Sample Category Title
WTI Crude Oil Price Begins Rebound—Can Bulls Sustain the Momentum?
Key Highlights
- WTI Crude Oil prices started a recovery wave from the $65.20 zone.
- It traded above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.40 on the 4-hour chart.
- Gold prices corrected some gains from the $3,050 resistance.
- Bitcoin recovered ground and cleared the $86,500 resistance.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
WTI Crude Oil price extended losses below $70.00. The price tested the $65.20 zone and recently started a recovery wave.
Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price was able to clear the $66.50 and $67.00 resistance levels. It cleared the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $73.12 swing high to the $65.22 low.
The price traded above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.40 on the same chart. There was a move above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and a spike above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $73.12 swing high to the $65.22 low.
On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $69.80 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The main hurdle is now near the $70.10 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher.
In the stated case, it could even visit the $71.50 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $72.00 resistance zone in the near term.
On the downside, the first major support sits near the $67.60 zone. A daily close below $67.60 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $66.40. Any more losses might send oil prices toward $65.00 in the coming days.
Looking at Gold, there was a strong increase above the $3,020 level and the price is now correcting some gains.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- US Housing Price Index for Jan 2025 (MoM) - Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.4% previous.
- US New Home Sales for Feb 2025 (MoM) – Forecast -0.8% versus -10.5% previous.
BoJ minutes signal readiness to tighten further if outlook holds
Minutes from BoJ’s January 23–24 meeting revealed a growing consensus among policymakers that further tightening would be appropriate, provided the current economic and price outlooks hold.
While the central bank raised policy rate to 0.5%, members acknowledged that real interest rates remained "significantly negative", ensuring "accommodative financial conditions would be maintained."
However, the path ahead is clouded by global uncertainty. While BoJ held rates steady at its latest meeting last week, it flagged increasing risks from escalating US tariffs.
Nevertheless, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that stronger-than-expected wage growth and persistent food price inflation could keep upward pressure on underlying prices, indicating that the case for another rate hike remains very much alive.
Fed’s Bostic sees just one rate cut in 2025, warns tariffs may reinforce inflation
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a Bloomberg interview that he's now projecting just one cut by year-end, down from his earlier expectation of two.
Bostic explained the shift was due to his view that inflation will be "very bumpy and not move dramatically and in a clear way to the 2% target”. With inflation unlikely to return to target until 2027, he believes the path to neutral must also be delayed.
Bostic also expressed concern about the inflationary impact of rising tariffs. While such measures are often assumed to cause a one-off increase in prices, Bostic suggested the current environment could be different.
In his view, businesses and consumers may have grown more tolerant of elevated inflation following the pandemic, making price hikes more likely to stick. He noted that many business leaders now feel confident about "a complete pass-through" of higher costs on to customers without fear of losing market share.
BoE’s Bailey calls for trade cooperation and embraces AI as growth catalyst
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey urged greater international cooperation to resolve growing strains in the global trading system. In a speech overnight, he pointed to the disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, emphasizing that resolving these challenges requires "multilateral setting rather than set tariffs bilaterally".
In a more optimistic tone, Bailey also pointed to artificial intelligence as a transformative force for the UK and global economy. Comparing AI to electricity in the early 20th century, he said the technology could meaningfully raise growth and per capita income over time. He called for policy support to facilitate AI’s development as the "most likely general purpose technology,” capable of driving broad-based economic gains in the years ahead.
ECB’s Escriva warns of extreme uncertainty and skewed growth risks
In remarks delivered overnight, Spanish ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva highlighted that “growth risks are more downside than upside.” While he acknowledged that supportive fiscal policy could offer some near-term uplift, he stressed that the broader risks — particularly to the downside — are dominating the economic outlook.
Escriva painted a grim picture of the current global backdrop, describing it as “extremely uncertain.” He noted that today’s uncertainty global index levels are at their highest since records began — exceeding those during the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the 9/11 attacks, and even the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.
Despite the fact that worst-case, disruptive scenarios have yet to materialize, Escriva emphasized that ECB must be “readier than ever” to revise its forecasts and relevant action should conditions change".
USDJPY Wave Analysis
USDJPY: ⬆️ Buy
- USDJPY broke the resistance zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 151.35
The USDJPY currency pair rose strongly after breaking the resistance zone between the resistance level of 150.00 and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel in January.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of March.
Given the strongly bullish US dollar sentiment seen today, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 151.35 (the high of wave iv from last month).
Dow Jones Wave Analysis
Dow Jones: ⬆️ Buy
- Dow Jones reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 43000.00
Dow Jones index continues to rise inside the short-term correction iv which started earlier from the support zone located between the support level 41000.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The active correction iv belongs to the C-wave of the extended ABC correction (4) from the start of December.
Given the long-term uptrend, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 43000.00.
Brent Crude Oil Wave Analysis
Brent crude oil: ⬆️ Buy
- Brent crude oil broke resistance zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 73.60
Brent crude oil recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 71.30 (top of wave A), resistance trendline of the daily down channel in January and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of March.
Brent crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 73.60 (top of the previous minor correction 4 from the end of February).
XTIUSD: WTI’s Bullish Attempt May Reverse
Technical Analysis
- WTI Crude Oil: Attempting to break out of a consolidation range.
- Key Resistance: $70 (psychological level) & 50-day EMA.
- Key Support: $67-$65 range (historical support for three years).
- Brent Crude: Following a similar pattern, testing the 50-day EMA resistance.
Fundamental Drivers
- U.S. Sanctions on Iran could tighten supply.
- OPEC+ production adjustments may balance increased output against voluntary cuts.
- Ceasefire talks in Ukraine could impact Russian crude supply.
- Tariff uncertainty from the U.S. could influence demand expectations.
Key Takeaway for Traders
- Bullish bias above $67: A breakout past $70 and the 50-day EMA could trigger further upside.
- Buying dips: Strong support at $65-$67 makes pullbacks attractive buying opportunities.
- Volatility ahead: Watch for geopolitical shifts & OPEC+ actions as key catalysts.
XTIUSD – H4 Timeframe
The price action on the 4-hour timeframe chart of XTIUSD is currently leaning on the 200-period moving average resistance near the 76% Fibonacci retracement level, right in the middle of the rally-base-drop supply. The bearish array of the moving averages is another clue that points to the likelihood of a bearish outcome.
XTIUSD – H2 Timeframe
On the 2-hour timeframe chart of XTIUSD, we see the previous bearish break of structure, the FVG (Fair Value Gap) created by the breakout momentum, and the inducement from the internal structure highs. Comparing this with the higher timeframe sentiment leaves the bearish sentiment as the more probable option.
Analyst’s Expectations:
- Direction: Bearish
- Target- 65.05
- Invalidation- 70.50
