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Technical Outlook: USDJPY – Daily Cloud Base Holds For Now But Bears Look For Further Extension Lower

Extension of last Friday's strong post-US data fall on Monday failed to clearly break below daily cloud base (110.38) at the first attempt. The pair hit session low at 110.30, but bounced higher, on consolidation ahead of renewed attempts lower.

Bids in the zone above 110.00 support keep the downside protected for now, with extended upticks, attracted by daily cloud twist later this week, expected to provide selling opportunities, as overall structure remains firmly bearish.

Sustained break below daily cloud and violation of 110.00 support, below which large stops are parked, would trigger fresh acceleration lower.

Extended upticks are expected to stay capped under daily cloud top at 111.23.

Res: 110.72, 111.00, 111.23, 111.36
Sup: 110.38, 110.14, 110.00, 109.26

Technical Outlook: GBPUSD – Extended Consolidation Before Fresh Upside

Cable stands at the back foot in early Monday's trading and pressures initial support at 1.3100 after strong rally on Friday failed to regain last week's 1.3158 high (the heist since Sep 2016).

Deeper pullback signaled by bearish divergence on slow stochastic, as well as IMF report saying sterling is 15% overvalued.

Dips may test support at 1.3072 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2932/1.3158 upleg) and extend to 1.3050 (50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen / 10SMA) before broader bulls resume. Sustained break above 1.3158 to open round-figure barrier at 1.3200 and Fibo 138.2% projection at 1.3222.

Weekly close above 1.3109 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.5016/1.1930 fall) on Friday was a bullish signal for extension of recovery rally from post-Brexit lows at 1.2000 zone, where the base has been formed.

Res: 1.3134, 1.3158, 1.3200, 1.3222
Sup: 1.3100, 1.3072, 1.3050, 1.3018

Markets Calm Ahead Of Busy Week

  • Earnings, central banks and data galore this week;
  • EUR pops higher as unemployment falls to nine year low;
  • US data eyed as busy week gets off to a slow start.

It's been a moderately positive start to trading on Monday, with stocks in Europe squeezing out small gains which is lifting US futures ahead of the open on Wall Street.

There's going to be no shortage of catalysts this week with earnings season being accompanied by major central bank announcements and big economic data. Arguably the two most notable events will be the Bank of England decision and US jobs report, both of which will come later in the week, but there's still plenty to watch out for before then with this morning already seeing unemployment and inflation data from the eurozone and PMI data from China.

The euro was briefly boosted by the euro area data which again showed the economic recovery gaining traction as unemployment fell to its lowest level since February 2009 and core inflation creeping higher. While this will be music to the ears of policy makers at the ECB as they prepare for further reductions in asset purchases later this year, it's worth remembering the low base that the region is recovering from.

Unemployment at 9.1% is still extremely high and when you break that down by country, it becomes much higher again in some places. Core inflation is also only at 1.3% which is still well below the ECBs target and with the currency appreciating strongly this year, downward pressures here will continue to build. The central bank should therefore tread very carefully when it comes to removing stimulus, as I expect it will.

Today is a little quiet on the earnings front, with the likes of Apple and Pfizer not reporting until tomorrow. It's also quiet on the data side with pending home sales and the Chicago PMI the only numbers scheduled for release. We may therefore see traders positioning themselves ahead of the rest of the weeks major events today, with a bad jobs report on Friday delivering another blow to the possibility of another rate hike this year.

CRUDE OIL Monitoring Resistance At 50.28

Crude oil is trading higher Hourly support is given at 45.40 (24/07/2017 low). Strong resistance can be fouind at 50.28 (29/05/2017). Expected to show further consolidation before another leg higher.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be ound at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

SILVER Riding Bullish Channel

Silver is pushing higher after the bounce from hourly support given at 15.18 (10/07/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The commodity continues its short-term bullish increase.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

GOLD Riding Uptrend Channel

Gold continues to grow. Strong support is given at 1204 10/07/2017 high). Hourly resistance is given at 1271 (31/07/2017 high). Expected to show continued strengthening.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low)

BITCOIN Sideways Price Action.

Bitcoin's volatility has declined. Strong resistance can be found at 3000 (12/06/2017 high) and hourly support lies at 2403 (26/07/2017 low). Further retracement are expected. For the time being, the cryptocurrency keeps on trading between 2700 and 2800

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will consolidate above $1500. Long-term support is given at $1464 (04/05/2017 low).

EUR/CHF Consolidating Around 1.14

EUR/CHF's buying pressures are very important and is trading below 1.14. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0984 (13/07/2017 low). Road is wide-open for further strengthening.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low)

EUR/GBP Selling Pressures Are Weak

EUR/GBP is trading around its highest levels of the year. The pair is consolidating. Hourly support is given at a distance at 0.8742 (16/06/2017 low). Downside risks are nonetheless important.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

AUD/USD Stalling Below 0.8000.

AUD/USD's technical structure has finally not reversed. Hourly resistance is now given at 0.8066 (27/07/2017 high). Hourly support given at 0.7875 (21/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued upside pressures.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.