside below the 1.1050 support.
• The US GDP surprised with 2.4% growth in Q2 2023 (Prelim).

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar remained well-bid above the 139.50 level against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a decent increase above the 140.00 and 140.20 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained bullish momentum after a sharp 2.4% rise in the US GDP in Q2 2023. There was a move above the 141.00 resistance zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours).

The first major resistance is near the 142.00 zone or the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours). There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 142.50 on the same chart.

Any more gains might send the pair toward the 143.20 level. On the downside, the pair might find bids near the 142.25 level. The next major support is near 140.00, below which USD/JPY could slide toward the 139.50 zone.

Looking at EUR/USD, there was a sharp bearish reaction below 1.1050 after the US GDP report and there is a risk of more losses.

Economic Releases

• German Consumer Price Index for July 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +6.2%, versus +6.4% previous.
• German Consumer Price Index for July 2023 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.3% previous.
• US Personal Income for July 2023 (MoM) - Forecast +0.5%, versus +0.4% previous.

Australia retail sales turnover fell -0.8% mom in June, much worse than expectation of 0% mom. Sales turnover rose 2.3% yoy compared with June 2022.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: "Retail turnover fell sharply in June due to weaker than usual spending on end of financial year sales. This comes as cost-of-living pressures continued to weigh on consumer spending.

"There was extra discounting and promotional activity in May, leading up to mid-year sales events. This delivered a boost in turnover for retailers, but that proved to be temporary as consumers pulled back on spending in June."

Full Australia retail sales release here.