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Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned today that rising protectionism poses a serious threat to global economic stability

Speaking at an event, Panetta said, "Openness to trade has benefited both advanced and developing nations, reducing inequality and lifting hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty."

However, "protectionism threatens to undo these achievements and to weaken the very fabric of global prosperity," he added.

He emphasized that geopolitical tensions, alongside growing uncertainty in global trade, are becoming central considerations for policymakers.

Market picture

Crypto market capitalisation has returned to below $3 trillion to $2.95 trillion, losing around 0.8% in the last 24 hours and down 1% in seven days. The selling looks like short-term profit taking after the rally of the past two weeks. Market sentiment is neutral with a slight positive bias, with the fear and greed index at 52.

Bitcoin has pulled back below $95000, correcting after briefly breaking above $98000 last Friday. The price has returned to the area of former strong support that worked from December to February. Expectedly, it is now equally strong resistance. Technical correction targets look like the $92500 and $89000 levels. However, a decline below $90000 will already make the nervous, sending the price under the psychologically important round level and the 200-day moving average.

News background

Significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFS in the US continue for the second week in a row. According to SoSoValue data, weekly net inflows into spot BTC-ETFS totalled $1.81bn after $3.06bn the week before, bringing the all-time total to $40.24bn. Net inflows into ETH-ETFS totalled $106.8m last week, bringing the total to $2.51bn.

Fidelity believes Bitcoin has moved from the ‘belief and denial’ zone to the ‘optimism and anxiety’ phase. The first cryptocurrency’s fundamental metrics remain strong despite the asset’s decline from the year’s highs.

Glassnode warns of sell-off risks as bitcoin rises towards $100,000. The cumulative unrealised gains of long-term investors in the first cryptocurrency approached 350%, which has historically coincided with stronger selling.

At the end of Q1, Tether generated an operating profit of $1bn from traditional investments. Investments in US government bonds provided the result, while the positive revaluation of gold almost offset bitcoin’s volatility.

Santiment notes that the number of meme-coin mentions on social media peaked in 2025 due to a shift in traders’ interest in high-risk assets in the last couple of weeks.

• We expect the Fed to maintain its monetary policy unchanged in the May meeting, in line with consensus and market pricing. The Fed will not publish updated economic projections.
• While we expect the Fed to resume cutting rates in June, we doubt Powell will opt for clear forward guidance amid the tariff uncertainty. Growth risks remain tilted to the downside, but rising inflation expectations are still a concern.
• We see current Fed pricing as broadly fair, but see risks skewed towards a dovish market reaction. We maintain our terminal rate forecast at 3.00-3.25% and 12M EUR/USD forecast at 1.22.

After a month of unprecedented tariff uncertainty, the Fed can most likely afford to stay in a 'wait-and-see' mode next week. While the trade war is already weighing on the economy, the effects on hard data have so far been more modest than feared. The combination of recovering equities, lower bond yields, weaker USD and lower oil prices have eased financial conditions markedly after the sharp tightening seen in early April.

FOMC participants' views on the most likely policy implications have varied surprisingly lot over the past weeks. Christopher Waller, who has often been seen as the consensus voice of the committee, took a clear step towards the dovish camp by firmly labelling tariff-driven inflation as 'transitory' and by warning against recessionary signs emerging in H2. Others have sounded more cautious and called for patience, as the negative supply shock on imports and rising consumers' inflation expectations bring back uncomfortable memories from 2021.

The key difference to post-Covid inflation is that the aggregate supply outside of imported goods has not been negatively affected by the trade war, but even the opposite. Last Friday's Jobs Report showed an unexpected uptick in domestic labour supply (chart 1), as the fear of weaker job prospects might have motivated those outside the labour force to seek employment. March JOLTs data showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers declining to 1.02 - the least overheated level since mid-2021. Balanced labour markets reduce the risk of persistent inflation, in our view.

Markets are pricing 112bp of rate cuts by June 2026 - not far from our call of 125bp (chart 2). We think the most likely timing for the next cut is the following meeting in June, but do not anticipate Powell to pre-commit at this stage. As market sentiment has stabilized, the Fed has little incentive for providing forward guidance amid the obvious tariff uncertainty. By June and July, the Fed will likely have much more clarity on both the final level of China tariffs as well as the future of the other 'reciprocal' tariffs.

Market prices in only 8bp for the June meeting, which leaves risks mildly skewed towards a dovish reaction. We see EUR/USD moving higher over the coming year with a 12M target of 1.22, and 10y UST yield declining to 4.20%. Upside risks to yields are more related to the term premium component, than risk-neutral rate expectation. Finally, we do not expect changes to the QT after the taper announcement in March.

