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Market sentiment today is largely influenced by a mix of global PMI releases and ongoing uncertainty around US tariff policy. There are reports suggesting the Trump administration may exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs from the sweeping reciprocal levies set to begin on April 2. US futures are pointing to a solid open, suggesting investors are hoping for a more surgical, less disruptive approach to trade action.

However, clarity is still lacking. It’s unclear whether excluded sectors will be spared entirely or if reciprocal tariffs will blanket all imports, with sectoral levies added on top later. Despite the ambiguity, sentiment has been lifted, with US futures pointing to a solid open.

European currencies are also finding some support alongside gains in regional equities. However, upside in both Euro and Sterling is capped by mixed PMI data. In the Eurozone, manufacturing showed a smaller contraction and even a bounce in output, signaling green shoots. Yet, service sector growth lost momentum, adding to the sense of an uneven recovery. In the UK, services surprised with strong growth, but manufacturing activity deteriorated sharply, dragging down the overall tone of the report.

Meanwhile, Australia outperformed, with both sectors registering improvements and supporting Aussie’s strength today. On the other hand, Yen is under pressure as Japan’s services PMI fell into contraction territory, raising concerns about domestic demand and the broader economic outlook.

Currency performance reflects this divergence. Aussie is currently the strongest performer for the day, followed by Sterling and Swiss Franc. At the bottom of the table, Yen leads losses, followed by Kiwi and Dollar. Loonie and Euro sit in the middle of the pack.

Technically, Silver could have formed a short term top at 34.21, ahead of 34.84 resistance. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 32.07) will suggest that rebound from 28.74 has already completed. Further break of 30.78 support will indicate that corrective pattern from 34.84 has already started the third leg back to 28.74 support and possibly below.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.22%. DAX is down -0.06%. CAC is down -0.12%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.001 at 4.723. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.028 at 2.797. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.18%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.91%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.028 to 1.545.

UK PMI manufacturing falls to 44.6, while services rises to 53.2

UK delivered a mixed set of PMI readings in March, with services providing a welcome surprise as the index rose from 51.0 to 53.2, a 7-month high. PMI Composite also improved from 50.5 to 52.0, suggesting modest expansion. However, the picture was clouded by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing, where the index slumped from 46.9 to 44.6 — its lowest level in 18 months.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, cautioned against over-optimism, noting that “one good PMI doesn’t signal a recovery.”

The data points to the economy barely expanding, with GDP growth tracking around 0.1% for the quarter. Employment continues to be trimmed as firms remain wary of rising costs and an uncertain economic outlook, with business confidence still hovering near January’s two-year low.

Looking ahead, challenges appear to be mounting. Businesses are bracing for higher National Insurance contributions starting in April,. Additionally, the anticipated unveiling of US tariff policy on April 2 adds another uncertainty.

ECB’s Cipollone: Case for rate cuts strengthens amid falling energy, rising Euro and trade risks

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone struck a dovish tone in an interview with Expansión, signaling that recent developments have reinforced the case for further interest rate cuts.

Cipollone noted that at the time of the March meeting, ECB projections already showed inflation converging to the 2% target by early 2026—even under a rate path that included market expectations of cuts below 2%.

Since then, "not only has this narrative been confirmed, but key issues have arisen that have strengthened the arguments in favour of continuing to lower rates", he added.

Cipollone noted that energy price pressures have already begun to reverse. Meanwhile, Euro appreciation and higher real interest rates are working in tandem to cool price growth.

If US tariffs on European goods materialize, that would have a "negative impact on demand", which would "further strengthen the downward trend in inflation". Similarly, escalating U.S.-China trade conflict may push Chinese goods into Europe, adding to price suppression across the bloc.

Notably, Cipollone suggested that inflation could reach target even sooner than the ECB’s latest projections anticipate.

Eurozone PMI hints at green shoots, manufacturing leads the way

Eurozone PMI data for March offered fresh signs of economic stabilization, with Composite index rising to a 7-month high of 50.4, supported by a notable rebound in manufacturing. The PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.6 to 48.7, its highest level in 26 months. Manufacturing output crossed into expansion territory at 50.7, a 34-month high. Services PMI slipped slightly from 50.6 to 50.4, but remained in growth territory.

Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank noted the possibility that "temporary tariff-related import boom" could be inflating manufacturing figures. But he also expressed optimism that with, Europe’s investment drive in defense and infrastructure, "hope for a more sustained recovery seems well founded".

