Sample Category Title

• USDJPY pauses meltdown near 2023–2024 base.
• Bulls act but stronger efforts are needed above 144.20.

USDJPY rebounded just above September’s low of 139.56, climbing as high as 143.56 on Wednesday.

Having formed two strong bullish candlesticks at the bottom of its recent meltdown, and with technical indicators emerging from oversold levels, the pair may push for more gains in the short term.

However, the path higher may be rocky. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the broken support trendline – both located in the 144.00–144.40 region – could quickly stall any upward momentum. Then, the 145.50 barrier may prevent an extension towards the 50-day EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 downtrend at 147.20. If the rally continues beyond the tentative resistance trendline at 147.85, the next target could be the 50% Fibonacci mark of 149.40 and the 200-day EMA at 150.00.

In the negative scenario, where current selling pressures persist, attention will shift back to the 140.00 round level and the support line at 139.30. The 138.00 restrictive zone, which capped both upside and downside moves between December 2022 and July 2023, could keep the bears busy, delaying a freefall toward the 134.65–135.00 area.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index edged higher in April, rising from 86.7 to 86.9 and beating market expectations of 85.2. Current Assessment Index climbed to 86.4 from 85.7. Expectations, while slightly lower at 87.4 compared to March’s 87.7, still surpassed the anticipated 85.0.

However, a closer look at the sectoral breakdown reveals growing divergence and fragility. Manufacturing sentiment deteriorated further, dropping from -16.6 to -18.1, while trade confidence took a notable hit, falling from -23.8 to -27.0. On the other hand, modest gains in services (from -1.1 to -0.8) and construction (from -24.3 to -21.9) offered some relief, though both remain firmly in negative territory.

The Ifo Institute cautioned that “uncertainty among the companies has increased,” adding that “the German economy is preparing for turbulence.”

Full German Ifo release here.

Asian stocks ended their five-day winning streak as a short-lived global rally lost steam due to mixed messages from the Trump administration about China tariffs.

A regional stock index dropped 0.3% after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised doubts about resolving the US-China trade war soon. Hong Kong's stocks fell 1.2%, their first drop in four days, and US and European futures also slipped..

Over the past week, President Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell but later backed off from asking for his resignation, leaving investors unsure about the future of tariffs on China despite numerous updates. A source told Reuters that the administration may lower tariffs on Chinese imports if talks with Beijing progress, following a Wall Street Journal report on the possibility.

However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that any tariff cuts would require agreements with China, a stance echoed by White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.

This constant flip-flopping from the White House is not inspiring any form of confidence at present and thus weighing on market sentiment once more.

The yen flipped after two days of losses and the dollar weakened. Gold jumped 1.2% in increased demand for the safe- haven asset as it trades around the $3325/oz handle heading into the European Open.

Currency Strength Chart, Strongest - Weakest: JPY, CHF, EUR, NZD, AUD, CAD, GBP, USD

Source: FinancialJuice

U.S. futures gave up some of their earlier gains, with Nasdaq futures dropping 0.32% and S&P 500 futures falling 0.23%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fluctuated before settling flat, while FTSE futures slipped 0.04%.

Oil prices leveled off after dropping in the US session, as sources said OPEC+ might speed up oil production increases in June.

Tariff developments will remain front and center heading into the European session with China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo stating that China and the US are not in talks yet while stressing that respect is key for such talks to take place.

According to reports, the Trump administration could be looking to cut certain tariffs on the auto industry that carmakers say could badly hurt profits and jobs. Such a move could lead to improved sentiment and potentially another short-term relief rally.

Economic data releases

From a data standpoint, it’s a bit of a quieter one where European data is concerned with German Ifo the main data release.

From the UK we have the UK CBI data and some US earnings which will be released ahead of the US open and could have an impact on US futures and general sentiment as well.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the day - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold prices have seen wild swings this week rising to a high of 3500 before falling to a low yesterday of around 3259.

The selloff was largely down to improved sentiment and profit taking as well but it does appear that bulls have returned.

The confusion on the path forward in US-China relations has lead to renewed safe haven demand overnight which has seen Gold change structure to bullish on a four-hour timeframe.

Looking at the H4 chart below, and you can seen the rally in the Asian session to a high of around 3360 has seen a notable shift in structure.

A four-hour candle close below the 3277 handle will be needed for bears to take the upper hand once more. At present it appears as though a higher low has been printed with Gold possibly eyeing a fresh higher high beyond the 3360 handle.

All in all, Golds price action hints at further gains, but any mention of talks between the US and China could result in a complete change in market sentiment and send Gold lower once more.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 24, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Support

• 3300
• 3277
• 3259

Resistance

• 3360
• 3380
• 3400

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9381; (R1) 0.9428; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 0.9408 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.9204 low will confirm larger down trend resumption. However, sustained break of 0.9408 will suggest that fall from 0.9660 has already finished. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9600) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9928 to 0.9204 from 0.9660 at 0.8936.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8518; (P) 0.8551; (R1) 0.8570; More...

Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidations could be seen below 0.8737 short term top. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8518 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8737 will resume the larger rally from 0.8221. However, sustained break of 0.8518 will bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8444).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7659; (P) 1.7800; (R1) 1.7937; More...

