Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.09; (P) 112.77; (R1) 113.22; More...

Breach of 112.04 suggests that fall from 118.65 is resuming. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that this choppy decline is a correction. Hence, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 113.44 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2445; (P) 1.2491; (R1) 1.2526; More...

GBP/USD continues to be bounded in range below 1.2705 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. Hence, in case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2411 minor support will argue that rise from 1.1986 is completed and turn bias to the downside for 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9889; (P) 0.9935; (R1) 0.9966; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF will remain neutral for the moment as the consolidation pattern from 0.9860 extends. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0043 resistance and bring another decline. Current fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0327. Below 0.9860 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. On the upside, break of 1.0043 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still expecting the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359, after the consolidation completes.

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Monday February 6: Five things the markets are talking about

Last weeks market data capped a week that saw monetary policy makers in Japan, the U.K. and the U.S stand pat, at least until they can truly assess the impact of Trumponomics on global growth.

The odds for a Fed March rate hike have dropped after Friday's U.S jobs report showed weak wage growth even as hiring picked up – investors continue to expect a "gradual" approach to tightening.

For this week, on the economic data front, pales in comparison to last week. In Australasia, there are three central bank announcements – Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this evening (10:30 EST), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In Europe, there is merchandise trade and industrial production.

Stateside, Tuesday's JOLTS openings and U.S trade report take center stage, while Friday's consumer sentiment is expected to remain steady at post-election highs.

Note: A number of Fed speakers are expected to offer commentary on last weeks FOMC meeting.

North of the border, Canada will post its own merchandise trade balance, housing starts and its all-important jobs report on Friday (08:30 EST).

1. Global equities rally on Trump deregulation orders

Japan's Nikkei rallied overnight as financial stocks climbed following measures ordered by President Trump to reduce regulation in the financial sector, although a slightly stronger yen kept gains limited. The Nikkei rose +0.3%.

Even Hong Kong stocks happened to snap their four-day losing streak on mainland demand. The benchmark Hang Seng index added +1.0%. Financial, telecommunication, and consumer goods sectors were among their best performers.

In China, equity gains have been hampered by last week's People's Bank of China (PBoC) tightening. The Shanghai Composite Index gained +0.5%.

In Europe, equity indices are trading mixed, but generally higher. Major banking stocks are trading mixed in the Eurostoxx, while commodity and mining stocks are leading the gains in the FTSE 100.

U.S equities are set to open in the 'black' (+0.1%).

Indices: Stoxx50 flat at 3,278, FTSE +0.2% at 7,205, DAX flat at 11,656, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,838, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9,470, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 19,053, SMI +0.2% at 8,370, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%

2. Oil finds firmer footing from dollar exploits

Oil prices are on the rise as investors shift money into crude futures as the dollar weakens, and over concerns that new U.S. sanctions against Iran could be extended to affect crude supplies.

However, intraday prices should be capped by growing U.S. production as well as worries that import demand in China could slow.

Brent crude futures are trading at +$56.96 per barrel, up +15c from their Friday's close, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures are up +18c at +$54.01 a barrel.

Note: Data last week showed that investors have raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Jan. 31 to a record +412,380 lots.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold has surpassed the strong resistance zone of $1,219-21. The metal on Friday erased losses as the "big" dollar came under pressure from a payrolls report that flagged up weak wage growth in January, weakening the case for near-term interest rate hikes.

3. Sovereign yields remain rangebound

Investors are still nervous about the BoJ's policy stance to keep a lid on the recent rise in domestic yields. Trading yen recently has been relatively volatile due to some of the wild yield moves on 10-year JGB's. However, since the BoJ's signal last week that it plans to buy more than +$6B worth of Japanese debt product with 5- to 10-year maturities, the market's concerns have receded. But, another gain in benchmark yields is expected to rattle investors. Currently, 10-year yield is trading flat overnight at +0.095%.

Note: Trump and Japanese PM Abe are to meet later this week (February 10). The U.S. president has accused Japan's carmakers of engaging in "unfair trade" practices and suggested he favours a weaker dollar.

Elsewhere, The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading atop of +2.44%. The yield on the 10-year U.K. gilt has dropped to +1.374% from +1.460% before the BoE decision last week, while the yield on the 10-year German bund has declined to +0.420%.

4. "Big" dollar is confined to tight ranges

The USD remains range bound outright against the majors as the market continues to digest Friday's U.S jobs report. The non-farm payroll (NFP) headline figure showed a greater-than-expected rise in job growth (+227k. However, the unemployment rate edged up (+4.8%), while the m/m wage growth (+0.12%) was disappointing.

