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US initial jobless claims dropped -26k to 239k in the week ending June 24, below expectation of 265k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1.5k to 257.5k, highest since November 13, 2021 when it was 260k.

Continuing claims dropped -19k to 1742k in the week ending June 17. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -13k to 1758k.

Full US jobless claims release here.

EURGBP is consolidating after 0.70% advance in past two days, sparked by renewed ECB and Fed’s hawkishness, but keeps firm tone for renewed attack at pivotal 0.8643/54 barriers (Fibo 38.2% of 0.8875/0.8518 / 10WMA) where bulls faced significant headwinds.

Improving daily studies on rising positive momentum, MA’s (10/20/30) now in bullish setup and 10/20 DMA bull-cross formation, support the action and add to positive fundamentals, after the ECB signaled further rise in interest rates and warned that borrowing cost will remain elevated for extended period.

Bulls need a clear break through cracked 0.8643/54 barriers to confirm initial bullish signal and spark further retracement of 0.8875/0.8518 descend.

Falling 55DMA marks initial target at 0.8682, followed by 0.8696 (50% retracement), with stronger bullish acceleration to focus 0.8740 zone (Fibo 61.8%, reinforced by diverging 100/200DMA’s, which formed a bear-cross.

Caution on repeated failure to clear 0.8643/54 barriers, which would signal that bulls might be running out of steam, but near-term bias expected to remain positive while the price action stays above broken daily Kijun-sen (0.8613).

Res: 0.8654; 0.8682; 0.8696; 0.8740.
Sup: 0.8623; 0.8613; 0.8588; 0.8535.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled a more cautious stance on interest rate hikes, contrary to someof his peers' sentiments. he said, "I don't see as much urgency to move as stated by others, including my Chair," expressing his willingness to assess further signs of economic slowdown before advocating for more aggressive action.

Bostic highlighted the fact that Fed has "only been in restrictive territory for 8-10 months". He is waiting for "more signs that a slowdown is happening in the next several months".

Nevertheless, Bostic left room for adaptability based on incoming data. He remarked, "If inflation moves away from target or seems to significantly stall out, then we'll probably have to do more." However, he also noted that, "We're not seeing either of those right now."

Here's the latest news from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While speaking at a conference in Portugal, Powell expressed optimism about the US economy and decreased the possibility of a recession, stating that the economy has shown resilience and is still growing, albeit at a modest pace. He acknowledged the possibility of a recession but emphasized that it is not the most likely scenario. The Federal Reserve recently paused its series of interest rate hikes after ten consecutive increases. Powell mentioned that the Fed's goal is to slow down the economy and reduce consumer demand to curb inflation, which currently stands at double the Fed's target of 2%. The policy approach seems to work, as economic activity has slowed while consumer spending and hiring remain solid. The labor market has been strong, with robust job growth in May. Despite a slight slowdown in wage increases, Powell sees it as a positive development for the fight against inflation. Overall, he believes that finding a balance without a severe downturn is the most plausible outcome.

US DOLLAR - H4 Timeframe

Here on the 4-hour timeframe of the US Dollar, we see the price has now reached a supply zone; a crucial one because it overlaps the 200-period moving average while the moving averages are arrayed in descending order - from top to bottom. The implication of this is the likelihood of rejection from that zone, which would, in turn, result in a bearish impulse from the Dollar.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target: 102.221
• Invalidation: 103.258

XAUUSD - D1 Timeframe

Just like we’ve discussed in several of my past pieces, the price action on the US Dollar often correlates negatively to that of the XAUUSD commodity because Gold is often used as a crucial safety net to hedge against inflationary forces and economic instability. On that note, since the price action on the US Dollar suggests a weakening USD, we can also begin to expect bullish price action from Gold. However, let’s see what the lower timeframe looks like now.

XAUUSD - H4 Timeframe

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD has reached an area of demand and would be looking to make a quick reversal from this zone in line with the correlation against the US Dollar. There is also trendline support cutting across this demand zone, adding a confluence to the original sentiment. As a result, I believe the price action would favor the bulls.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 1945.73
• Invalidation: 1885.80

CONCLUSION

The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.91; (P) 182.81; (R1) 183.48; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. But further rise is expected as long as 179.90 support holds. Above 183.74 will resume larger up trend to 138.2% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 187.36 next. On the downside, however, break of 179.90 support will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.27; (P) 157.64; (R1) 158.04; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for 100% projection of 139.05 to 151.60 from 146.12 at 158.67. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 163.46 next. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 155.74 minor support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8601; (P) 0.8630; (R1) 0.8665; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside at this point. Rise form 0.8517 short term bottom is in progress. But still, as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds, fall from 0.8977 could still have another leg through 0.8517 before completion. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8717 will turn outlook bullish for 0.8977 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. It's seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201 (2022 low). But strong support should be seen from there to bring reversal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6426; (P) 1.6490; (R1) 1.6599; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside rise at this point. Sustained break of 1.6513 resistance will confirm that whole correction from 1.6785 has completed at 1.5846. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.6785 high next. On the downside, break of 1.6255 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rally resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9772; (P) 0.9797; (R1) 0.9815; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Another fall cannot be ruled out, to retest 0.9670 low. Sustained break there will resume the whole fall from 1.0095. Nevertheless, break of 0.9840 will resume the rebound from 0.9670 to 0.9878 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9918). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 96.4 to 95.3 in June, slightly below expectation of 96.0. Employment Expectations Indicator rose from 104.6 to 105.0. Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 21.6 to 20.4. Industry confidence fell from -5.3 to -7.2. Services confidence fell from 7.1 to 5.7. Retail trade confidence fell from -5.3 to -6.0. Construction confidence fell from -0.3 to -2.0. Consumer confidence improved from -17.4 to -16.1.

EU Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 95.1 to 94.0. Employment Expectation Indicator rose from 103.9 to 104.3. Economic Uncertainty Indicator dropped from 21.2 to 20.1. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI deteriorated in Germany (-1.9), Italy (-1.1), the Netherlands (-1.0) and Spain (-0.9), while it remained virtually unchanged in Poland (-0.1) and improved in France (+0.8).

Full Eurozone ESI release here.