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UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized to 48.0 in November, marking a nine-month low and reflecting a deepening contraction in the sector. The decline from October's 49.9 underscores persistent challenges, including high costs, subdued demand, and a "bleak" export environment.

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that conditions "deteriorated again" as manufacturers faced falling output, reduced orders, and cutbacks in purchasing, jobs, and inventories.

Exports remained under pressure, with weaker demand from key markets in the US, China, and the EU driving a further decline in new export business. Supply chain disruptions also intensified, fueled by the ongoing Red Sea crisis, port delays, and border regulation challenges.

Looking ahead, the manufacturing sector faces additional headwinds. Recent UK budget measures, including higher labor costs and employer national insurance contributions, are expected to increase operational expenses in 2025.

Combined with rising geopolitical tensions and the threat of heightened global protectionism, manufacturers are bracing for an extended period of "high costs, low demand and raised uncertainty".

Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 45.2 in November, down from October’s 46.0, reflecting deepening contraction in the sector.

The downturn remains widespread, with manufacturing activity deteriorating across major economies. Germany and France recorded PMI readings of 43.0 and 43.1 (a 10-month low), respectively, indicating severe weaknesses. Italy followed closely at 44.5, hitting a 12-month low, while the Netherlands posted a reading of 46.6, an 11-month low. Spain and Greece maintained levels above 50, but both fell to two-month lows at 53.1 and 50.9, respectively.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, described the figures as "terrible," suggesting the manufacturing recession “is never going to end.”

De la Rubia forecasted a -0.7% contraction in manufacturing output for Q4, with the slump likely "going to drag into next year". The capital goods sector is bearing the brunt of the downturn, while companies continue to trim staff, signaling rising unemployment ahead.

Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

As reflected in the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver this morning is trading near $30.2, just above a critical support zone formed by:

→ The psychological level of $30.00;

→ The lower boundary of the ascending channel. As indicated by the blue arrows, this lower boundary has consistently provided support, enabling bullish reversals in silver prices throughout 2024.

However, the price is currently below the 200-day moving average (MA), which is trending downward. An examination of price action in November reveals a lack of sustained growth following two breaches of the psychological level. As the red arrows illustrate:

→ On the first occasion, the price encountered resistance near $31.50;

→ On the second, it failed to rise above $31.

This could indicate weak demand, increasing the risk of a bearish breakout below the key support zone, potentially breaking the 2024 uptrend.

Meanwhile, analysts remain optimistic, citing strong fundamentals. According to media reports:

→ ANZ Research analysts forecast silver prices reaching $35.4 in 2025;

→ JP Morgan analysts predict silver at $36;

→ Saxo Bank analysts anticipate prices climbing to $40 by 2025.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

On Monday, the AUD/USD pair remains stable around the 0.6450 mark. After benefiting from the US dollar's weakness during the extended US holiday weekend, the currency pair faced new pressures following remarks by US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump's threat to impose 100% trade tariffs on BRICS nations if they pursue a universal currency to replace the US dollar has sparked a renewed demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering the USD.

October's retail sales figures exceeded expectations, supporting the Australian dollar, and reinforcing the market's belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not cut rates soon. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently highlighted that core inflation remains elevated, which justifies continuing a restrictive monetary policy stance. The RBA believes it will take some time before inflation stabilises near its target.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD is currently in the first phase of a correction wave, having achieved a local target at 0.6527. The market is now forming a decline structure towards 0.6466, and once this level is reached, a new growth phase will begin, aiming for 0.6542. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line above zero and trending upwards, indicating potential for continued growth.

H1 chart: the pair has nearly reached the local growth target of 0.6527. A decline to 0.6470 is expected shortly, followed potentially by a rise to 0.6500 and then a drop to 0.6466. If this level is achieved, the market may prepare for another upward movement towards 0.6542. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line currently below 50 and expected to drop to 20, suggesting a forthcoming reversal and potential for growth.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 189.79; (P) 191.07; (R1) 192.00; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 199.79 should target 183.70 support. Break there will bring retest of 180.00 low. On the downside, above 192.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 194.73) holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.63; (P) 158.80; (R1) 159.55; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside, as fall from 166.67 is in progress for 155.14 support first. Firm break there will raise the chance that whole decline from 175.41 is resuming, and target 154.40 low next. On the upside, above 159.08 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8295; (P) 0.8314; (R1) 0.8325; More...

EUR/GBP dips notably today but stays above 0.8259 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected with 0.8446 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8259 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound. Decisive break of 0.8201 will indicate long term bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6200; (P) 1.6229; (R1) 1.6270; More...

Outlook in EUR/AUD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.6359 resistance will be the first sign of bullish reversal and target 1.6598 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 1.6125 minor support will bring retest of 1.5963 low.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 1.5996 key support level. Sustained break there will argue that whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is already reversing. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.6359 resistance, will keep medium term outlook neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9300; (P) 0.9313; (R1) 0.9333; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor with 0.9343 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.9269 minor support will bring retest of 0.9204/9 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.9343 will now be a sign of near term bullish reversal, and target 0.9444 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.9209 low will resumed long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9772 to 0.9209 from 0.9444 at 0.9096 next.

• EURUSD meets 1.0500 again
• Stochastic and RSI continue bearish moves

EURUSD failed to extend its bullish movement above the 1.0600 round number, which overlaps with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), raising the likelihood for further downside movements.

According to technical oscillators the upside momentum of the last ten days may come to an end. The stochastic oscillator posted a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the overbought territory, while the RSI is sloping south below the neutral threshold of 50.

If the price continues the selling interest, then the first support for traders to look for is the 1.0450 barricade. Even lower, the two-year low of 1.0330 may pause the bearish move; but if a lower low take place, then the market may visit November 2022 trough at 1.0220.

In the positive scenario, a climb above the 1.0600 obstacle could add some optimism for more bullish actions heading towards the 1.0665 bar and the 1.0800 round number, which coincides with the 50-day SMA.

To conclude, EURUSD has been in a bearish tendency since September 25, losing around 8%. The signs for upside correction are fading, especially as long as the price remains below 1.0600.