Sample Category Title

Bitcoin is absorbing most of the cash coming into the digital asset market. Its share in the cryptocurrency market structure increased by 10 percentage points to 65% in the first half of 2025. This is the highest it’s been since January 2021. In contrast the capitalisation of altcoins has fallen by $300 billion since the beginning of this year. Thanks to developed infrastructure, support from the White House and regulation, larger tokens are displacing smaller competitors.

The MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index, which covers the bottom half of the 100 largest digital assets, initially doubled after Donald Trump’s election results in November. However, it then lost all its gains and fell by 50% in 2025. Bitcoin on the other hand, has risen by almost 14% since January and reached a new record high in May. Cryptocurrencies are benefiting from capital inflows into specialised exchange-traded funds and high global risk appetite.

The only competition for Bitcoin comes from stablecoins. The adoption by Congress of legislation regulating their circulation is increasing investor interest in this type of digital asset. In the first half of the year alone, the market capitalisation of stablecoins grew by $47 billion. Not only banks but also large companies such as Amazon are exploring opportunities for their implementation.

Bitcoin is showing little interest in restoring its correlation with US stock indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to update their record highs in June, but Bitcoin is in no hurry to do so. The link between the traditional markets and crypto was broken during the armed conflict in the Middle East. Currently the digital assets leader is cautiously watching the approach of the 9th of July, the expiry date of the White House’s 90-day tariff delay.

The escalation of trade wars will increase the risks of a pullback in US stock indices. According to Bank of America, the bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate. If it bursts, all risky assets will suffer. It is not surprising that Bitcoin is cautious. On the contrary, new records for the S&P 500 will allow bitcoin bulls to aim for a new all-time high.

BoE MPC member Alan Taylor warned today that the UK economy faces mounting risks to a soft landing, citing growing demand weakness and trade disruptions. In a speech, Taylor said his earlier forecast for a gradual disinflation and stable growth path is now at risk of being derailed in 2026.

“My reading of the deteriorating outlook suggested to me that we needed to be on a lower rate path, needing five cuts in 2025 rather than the market-implied quarterly pace of four,” Taylor said, citing recent shocks and global uncertainty that clouded his earlier view.

Taylor, who has consistently pushed for more aggressive easing, has voted for cuts in five of seven MPC meetings since joining last September—including a 50bps move in May followed by 25bps in June.

Portuguese ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno welcomed the return of Eurozone inflation to the 2% target, calling it "very good news." However, he also stressed that the ECB remains focused on assessing incoming data.

Centeno told Bloomberg TV that the ECB is “monitoring all possible numbers” and assessing various aspects of the Eurozone’s 20-member economy. “The current situation doesn’t mean that we need to rush into more interest-rate reductions,” he said. "We need to see data, we need to see the developments."

Finnish ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn warned that the Eurozone faces renewed risks of inflation falling below the 2% target as global uncertainties intensify. While acknowledging that risks to the outlook exist on both sides, Rehn said the downside appears more pressing. “The risk of staying below target is greater in my view, especially as our projections see price growth under target for 18 months,” he noted.

Rehn pointed to a trio of disinflationary forces — a strong Euro, lower energy prices, and rising tariffs — which he argued are weighing on both inflation and growth. “We need to be mindful of the risk of inflation staying persistently below 2%,” he said.

Belgian ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said the central bank may need a “mildly supportive” stance, especially if Eurozone recovery continues to lag. In an interview with Reuters, Wunsch noted “If the recovery is delayed — and it has been delayed a few times — and output is below potential, then being supportive is rational,” he said.

Wunsch highlighted several disinflationary forces at play, including lower energy prices, the strength of Euro, subdued wage growth, and the lack of tariff retaliation. He also flagged cheap Chinese imports as a contributing factor to weakening price pressures. “All these factors combined suggest that the upside risk is limited and the overall risk is to the downside,” he added.

With markets pricing in one final 25 basis point cut later this year, bringing the deposit rate to 1.75%, Wunsch said he was not uncomfortable with that view. “I don’t disagree with market pricing for interest rates,” he noted.

The US dollar is retreating on all fronts, showing a daily decline since last Monday, when the military conflict between Israel and Iran came out of its hot phase and the tax bill in the US returned to the forefront.

Resuming its decline, interrupted by the bombing between Israel and Iran, the dollar index has been updating its more than three-year lows on a daily basis since the second half of last week. With total losses of over 12%, the first half of the year was the worst for the US currency since 1973, i.e. in the entire history of the free forex market.

A more neutral geopolitical background removed the ‘war premium’ from the dollar’s price and brought back the focus on Trump’s pressure on Powell and the discussion of Trump’s bill. This ‘One Big and Beautiful Bill’ promises to create a 7% budget deficit. The situation is not as serious as it was in September 2022 in Britain, but it is moving in the same direction.

However, we still see more influence in the changing mood of market participants, where expectations of a rate cut are growing. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance that there will be at least three cuts by the end of the year, almost double the figure a month ago.

On weekly timeframes, the RSI index has been updating its lows since early 2018, indicating an aggressive decline over the past seven years. This has dashed hopes for a bottoming out and rebound earlier this year.

The technical picture indicates the potential for the dollar to decline by another 7-8% to the 88-90 range on the DXY from the current 96.6. However, this is a rare case where the situation is in the hands of politicians. We turn our attention to representatives of the US Treasury and the Fed with comments on maintaining a strong dollar policy. Strong macroeconomic employment data this week may halt the dollar sell-off, but this is unlikely during a period of economic slowdown.