Encouragingly for ECB, pricing pressures in the services sector are easing, with both input costs and output prices decelerating. In manufacturing, price pressures remain moderate as well, helped by falling energy costs.

However, risks remain. Potential retaliation tariffs from the US, trade tensions with China, and higher food prices caused by extreme weather events are all sources of uncertainty that could cloud the outlook and "make some ECB members hesitant to cut rates too aggressively."

BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms commitment to rate hikes despite market and financial pressures

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that the central bank remains committed to raise interest rate if underlying inflation is deemed to be approaching its 2% target.

He emphasized that BoJ’s objectives remain squarely focused on price stability, and that its approach to policy "would not be disturbed by considerations for the BoJ's finances."

Ueda’s remarks come as concerns mount over the BoJ’s balance sheet in light of interest rate hikes and volatility in equity markets.

BoJ estimated in December that if short-term borrowing costs were to rise to 2%, it could incur losses of up to JPY 2 trillion.

Additionally, Ueda noted that a 1000-point drop in the Nikkei 225 index would translate into a valuation loss of about JPY 1.8 trillion in its ETF holding.

While these figures highlight the scale of financial risks, Ueda’s insistence on prioritizing price stability signals that BoJ is prepared to weather market volatility in pursuit of its monetary policy mandate.

Japan PMI composite falls to 48.5, business confidence sinks to lowest since 2020

Japan’s private sector saw a sharp loss in momentum at the end of Q1, with PMI Composite falling from 52.0 to 48.5, marking the first contraction in five months. PMI Manufacturing dropped from 49.0 to 48.3, its lowest in a year and ninth consecutive month in contraction. More concerning was the steep decline in PMI services, which fell from 53.7 to 49.5 — the weakest reading since mid-2024.

According to Annabel Fiddes of S&P Global, the downturn was driven by a "fresh fall in service sector activity" and an accelerated decline in manufacturing. Firms pointed to "strong inflationary pressure had dampened sales", with clients showing increasing hesitation to place orders.

The broader picture is one of growing pessimism. Japanese firms cited a host of structural and cyclical challenges — from persistent inflation and labor shortages to an aging population and deepening global trade uncertainty. As a result, business confidence for future activity fell to its lowest level since August 2020.

Australia's PMI manufacturing jumps to 52.6, services rises to 51.2

Australia’s PMI Manufacturing surged to 52.6 from 50.4—marking a 29-month high—while PMI Services ticked up to 51.2 from 50.8. PMI Composite , which combines both sectors, rose to a 7-month high at 51.3.

Jingyi Pan of S&P Global Market Intelligence highlighted that the output growth was not only the strongest in seven months but also "broad-based" across both manufacturing and services. Despite a decline in export orders due to weather disruptions and weak global conditions, domestic demand rebounded impressively, pushing new orders to their highest growth rate in nearly three years.

However, the report also highlighted a notable dip in business confidence. Suppressed price increases may have helped support near-term demand. But "tariff uncertainty may continue to cast a shadow on output growth in the year ahead".

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8805; (P) 0.8823; (R1) 0.8849; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as consolidations continue in established range above 0.8757. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

• Gold slows moderately after hitting an all-time high of 3,057.
• Price finds support near 3,000, but technical signals flag caution.
• Bulls may need a close above 3,067 to attract new buyers.

Gold opened neutral around Friday’s closing price of 3,023 as the final trading week of March kicked off. The precious metal moved to the sidelines as investors speculated that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would be less punitive than previously expected – likely excluding some countries and avoiding sector-specific barriers.

However, the bounce near the psychological 3,000 mark revealed that demand for safe-haven assets remains intact, while expectations of further rate cuts in the US also helped support prices.

Still, with the RSI and the stochastic oscillator tilting south after peaking in the overbought zone, questions arise about how long gold can maintain its footing after a strong three-week bullish streak.

The constraining line from February at 2,993 could provide protection in the coming sessions if downside pressures resurface. If not, the bears could push the price toward the crucial 2,930-2,950 zone, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the tentative support trendline from January are positioned. A break below this level would weaken the short-term outlook and likely trigger a stronger selling wave toward the 50-day SMA, currently at 2,875.

On the upside, a sustainable move above 3,067 may activate fresh buying orders, bringing the 3,100 round level next into view. A continuation higher could then challenge the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the previous decline at 3,155.

