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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2085; (P) 1.2150; (R1) 1.2201; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 1.2292 resistance will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.1932; h: 1.1769; rs: 1.2002). Further rally should then be seen to 1.2666 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2002 will bring deeper fall back to retest 1.1759 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2897).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9397; (P) 0.9423; (R1) 0.9440; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for consolidation above 0.9369 temporary low. Upside should be limited well below 0.9648 resistance to bring another fall. Break of 0.9369 will resume larger fall to 100% projection of 0.9884 to 0.9468 from 0.9648 at 0.9232.

In the bigger picture, break of 0.9471 support turned resistance argues that medium term up trend from 0.8756 has completed with three waves up to 1.0063. Long term sideway pattern might have started another falling leg. Deeper decline would now be in favor as long as 0.9648 resistance holds, to 0.9149 structural support. Sustained break there could pave the way back to 0.8756.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.96; (P) 133.42; (R1) 133.96; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 139.37 is still unfolding. Range trading between 126.35/139.37 will continue for a while. On the downside, break of 130.38 will target 100% projection of 139.37 to 130.38 from 135.57 at 126.58. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound form 130.38 to retest 139.37.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7096; (P) 0.7112; (R1) 0.7139; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise is expected as long as 0.7008 support holds. Above 0.7135 will resume the rise from 0.6680 towards 0.7282 high. However, break of 0.7008 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6868 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2773; (R1) 1.2807; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with today's recovery. On the downside, break of 1.2726 will resume the decline from 1.3222 to towards 1.2516 support. ON the upside, however, above 1.2837 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2984 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8434; (P) 0.8463; (R1) 0.8481; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.8720 is still expected to resume as long as 0.8585 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8338 support will target a retest on 0.8201 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Medium term bearishness is maintained. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4351; (P) 1.4445; (R1) 1.4496; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 1.5396 should target 1.4318 support first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4804 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9633; (P) 0.9679; (R1) 0.9703; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the downside at this point. Firm break of 0.9650 long term projection level will target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9970 from 1.0513 at 0.9334. Meanwhile, rebound from current level, followed by break of 0.9799 resistance should confirm short term bottoming.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650 will target 138.2% projection at 0.9033 next. On the upside, break of 0.9970 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.62; (P) 162.21; (R1) 162.61; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stay s neutral at this point. Consolidation from pattern from 168.67 could extend further. On the upside, above 163.97 will turn bias to the upside, and resume the rebound to 166.31 resistance. Break there will be the first sign of up trend resumption. On the downside, break of 161.08 minor support will target 159.42 support and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

The week starts moody in Asia, as economic data from China and Japan missed estimates early this Monday. Japanese economy grew last than expected in the Q2, although there was an acceleration in both private consumption and government spending, and capital expenditures rose sharply. Also, net exports contributed positively to the GDP, as exports increased while imports fell; the massive depreciation in the Japanese yen during last quarter certainly helped.

In China, retail sales, investment and industrial production, all, unexpectedly fell, and an earlier rate cut from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) could hardly improve the mood in Chinese stocks. Shanghai’s composite is slightly.

Of course, bad data from China also weighs on recession worries for the rest of the world. Crude oil begins the week under selling pressure around the $91 per barrel. US index futures are down, but interestingly, the European futures were better bid in Asia; Asian traders didn’t price in the fact that Rhine, the biggest river in Germany where ships transport coal among other crucial goods is drying to a point that it can no longer be navigated at some parts. The water level at Kaub, which is a key water marker, will fall to 30 centimeters today – and the latter will only deepen the European energy crisis, and perhaps inflation. The EURUSD slips below the 2.50 level.

Too early to call the end of US selloff

In the US, Friday’s session was again a strong one. The S&P500 gained 1.73%, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. From a technical standpoint, last week’s advance in Nasdaq marks the end of the bear market, as the index rallied more than 20% since the June dip.

But, it’s too early to uncork the champagne, and call the end of the market selloff. Last week’s softer-than-expected inflation data gave a glimpse of hope that things could start looking better in the second half of the year. But the Federal Reserve (Fed) members warned immediately that inflation in the US remains at a particularly high level, which needs continuous intervention from the policy perspective until the levels get back toward the policy target.

The Fed minutes, due this week, will certainly confirm that the Fed remains focused on bringing US inflation lower; the latest softness in inflation data will unlikely change the Fed’s roadmap, at least for the next couple of meetings.

For now, activity on Fed funds futures gives almost 50-50 chance for a 50 and a 75bp hike in September meeting. I believe we will still see a 75bp hike in September.

The US dollar is firmer this Monday. Gold struggles finding buyers into the $1800 per ounce level, as Bitcoin tests the $25K resistance to the upside. The US delegation visit to Taiwan this week could revive tensions between the US and China, and help the precious metal amass safe haven flows. But the topside will likely remain limited around the $1835 level, where we have the 100-DMA.