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The ECB’s July Consumer Expectations Survey showed households continue to see inflation remaining above target in the near term, with 12-month expectations steady at 2.6% and three-year expectations edging higher to 2.5% from 2.4%. Five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.1% for an eighth consecutive month, underscoring anchored long-term views.

Notably, uncertainty around one-year inflation stayed at its lowest since January 2022, with the median at 1.6%. This suggests households feel more confident about the inflation outlook, even as near-term expectations remain somewhat elevated.

Growth and labor market expectations turned more downbeat. Economic growth was expected to contract by -1.2% over the next 12 months, compared with -1.0% in June. Unemployment expectations rose to 10.6% from 10.3%. The results highlight continued pessimism about the Eurozone’s economic prospects despite inflation stability.

Full ECB consumer expectations survey results here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1641; (P) 1.1670; (R1) 1.1710; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.1573 support holds. Break of 1.1741 will resume the rally from 1.1390 to retest 1.1829 high. Firm break there will extend larger up trend. However, decisive break of 1.1573 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.1829 with another downleg, and target 1.1390.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.56; (P) 147.03; (R1) 147.41; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 146.20 will resume the fall from 150.90. Also, that would argue that rebound from 139.87 has completed as a corrective move to 150.90. Deeper fall should be seen to 142.667 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 148.76 will bring another rise to retest 150.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3486; (P) 1.3509; (R1) 1.3534; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is mildly in favor as long as 1.3389 support holds. Above 1.3594 will resume the rebound from 1.3140 to retest 1.3787 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.3389 support will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3787 with another fall, and target 1.3140 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3073) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7991; (P) 0.8017; (R1) 0.8040; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.7910 support first. Break there should confirm that corrective rebound from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8170. On the upside, however, break of 0.8073 will turn bias to the upside for 0.8103. Further break there will resume the rebound from 0.7871 through 0.8170 resistance.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6510; (P) 0.6524; (R1) 0.6546; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and corrective pattern from 0.6624 could still extend further. On the upside, firm break of 0.6567 will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.6624 high. However, break of 0.6413 will extend the correction lower towards 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3729; (P) 1.3761; (R1) 1.3782; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3923 will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538. But upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017). Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3720 will argue that the corrective bounce has already completed, and bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9334; (P) 0.9351; (R1) 0.9379; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. The favored case is that corrective rebound from 0.9218 has completed with three waves up to 0.9452. On the downside, below 0.9317 will target 0.9265 support for confirmation. However, break of 0.9403 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9452 and above.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.25; (P) 198.69; (R1) 198.99; More...

GBP/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. While another fall cannot be ruled out, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 195.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 2002.6 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.25; (P) 171.52; (R1) 171.92; More...

EUR/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 170.94 support will bring deeper fall to 169.69, or further to 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97. On the upside, above 172.99 will bring retest of 173.87 short term top.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 170.34) will delay this bullish case.