Summing up, gold’s positive momentum may take a breather in the coming sessions. However, only a drop beneath 2,930-2,950 would make the current uptrend less credible.

Gold holds within a narrow range at the beginning of the week but remains constructive above $3000 level (psychological / 10DMA).

Recent pullback from new historical high ($3057) found firm ground at $3000 which was highlighted as strong support, with Friday’s strong rejection here, adding to significance of support.

Near-term action so far looks as consolidation ahead of fresh push higher after bullish stance was reinforced by weekly close above $3000.

Technical studies remain firmly bullish on daily chart, though overbought conditions may keep the price in prolonged consolidation, with potential dips below $3000 not ruled out.

Fundamentals are expected to remain a key driver, with hawkish Fed (kept rates on hold and signaled two 25bp rate cuts in 2025), escalating geopolitical situation and gloomy economic outlook, including threats that escalating trade war would fuel inflation, to continue to boost safe haven demand.

On the other hand, hope that peace talks between USA, Russia and Ukraine would give some results and ease tensions, along with the latest softer rhetoric from President Trump regarding tariffs (due to be imposed on Apr 2) would contribute to easing high uncertainty and negatively slow migration into safety.

Near term action is to remain biased higher while $3000 support holds, with sustained break above cracked $3029 barrier (50% retracement of $3057/$2999 pullback) needed to verify bullish signal.

Conversely, loss of $3000 handle would sideline bulls and open way for deeper pullback, which should find footstep above $2971 (Fibo 38.2% of $2832/$3057 bull-leg) to mark a healthy correction and keep larger bulls intact.

Res: 3035; 3047; 3057; 3079.
Sup: 3013; 3000; 2971; 2956.

• Interest Rate Outlook: Markets price the Official Cash Rate (OCR) above 3%, but risks suggest lower rates may be needed due to spare economic capacity.
• Economic Growth: Q4 GDP growth of 0.7% exceeded expectations but included one-off factors unlikely to persist.
• Inflation Risks: With high spare capacity (~ -1.5% output gap), disinflation remains a concern, increasing the risk of rates undershooting market expectations.

Fundamental Factors Affecting NZD

1. Growth Outlook: While NZ is technically out of recession, the underlying recovery remains weak, with low consumption growth (0.1%) and a declining residential investment sector.
2. Labour Market & Inflation: Unemployment has yet to peak, and inflation is close to target, meaning the RBNZ may need to keep rates neutral for longer or even cut below 3%.
3. Housing Market: 44% of mortgages are fixed for six months or less, meaning homeowners may benefit from lower fixed rates. However, it is unclear whether rising unemployment will boost spending.
4. External Factors: Higher commodity prices support exports, but global trade tariffs could slow growth.
5. Political & Policy Uncertainty:

• RBNZ forecasts above-trend growth (2.6%)—which may be optimistic given trade risks.
• Political uncertainty, including the departure of RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, adds to volatility.

Key Takeaway for Traders

• NZD downside risks remain as economic slack persists, and rate cuts below 3% are possible.
• Watch for inflation undershooting in the coming months. If confirmed, the RBNZ may need a longer period of neutral or lower rates, pressuring the NZD.
• Housing stabilization and strong exports could provide limited upside, but overall growth is unlikely to remove spare capacity quickly.

EURNZD – H4 Timeframe

Following the bearish break of structure on the 4-hour timeframe chart of EURNZD, the Fibonacci retracement tool was plotted, with levels 61% to 88% being the significant areas of focus. The subsequent retracement is approaching the supply zone that overlaps the 61.8% retracement level after having swept liquidity from the previous internal structure, leading to a bearish sentiment.

EURNZD – H2 Timeframe

The price action on EURNZD's 2-hour timeframe chart validates the 4-hour timeframe sentiment by revealing the FVG (Fair Value Gap) that the price is expected to fill before being rejected from the supply zone.

Analyst's Expectations:

• Direction: Bearish
• Target- 1.84964
• Invalidation- 1.91228

UK delivered a mixed set of PMI readings in March, with services providing a welcome surprise as the index rose from 51.0 to 53.2, a 7-month high. PMI Composite also improved from 50.5 to 52.0, suggesting modest expansion. However, the picture was clouded by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing, where the index slumped from 46.9 to 44.6 — its lowest level in 18 months.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, cautioned against over-optimism, noting that “one good PMI doesn’t signal a recovery.”