In Japan, Abenomics received another boost to its credibility after Japan's overall 2016 real average monthly wages rose by +0.7% for its first rise in five- years and biggest increase since 2010. Currently, ¥112 remains key support for the USD/JPY pair (¥112.61).

The EUR/USD continues to hover around the mid-€1.07 area as the market awaits ECB's Draghi's testimony at the European Parliament for clues on the outlook for the central bank's stimulus program.

Nevertheless, the 'single' unit remains vulnerable to selling due to eurozone's political concerns – dwindling support for the French candidate Fillon in polls could weigh on EUR.

Elsewhere, INR has strengthened to a three-month high outright (INR67.19) as investors are again willing to take risks in EM.

Note: Foreign investors have invested about +$347m in India's debt market so far this month, almost already erasing January's -$512m net outflow.

5. Germany's order data improves, Aussie retail disappoints

Euro data this morning shows that Germany's December manufacturing orders posted their strongest monthly gain in over two-years (+5.2% vs. +0.8% e), led by big-ticket orders for capital goods.

Against the background of Brexit and Trump, the data suggests that the German industry could shift into a higher gear for H1 2017.

The increase was led by domestic demand and a sharp increase in orders from the rest of the eurozone.

Down under and ahead of this evening's RBA decision, where expectations are largely for a rate hold, Aussie retail sales was disappointing, registering the first decline in over a year (-0.1% – first m/m decline since Aug 2015 vs. +0.3% e).

USD/JPY is showing little movement at the start of the week. Currently, the pair is trading at 112.50. On the release front, Japanese Average Cash Earnings edged lower to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.4%. In the US, there are no major events on the calendar. On Tuesday, the US releases JOLTS Job Openings, with the indicator expected to rise to 5.56 million.

On Friday, US job numbers were mixed. Nonfarm payrolls jumped to 227 thousand, well above the estimate of 170 thousand. However, wage growth disappointed, as Average Hourly Earnings slipped to 0.1%, short of the forecast of 0.3%. There's no arguing that the US economy is performing well, but there is a sense of uneasiness in the markets as Donald Trump continues to create controversy and dissent both at home and abroad. Trump has picked a fight with Mexico and his travel ban on Moslems from seven countries has created a strong backlash. Moreover, the lack of an economic policy is a major source of concern and the the post-election euphoria which sent the markets higher appears to have dissipated. The Federal Reserve is no less in the dark than the rest of us, and is expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the coming months. If the economy continues to grow, there is a strong likelihood of another rate hike in the first half of 2017, which is bullish for the dollar.

Just a couple of weeks into his presidency, President Donald Trump has not hesitated to spat with US trading partners. Last week it was the turn of Japan, as Trump accused Japan of currency devaluation in order to gain an unfair trade advantage from a weaker yen. Japan flatly denied the claim of currency manipulation, saying that Japan's monetary policy was aimed at curbing deflation and not lowering the value of the yen. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet in Washington on February 10, and it's a sure thing that currency policy will be high up the list on the agenda of the meeting. The BoJ sent off its own warning about currency manipulation when the dollar pushed above the 120 level, but BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kurodo recently stated that the bank does not have a target for the currency. It's a safe bet that we haven't seen the last of the war of words between the US and Japan with regard to currency policy.

EUR/USD has edged lower in the Monday session, as the pair trades at 1.0740. On the release front, it's a quiet start to the week, with no major events in the US or Europe. German Factory Orders sparkled in December, with a gain of 5.2%, compared to the forecast of 0.6%. Eurozone Retail PMI dipped to 50.1 points, while Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to 17.4 points, above the estimate of 16.7 points. In the US, there are two minor events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US releases JOLTS Job Openings, with the indicator expected to rise to 5.56 million.

German numbers were a mixed bag last week, but manufacturing numbers remain strong. On Monday, Factory Orders sparkled with a gain of 5.2%. This follows German Manufacturing PMI, which improved to 56.4, its strongest reading in three years. We'll get a look at Industrial Production on Tuesday. Meanwhile, inflation has headed higher in the Eurozone, buoyed by stronger economic growth and higher oil prices. This is positive news for the ECB, which has long tried to raise inflation with an ultra-loose monetary policy. Still, inflation levels remain well below the ECB's target of 2 percent, and analysts are not expecting any drastic changes in monetary policy in 2o17.