Outlook in EUR/AUD is unchanged as consolidation continues below 1.8554 short term top. Downside of pull back should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, firm break of 1.8554 will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 1.7750 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7324).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress, and in reacceleration phase as seen in W MACD. Next target is 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7417 resistance turned support holds even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.50; (P) 161.99; (R1) 162.79; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 164.16 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, and then 166.67. However, decisive break of 158.27 support will bring deeper decline back to 154.77 support. Overall, sideway consolidation pattern from 154.40 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.83; (P) 189.57; (R1) 190.86; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 190.06 resistance will extend the rebound from 184.35 to 195.95. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 184.35 will target 180.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Copper ($HG) has been displaying a strong bullish trend, with the rally from the July 11, 2022 low unfolding in a Elliott Wave diagonal. This rally is structured as a 5-swing pattern, which is characteristic of a motive wave. This suggests that the broader trend favors further upside. As of the latest price action, the metal has completed a significant corrective phase and is now positioned for additional gains.

The recent pullback to the 4.03 low on April 7, 2025, marked the completion of wave ((4)). It is a corrective wave within the larger 5-wave diagonal structure. Following this low, copper has turned higher, initiating wave ((5)). This wave ((5)) is the final leg of the motive sequence. Within wave ((5)), the short-term rally from the wave ((4)) low at 4.03 appears to be unfolding in an impulsive manner, indicating strong upward momentum. Wave 1 ended at 4.465 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 4.038. The metal then rallied higher in wave 3 towards 4.748 and wave 4 dips ended at 4.564.

Expect cycle from April 7, 2025 low to end soon with wave 5 of (1) and the metal to see a 3 waves pullback. However, as long as pullbacks remain above the 4.03 low, copper is expected to see more upside. The Elliott Wave framework continues to support a bullish bias for $HG in the near term.

Copper (HG) 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart

HG Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsJk9RbxrS0

Markets

In the ‘Trump’ era glass-half-empty back to glass-half-full swings have become standard procedure and the trick was again at work yesterday. After indications that he was considering options to dismiss the Fed chair earlier this week, US president Trump moved to a more conciliatory tone vis-à-vis the Fed and its Chair. At the same time, comments from president Trump and press reports (including from the WSJ) suggested that some mitigation in the tariff war with China might be in the cards as well. Some see it as a kind of (at least short-term) Trump put as market turmoil is at risk of spiraling into outright chaos. Equity markets rebounded sharply in Europe and at the US open. Even so, those markets soon realized that any comment remains conditional only up to the next phase in the US administration’s communication. This ‘feeling’ only was reinforced by comments from Treasury secretary Bessent that the US didn’t intend to reduce tariffs on China unilaterally. In the end, US equities still closed with decent gains (S&P 500 + 1.67%, Nasdaq 2.50%) but well off the intraday highs. The US curve flattened with the 2-y adding 5.2 bps while the 30-y declined 5.5 bps. In the current environment, this move can be considered as an easing of the pressures that were building earlier this week. The closely watched 5-y US action was OK. Similar story for the dollar. DXY rebounded to close near 99.85, to be compared with a correction low just below 98 on Monday. Still, this doesn’t improve the overall picture on the US currency in any profound way. EUR/USD also corrected further to close at 1.1315. This euro ‘decline’ occurred even as the European/German yield curve bear flattened with German yields rising between 8.5 bps (2-y) and 5.2 bps (30-y). The move in the first place also should be considered as a risk-on correction. At the same time, EMU April PMI’s saw some fall-out from the global uncertainty (composite PMI 50.1 from 50.9), but the damage could even been bigger, with especially manufacturing showing some (unexpected?) resilience. ECB comments from Lagarde and Villeroy indicated some potential deflationary effects for the EU economy from the current trade uncertainty. Even so, the PMI’s suggest no need for the ECB rush into stimulative territory given current context of elevated uncertainty.

Asian equity markets this morning show no clear directional trend as yesterday’s WS optimism is petering out. Later today, the eco calendar contains German IFO business confidence, US durable goods orders and jobless claims and a $44 bln US 7-y Note auction. Recently, eco data most often only had limited impact on trading and often told more about market positioning rather than on the underlying eco narrative. The pressure on LT US Treasuries eased for now, but the 4.20%/4.25% area for 10-y looks like strong ‘support’. In EUR/USD 1.1264/1.1144 are the first references that needs to be cleared to call of the EUR/USD ascent. We’re not that far yet.

News & Views

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) showed new EU car registrations declining slightly in March (-0.2% Y/Y) with Q1 2025 registrations being 1.9% lower compared to Q1 2024 in the particularly challenging and unpredictable global (trade) context for auto makers. Hybrid electric vehicles are the most popular in EU, capturing 35.5% market share in Q1 (from 28.9% in Q1 2024). Battery EV’s grab a 15.2% market share in the Jan-March period, up from 12% last year, but still way below where they were expected to be. Three of the four largest markets in the EU, accounted for 63% of all battery-electric car registrations, recorded robust gains: Germany (+38.9%; 17% market share Q1 2025), Belgium (+29.9%; 33.4% market share), and the Netherlands (+7.9%; 35.3% market share). This contrasted with France, which saw a decline of 6.6% (18.2% market share). Petrol cars (28.7% from 35.9%) are the second largest category of new registrations, but the combined share of petrol and diesel cars fell to 38.3% from 48.3% over the same period last year.

The Financial Times reports that US President Trump is planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks. It would be a destacking of duties, exempting car parts from tariffs on imports from China related to fentanyl chemical exports as well as from those on steel and aluminum. They are already shielded from reciprocal tariffs while imports for cars from Mexico and Canada already have better terms if they comply with the USMCA trade treaty (only tariffs on non-US content). The 25% tariff imposed on all imports of foreign-made cars would stay in play as well as the separate 25% on parts which is due to take effect from May 3.