The data points to the economy barely expanding, with GDP growth tracking around 0.1% for the quarter. Employment continues to be trimmed as firms remain wary of rising costs and an uncertain economic outlook, with business confidence still hovering near January’s two-year low.

Looking ahead, challenges appear to be mounting. Businesses are bracing for higher National Insurance contributions starting in Apri. Additionally, the anticipated unveiling of US tariff policy on April 2 adds another uncertainty.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Eurozone PMI data for March offered fresh signs of economic stabilization, with Composite index rising to a 7-month high of 50.4, supported by a notable rebound in manufacturing. The PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.6 to 48.7, its highest level in 26 months. Manufacturing output crossed into expansion territory at 50.7, a 34-month high. Services PMI slipped slightly from 50.6 to 50.4, but remained in growth territory.

Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank noted the possibility that "temporary tariff-related import boom" could be inflating manufacturing figures. But he also expressed optimism that with, Europe’s investment drive in defense and infrastructure, "hope for a more sustained recovery seems well founded".

Encouragingly for ECB, pricing pressures in the services sector are easing, with both input costs and output prices decelerating. In manufacturing, price pressures remain moderate as well, helped by falling energy costs.

However, risks remain. Potential retaliation tariffs from the US, trade tensions with China, and higher food prices caused by extreme weather events are all sources of uncertainty that could cloud the outlook and "make some ECB members hesitant to cut rates too aggressively."

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

As seen on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil prices are hovering near last week’s highs this morning as market participants assess various influencing factors, including:

→ New U.S. sanctions on Iran, which are limiting its export capacity and tightening global supply, particularly to China.

→ Ongoing negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia in Saudi Arabia, which could potentially lead to increased Russian oil exports.

→ OPEC+ plans to raise oil production starting in April.

Technical Analysis of XBR/USD

From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil is trading near a key resistance zone, which consists of:

→ A bearish Fair Value Gap (highlighted in purple).

→ The upper boundary of the descending channel.

→ The upper boundary of a narrowing triangle (shown in black), which can be interpreted as a Rising Wedge pattern.

The Rising Wedge may represent a corrective rebound within a broader bearish trend. If buyers fail to break through this resistance zone, Brent crude prices could resume their downtrend within the red channel.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone struck a dovish tone in an interview with Expansión, signaling that recent developments have reinforced the case for further interest rate cuts.

Cipollone noted that at the time of the March meeting, ECB projections already showed inflation converging to the 2% target by early 2026—even under a rate path that included market expectations of cuts below 2%.

Since then, "not only has this narrative been confirmed, but key issues have arisen that have strengthened the arguments in favour of continuing to lower rates", he added.

Cipollone noted that energy price pressures have already begun to reverse. Meanwhile, Euro appreciation and higher real interest rates are working in tandem to cool price growth.

If US tariffs on European goods materialize, that would have a "negative impact on demand", which would "further strengthen the downward trend in inflation". Similarly, escalating U.S.-China trade conflict may push Chinese goods into Europe, adding to price suppression across the bloc.

Notably, Cipollone suggested that inflation could reach target even sooner than the ECB’s latest projections anticipate.

Full interview of ECB's Cipollone here.

Gold price rallied further and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is attempting a recovery wave but upsides could be limited.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase above the $3,000 zone against the US Dollar.
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $3,028 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices started a recovery wave from the $66.00 support zone.
•  There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $67.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,950 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $2,980.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,000. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,015 and $3,030 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed as high as $3,057 before there was a pullback.

The price tested the $3,000 zone and is currently rising. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $3,057 swing high to the $2,999 low, and the RSI is stable above 40.

Immediate resistance is near the $3,028 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $3,057 swing high to the $2,999 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,028.

The next major resistance is near the $3,035 level. An upside break above the $3,035 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,058. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,080 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $3,012 level. The first major support is near the $3,000 zone. If there is a downside break below the $3,000 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,980 zone. Any more losses might push the price toward the $2,965 level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price remained in a bearish zone below the $70.00 level against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $68.00 support.

The price even dipped below the $67.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near $66.00 and the price started a recovery wave. The price recovered above $67.50 and tested the $68.50 zone.

The price is now consolidating gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66.54 swing low to the $68.48 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $67.50.