On Friday, US job numbers were mixed. Nonfarm payrolls jumped to 227 thousand, well above the estimate of 170 thousand. However, wage growth disappointed, as Average Hourly Earnings slipped to 0.1%, short of the forecast of 0.3%. There's no arguing that the US economy is performing well, but there is a sense of uneasiness in the markets as Donald Trump continues to create controversy and dissent both at home and abroad. Trump has picked a fight with Mexico and his travel ban on Moslems from seven countries has created a strong backlash. Moreover, the lack of an economic policy is a major source of concern and the the post-election euphoria which sent the markets higher appears to have dissipated. The Federal Reserve is no less in the dark than the rest of us, and is expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the coming months. If the economy continues to grow, there is a strong likelihood of another rate hike in the first half of 2017, which is bullish for the dollar. On the other hand, if Trump makes good on his promises to “make America first” and implement protectionist policies, the greenback could lose ground against major currencies such as the euro.

EUR/USD

Current level - 10750

The intraday outlook is bearish below 1.0800 minor resistance, for another dip to 1.0690 before bouncing higher towards 1.0870 hurdle.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 112.68

My outlook here is negative, for a break through 112.00 area, towards 111.40, en route to 109.80 zone. Key resistance lies at 113.50.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2478

The downtrend is intact, for a tight test of 1.2415 support area, before reversal and rise towards 1.2610 zone. Crucial intraday resistance lies at 1.2535.

Market quiet in post nonfarm payroll price action

Notes/Observations

Germany Dec Factory Orders register biggest monthly advance since July 2014 (5.2% v 0.7%e)

Weekend/Overnight:

Asia:

China Jan Caixin PMI Services saw its 1st sequential decline in 4 months ( 53.1 v 53.4 prior)

Australia Dec Retail Sales registered its 1st MoM decline since Aug 2015 (-0.1% v +0.3%e)

Japan Overall 2016 Real average monthly wages rose by 0.7% for its 1st rise in 5 years and biggest increase since 2010

Radiation at Fukushima plant hits 5-year high. The Japanese nuclear plant has recorded the highest radiation level since the 2011 earthquake

Europe:

Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Euro exchange rate is too low for German economy's competitive position

Germany Econ Min Gabriel: Europe must not be divided further; need to give Italy, France and Portugal enough time to reduce their deficits as they enact structural reforms

UK Conservative MP Carmichael: Could be faced with prospect of leaving EU by ‘falling off a cliff' (**Note: Comments from Carmichael viewed as a headwind on PM May's Brexit plan as member of her party 'criticized her strategy ahead of a mid-week vote on plan following debate)

France's far-right party presented its Presidential Election Manifesto which vowed to fight globalization. Election to be followed by 6 months of talks with EU to regain 4 sovereign ties (monetary, legal, territorial and economic) and then hold referendum afterwards. Would aim to leave euro and re denominate French debt stock into new currency

New BoE Governor to replace Minouche Shafik will be announced this week by Treasury

Fitch affirmed Portugal sovereign rating at BB+; outlook Stable

Fitch affirmed Austria sovereign rating at AA+; outlook Stable

Americas:

More than 100K visas had been revoked due to Trump administration travel restrictions order on 7 Muslim-majority countries

US Federal Judge in Seattle granted temporary nationwide restraining order on immigration ban (acting on requests from Washington/Minnesota states). Banned 90-day entry suspension of individuals from seven countries

Homeland Security official: Will comply with federal court ruling; have "suspended any and all actions" related to implementing President Trump's immigration ban on 7 Muslim-majority countries

Fed's Williams (moderate, non-voter): March rate hike was on the table, decision remained data-dependent; all FOMC meetings were live

Economic Data

(DE) Germany Dec Factory Orders M/M: 5.2% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 4.2%e (biggest monthly advance since July 2014)

(NO) Norway Dec Industrial Production M/M: -2.7 v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v +1.3% prior

(NO) Norway Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -4.2% prior

(DE) Germany Jan Construction PMI: 52.0 v 54.9 prior

(EU) Euro Zone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence: 17.4 v 16.8e

Fixed Income Issuance:

None seen

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Index snapshot (as of 10:00 GMT)

Indices [Stoxx50 flat at 3,278, FTSE +0.2% at 7,205, DAX flat at 11,656, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,838, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9,470, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 19,053, SMI +0.2% at 8,370, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading mixed but generally higher after a positive end to the Asian session; the major banking stocks trading mixed in the Eurostoxx with shares of BNP Paribas, BBVA and Intesa Sanpaolo trading higher, with shares of Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander trading lower; Commodity and mining stocks leading the gains in the FTSE 100 as copper trades higher intraday; homebuilder stocks trading sharply lower in the index, with the major high street retailers Dixons Carphone and Marks & Spencer the notable laggards.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include Boardwalk Pipeline, CBOE Holdings, CNA Financial, Diamond Offshore, Fidelity & Guaranty, Haemonetics, Hasbro, Loews Corp, Mercury General, Newell Brands, Sysco Corp, and Tyson Foods.