As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil opened this Monday morning around $59.00, forming a bearish gap relative to Friday’s closing price of approximately $61.40.

The current Brent crude oil price is near the yearly low reached about a month ago, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs, which turned out to be significantly higher than expected.

Why Is Oil Falling?

As we noted on 30 April, market participants are closely watching news related to OPEC+. Over the weekend, during an online meeting (according to media reports), the following developments occurred:

→ It was stated that the current oil market is fundamentally healthy;

→ A decision was made to accelerate the pace of oil production increases.

According to the plan, output will rise by 411,000 barrels per day — with some believing this move is partly due to certain OPEC+ countries previously failing to adhere to production quotas.

Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart

Oil price movements in 2025 form a descending channel (shown in red), with progressively lower highs and lows indicating bearish sentiment.

Although bulls may hope that the lower boundary of the channel could act as support, bears are showing signs of dominance (as indicated by arrows):

→ the median line of the channel previously acted as resistance;

→ now, similar behaviour is seen at line Q, which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters;

→ the Rounding Top pattern also signals strong selling pressure.

Fundamentally, oil prices are supported by China’s willingness to negotiate tariffs with the US. However, considering the OPEC+ decision and ongoing fears of a global recession, the current downward channel on the Brent crude oil price chart is unlikely to lose relevance any time soon.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold prices climbed to 3,260 USD per troy ounce on Monday, as global uncertainty—particularly around US-China trade negotiations—continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Trade tensions and a weaker dollar support gold

Market sentiment remains cautious after US President Donald Trump stated that China is ready to make a deal, yet offered no specifics on the content or timing of renewed negotiations.

Earlier, Beijing confirmed it was reviewing US proposals to restart talks but reiterated that certain conditions must be met before any dialogue can begin. This lingering uncertainty continues to bolster investor interest in gold.

Adding to the upside pressure, the US dollar weakened, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday evening. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain current interest rates, despite renewed calls from Trump to lower them.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around 3,266 USD. A decline to 3,165 USD is possible in the short term. After reaching this level, the market may correct back up to 3,266 USD. If the correction completes, another downward wave could unfold with a target at 3,033 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold broke below 3,266 USD, reached the local target of 3,202 USD, and then corrected back up to test 3,266 USD from below. The formation of another downside wave towards 3,179 USD is relevant today. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and heading directly towards 20, indicating continued downward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening dollar, while technical indicators point to short-term downside potential before another possible corrective rebound. Key levels to watch are 3,179 USD and 3,165 USD as near-term support, with a broader bearish target at 3,033 USD. The Fed's upcoming meeting may influence price direction depending on its tone regarding interest rates and the broader economic outlook.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose sharply from -19.5 to -8.1,well above expectations. Current Situation Index climbed from -23.3 to -19.3, the highest level since August 2024. Expectations Index turned positive, rising from -15.8 to 3.8.

Sentix credited the European Commission's "level-headed response" toward escalating US trade actions for the improving sentiment. Additionally, a surprising improvement in inflation data has reinforced expectations that ECB will be able to continue its gradual rate-cutting cycle.

While investors are clearly more upbeat, Sentix noted the mood was "more subdued but basically ‘calm’", comparing to March.

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,300. WTI Crude oil is down over 10% and remains at risk of more losses.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher towards the $3,350 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,270 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $60.00 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $57.25 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,250 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,300 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $3,352 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,300 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,250 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested the $3,200 zone. A low has formed near $3,203 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,352 swing high to the $3,203 low.

However, the bears are active below $3,270. Immediate resistance is near $3,270. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,270.

The next major resistance is near the $3,295 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,352 swing high to the $3,203 low. The main resistance could be $3,352, above which the price could test the $3,400 resistance. The next major resistance is $3,500.

An upside break above the $3,500 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,550. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,620 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $3,240 level. The first major support is near the $3,225 level. If there is a downside break below the $3,225 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $3,205 support.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $60.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $58.00.

There was a steady decline below the $57.75 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $56.20 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $55.00 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $55.01, and the price is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the $55.50 level. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $56.10 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $59.49 swing high to the $55.01 low.

The next resistance is near the $57.25 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $57.25. The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $59.49 swing high to the $55.01 low.

The main resistance is near a trend line at $57.75. A clear move above the $57.75 zone could send the price toward $59.45. The next key resistance is near $62.25. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $63.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $65.00 level.

Immediate support is near the $55.00 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $53.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $52.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $50.00 support zone.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Swiss consumer price growth came to a standstill in April, with headline CPI unchanged month-on-month for a second consecutive month.

On an annual basis, inflation slowed sharply from 0.3% yoy to 0.0% yoy, marking a return to flat price levels not seen since the disinflationary spell of early 2021.

Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) also lost momentum, easing from 0.9% yoy to 0.6% yoy.

The softness in inflation was driven by a decline in domestic product prices, which fell -0.1% mom and decelerated from 1.0% yoy to 0.8% yoy. Meanwhile, imported product prices offered a small offset, rising 0.3% mom but still contracting -2.5% yoy (prior -1.7% yoy).

Full Swiss CPI release here.

Markets

The risk rally continued on Friday. European stocks soared by over 2%, catching up with US gains on Thursday (strong Q1 earnings from the likes of Microsoft and Meta). US stock markets gained over 1%. Late on Thursday, Chinese media reported that the US has been proactively reaching out to China through various channels, seeking to negotiate on tariff issues. These vibes spilled into Friday’s session with the WSJ reporting that Beijing is considering ways to address the US administration’s concerns over the country’s role in the fentanyl trade as an icebreaker to get onto speaking terms. An official statement from China’s Commerce Ministry also indicated that it was weighing starting talks with the US, expressing Beijing’s wish to “show sincerity” to talk. In previous official comments, China set slashing steep tariffs as a first condition for negotiations. Gradually walking back on the most dramatic trade talk triggered a huge short squeeze on stock markets since April 9 (90-day pause) with investors and markets putting worst case scenarios to bed. The US is expected to land some first bilateral trade deals (eg India) this week which could give some guidance on how far early tariff rates can be effectively reduced. In the meantime, it helps that economic hard data confirm that thinking, though we agree that quite some frontloading is involved and that sentiment data paint a grim picture. Friday’s strong April payrolls report was testament to the hard data narrative. The US economy added 177k jobs, beating 138k consensus (but 58k downward revision to previous two month’s numbers). The unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2% with a slightly higher participation rate (62.6% from 62.5%). Wage growth was broadly in line with consensus as well (+0.2% M/M & +3.8% Y/Y). The big market reaction to the numbers shows that it was still positioned for worse news. The US yield curve bear flattened with yields rising by 6.6 bps (30-yr) to 12.4 bps (2-yr). US money markets slashed June Fed rate cut bets from around 60% to 30%. Our preferred scenario remains one of the extended pause stretching at least over Summer given outsized US inflationary risks and the Fed’s hawkish, but ignored, tone. The dollar erased earlier losses against the euro, falling back from EUR/USD 1.1380 to 1.13. German Bund yields rose by 7.6 bps (2-yr) to 9.4 bps (5-yr) last Friday with an upward surprise in EMU April inflation popping out. Lower energy prices prevented an even bigger increase. Headline, core and services inflation increased by 0.6% M/M, 1% M/M and 1.3% M/M respectively to 2.2% Y/Y, 2.7% Y/Y and 3.9% Y/Y. EMU money markets still bank on aggressive ECB rate cuts, starting in June. We are still in favour of pause to see how the tariff narrative unfolds. The 90-day pause stretches beyond the June meeting. Today’s eco calendar is empty apart from the April services ISM and a $58bn 3-yr Note auction. We expect a wait-and-see attitude going into Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Risk sentiment is reliant on ongoing trade talk/discussions.

News & Views

The price of a barrel Brent oil slumped to the April lows just north of $59 this morning. Losses could stack up all the way to $50 (2018 low) should the April support break. The collapse follows OPEC+’s decision on Saturday to raise supply next month by another 411k barrels. The surprise move follows last month’s one where the oil cartel announced a similar-sized restoration of output, which was three times more than expected. It raises concerns over a supply glut at a time where global demand is tepid. Saturday’s call, just as April’s, is at least partially designed to punish nations including Kazakhstan and Iraq that are producing beyond their quota with lower prices.

Australia’s Labor Party secured a landslide victory in Sunday’s federal elections. It’s on track to win 86 seats, well over the 76 needed to retain its majority, compared to the 2022 election outcome of 77 seats. Sunday’s outcome gives the current and next prime minister Albanese a strong mandate, which seemed unlikely only two months ago. Labor was trailing the Liberal Party in the polls until early March. Albanese during the campaign had pledged a major boost to public spending, covering amongst others billions of dollars on healthcare, increased wage for care workers, subsidies for home solar batteries and childcare services. On the foreign front, Albanese has to cope with Trump’s trade war and an economically weakening Chinese partner. Australian markets approved the clear-cut election results with a rise of the Aussie dollar against an overall weaker USD. AUD/USD appreciates towards the 0.65 area. Australian sovereign yields rise between 2.7 and 5 bps in a bear flattening move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.09; (P) 192.83; (R1) 194.17; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for consolidations below 193.72. Further rise is expected as long as 189.97 support holds. Above 193.72 will resume the rise from 184.35 and target 195.95 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.