• GBPUSD loses momentum near three-year high, tests the channel’s upper band.
• Short-term bias remains bullish, but overbought conditions are evident.
• Bullish outlook remains intact above 1.3450.

GBPUSD began July’s trading with sluggish momentum, following five consecutive months of gains that pushed the price to a three-year high of 1.3787 on Monday.

Much of the pair’s ascent is due to the dollar’s weakness, while the Bank of England’s gradual approach to rate cuts has been a positive catalyst too. Speaking on a panel with global peers in Portugal, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reminded investors that interest rates are expected to decline further, while also hinting at a potential slowdown in quantitative tightening, clouding the outlook for the remainder of the year.

In the meantime, the RSI and the stochastic oscillator are issuing a warning about overbought conditions near the 2022 high of 1.3747 and the upper boundary of the bullish channel. The formation of small candlesticks at the top of the uptrend also reflects a degree of hesitation among traders.

If bearish pressure emerges, the pair could retreat towards the former resistance zone at 1.3615, where the 20-day exponential moving average (SMA) is converging. The 50-day EMA may provide additional support near the channel’s lower boundary at 1.3450, while the ascending trendlines at 1.3320 and 1.3235 could be the next levels to watch.

Should a bullish breakout occur above 1.3800, the next resistance may appear near 1.3950, a level derived from the June–August 2021 highs. Further up, the rally could pause around 1.4070 before potentially targeting the 2025 resistance line at 1.4180.

Overall, the recent bullish push in GBPUSD appears to have reached a critical pivot point, increasing the likelihood of a pullback or a period of consolidation. Nevertheless, only a break below the channel at 1.3450 would raise concerns about a potential bearish trend reversal.

Eurozone unemployment rate edged higher to 6.3% in May, missing expectations for an unchanged reading at 6.2%. Eurostat data showed 10.83m people unemployed in the Eurozone, part of a total 13.05m across the EU.

The broader EU jobless rate held steady at 5.9%, but the number of unemployed rose by 54k in the Eurozone and by 48k in the EU compared to April.

Full Eurozone unemployment rate release here.

The euro has appreciated by approximately 15% against the US dollar this year, as confidence in the United States continues to wane. As ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted in an interview at CNBC: “There is a degree of reorientation by global investors towards the euro.”

At the same time, officials at the European Central Bank have expressed concern that the rapid strengthening of the euro could undermine efforts to stabilise inflation at 2%. They warn that a move above $1.20 may pose risks for inflation and the competitiveness of export-oriented firms — an issue raised during the ECB’s ongoing ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal.

Could EUR/USD Reach the $1.20 Level?

From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD is showing bearish signals:

→ If the early April rally (coinciding with Trump’s announcement of new tariffs) is taken as the initial impulse wave A→B, and the May low is interpreted as the end of the B→C corrective move, then, according to Fibonacci Extensions, the pair has now risen to a key resistance zone around 1.1850 (as indicated by the arrow on the chart).

→ In addition, the RSI indicator signals strong overbought conditions, while the price is hovering near the upper boundary of the ascending channel — a level that typically acts as resistance.

Given these factors, we could assume that EUR/USD may be in a vulnerable position, potentially facing a short-term correction — possibly towards the lower boundary of the channel, reinforced by support at the 1.1620 level. However, this does not negate the longer-term bullish outlook for the euro amid prevailing fundamental conditions.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The EUR/USD pair soared to 1.1801 on Wednesday, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains. The US dollar remains under heavy pressure due to expectations of a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy and growing concerns over President Donald Trump’s fiscal strategy.

Fed maintains cautious stance while fiscal worries mount

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank will maintain a wait-and-see approach, but he did not rule out a potential rate cut at the next meeting. Powell emphasised that future decisions would depend on economic data, adding that the Fed could have already cut rates were it not for inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs.

Meanwhile, the US Senate narrowly approved a massive tax and budget package expected to increase the national debt by 3.3 trillion USD. The bill now returns to the House of Representatives for final approval, fuelling further concerns over the US fiscal outlook.

Key data ahead to guide the market

Investors are now awaiting crucial US employment data:

• Wednesday: ADP report on private sector employment
•  Thursday: June labour market statistics

These releases could provide further clarity on the Fed’s next policy steps.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a growth wave to 1.1777, with a consolidation range forming around this level. Today, an upward expansion is expected to 1.1848, followed by a decline to 1.1750, marking the range boundaries. An upward breakout could extend the range to 1.1885, while a downward breakout would open the potential for a decline to 1.1430. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above zero and exiting the histogram zone, suggesting an approaching correction as it nears the zero line.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD continues forming a consolidation range around 1.1777. Today, an expansion upwards to 1.1848 is likely. However, it is essential to note that the growth potential is nearly exhausted, and the market may soon begin a downward trend towards 1.1660, with the potential to extend to 1.1616. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing sharply downward towards 20, indicating the building of bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD maintains its strong rally amid dovish Fed expectations and US fiscal concerns, with resistance levels at 1.1848 and 1.1885. Support lies at 1.1750, 1.1660, and 1.1616. Upcoming employment data will be crucial in determining whether the pair sustains its upward trend or reverses into a corrective phase.