If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the $68.30 level. The first major resistance is near the $68.50 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $69.20 level.

The main resistance could be near the $70.00 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $67.50 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66.54 swing low to the $68.48 high. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $67.00.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.55. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.10 support zone.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

US and European bond markets on Friday were captured in technical trading, pondering the recent repositioning. US yields mid last week corrected lower after Fed Chair Powell tried to send some kind of comforting message alongside a dots projection basically pointing to growing stagflationary risks (higher inflation and lower growth this year). Question remains whether this benign neglect from Powell assuming temporary inflationary impact of tariffs should comfort bond investors. The setback in US yields soon found support. In a steepening move, US yields changed between -1.5 bps (2-y) and +3.3 bps (30-y). German/EMU yields also entered mild correction after the sharp jump in yields in the wake the fiscal U-turn in Germany and the Re-arm Europe initiative early this month. The changes to the German constitutional debt break where approved last week. Markets are now in the process of assessing how/how fast this might filter through into the real economy. The German curve on Friday also mildly steepened with the short end declining (2-y -3.9 bps) while the 30-y added 0.9 bps. After recent European outperformance, US equities also slightly outperformed Europe with the Nasdaq rising 0.52% compared to the EuroStoxx 50 ceding 0.5%. This relative (short-term) repositioning was also visible in FX markets. DXY closed at 104.1, off the correction lows near 103.2 registered earlier last week. EUR/USD also eased further to finish the week at 1.082, to be compared to a correction top near 1.095 set on Tuesday.

Asian equity markets mostly trade slightly lower to little changed. US futures show further gains. Investors apparently are drawing some comfort from comments (including on Bloomberg) referring to US officials that the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ to be imposed on April 2 might be more targeted/more limited in scope that initially planned. US yields are gaining about 3 bps across the curve this morning. The dollar eases marginally in this tentative risk-on. (DXY 104.0; EUR/USD 1.084). The yen underperforms after weaker than expected March PMI’s (cf infra). Later today, the focus turns to the EMU and US PMI’s. For the EMU PMI’s, question is how fast the fiscal U-turn in the region will translate into higher demand for European products and services. At least it should help the forward looking expectations assessment. Even so, the bar from consensus expectations (EMU composite expected at 51.1 from 50.4) isn’t that high. Assuming an ongoing assessment on sticky costs and prices, the PMI’s should help to put a floor under the recent correction in EMU yields. The EMU 2-y swap yield at 2.25% is already close to what might turn out the bottom of the ECB easing cycle. The EMU 10-y swap yield (currently 2.665%) might find support at the January top (2.625%). A decent solid PMI also might help to put a floor for the euro (EUR/USD correction). For US PMI’s markets might look out to what extent they confirm the stagflationary narrative. If so, we also expect it to help putting a floor for US yields, especially at a the short end of the curve.

News & Views

Japanese PMIs retreated in contraction territory in March with the composite indicator signaling falling private sector activity (48.5) for the first time since October. This was partly due to a fresh fall in services (49.5). Manufacturing output continued to fall, at the fastest pace for a year (48.5). Composite new orders fell slightly amid notably slowing business for services companies and orders falling solidly in manufacturing. Firms noted that strong inflationary pressures had dampened sales and made some customers hesitant. This won’t change soon with the PMIs signaling elevated cost pressures. Sharply rising input costs translated into higher selling prices. Optimism about the future dipped to the lowest since August 2020. “Strong inflation, coupled with concerns over labour shortages, an ageing population, subdued client spending and increased uncertainty over the international trade environment dampened optimism around the outlook.” The Japanese yen faces some moderate selling pressure this morning. USD/JPY is testing the 150 figure, EUR/JPY moves beyond 162. Japanese yields continue to move north (1-2 bps rise across the curve), eying the inflationary message of the PMIs.

France joined a currently still small group of member states that what the EU to use its anti-coercion tool against the US if president Trump uses tariffs in an unfairly manner which push the bloc into policy changes. The instrument is the EU’s most powerful retaliatory measure which includes amongst others restrictions on trade and services as well as on certain intellectual property rights. But most officials from the European Commission do not want to commit to this “measure of last resort” just yet, at least not until it is clear what April 2 will bring. Trump is then expected to announce reciprocal tariffs but the scope is unclear and still under discussion. The EC recently postponed retaliatory responses to the US metal tariffs to mid-April to allow for negotiations.