Equities (as of 09:50 GMT)

Consumer Discretionary: [Capita CPI.UK +1.1% (staff arrested), Ryanair RYA.UK -1.6% (Q3 results)]

Healthcare: [Ablynx ABLX.BE +1.7% (Submits MAA to the EMA for approval of caplacizumab), Genmab GEN.DK +1.4% (raises FY16 outlook), Innate Pharma IPH.FR -20.2% (top line results from EffiKIR trial)]

Industrials: [Hexagon HEXAB.SE -2.4% (cost savings program, Q4 results, new Chairman), Norwegian Air NAS.NO -2.4% (Jan metrics)]

Technology: [DKSH Holding DKSH.CH +7.8% (FY16 results)]

Telecom: [TDC TDC.DK -0.3% (divests subsidiary TDC Hosting, trims outlook), Telecom Italia TIT.IT +3.4% (Q4 results)]

Speakers

SNB's Maechler reiterated the view that CHF currency (Swiss franc) was overvalued, especially against euro. If interest rates were not negative, franc would be stronger. Expected Swiss job market to improv

German Ifo institute: Gauges for business climate, current assessment and expectations improved in 1Q as euro-area recovery gains momentum

Brazil Fin Min Meirelles noted that a single digit interest rate was depended on inflation slowdown

Russia Dep Foreign Min Ryabkov: Recent Iran missile launch did not violate sanctions agreement. Did not agree with Trump's assessment that Iran was a terrorist State

China said to target Urban Unemployment Rate to be below 5% in period through 2020 (**Note: 2016 urban unemployment rate 4.02%)

Currencies

USD remained in recent ranges against the majors as dealers continue to digest the Friday's jobs report. The headline figure of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for January showed a greater-than-expected rise in job growth, the unemployment rate edged up and wage growth was disappointing

The 112 area remained key support for the USD/JPY pair. Abenomics received another boost to its credibility after Japan's Overall 2016 Real average monthly wages rose by 0.7% for its 1st rise in 5 years and biggest increase since 2010

EUR/USD hovered around the mid-1.07 area as dealers awaited ECB's Draghi's testimony at the European Parliament for clues on the outlook for the central bank's stimulus program.

Precious Metals- Gold and Silver benefited from technical buying. Copper prices continued its surge as hedge funds made record bets amid supply threats were back in focus

Commodities

Oil – Both WTI and Brent crude oil traded initially higher on a weaker US dollar and concerns that new US sanctions on Iran may affect crude supplies. Metals- Gold and Silver benefited from technical buying. Copper prices continue surge as hedge funds make record bets amid supply threats come back in focus.

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 162.78 up 27 ticks in quieter trade, continuing momentum higher after Friday's US Non Farm Payroll report. Having traded a high of 162.90 further continuation sees 163.01 followed by 163.38. A reversal lower sees support remaining at 161.96, 161.49 then 161.19 followed by 160.80.

Gilt futures trade at 124.65 up 12 ticks reversing earlier losses, despite a rebound in Equities as the Yield curve flattens slightly. Support moves to 124.08 followed by 123.58 , 123.17 with Dec low at 122.08 the eventual target. Resistance lies just above highs at 124.73 followed by 125.19. Short Sterling futures trade flat to 2bp higher with Jun17Jun18 continuing to flatten trading at 21/22bp.

Monday's liquidity report showed Friday's excess liquidity rose to €1.318T up €7B from €1.311T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €171M from €107M prior.

Corporate issuance saw the week ended with $43.3B via 31 tranches, with volume YTD standing at $187.9B. Euro denominated issuance saw €16.7B come to market led by financial firms, with Bank of America's 3 part deal accounting for over half this weeks volume.

Looking Ahead

(IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Jan Minutes

05:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey

05:30 (EU) ECB's Smets (Belgium) with Bank of International Settlements(BIS) Caruana at Conference in

05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €2.0B in 6-month Bubills

05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills

05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bills - 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds

06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity (Monthly GDP) M/M: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.8% prior

06:30 (TR) Turkey Jan Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): No est v 92.16 prior

06:30 (EU) EU's Juncker with France PM Cazeneuve in Brussels

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing - 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)

08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming actions in week

08:20 (BR) Brazil Jan Vehicle Production: No est v 200.9K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 204.3K prior, Vehicle Exports: No est v 62.9K prior

08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €6.1-7.3B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills

09:30 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases

09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender

09:50 (UK) Bank of England Bond Buying Operation (APF Gilt purchase operation between 3-7 years)

10:00 (FR) France Presidential Candidate Fillon

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

16:30 (US Fed's Harker (hawk, voter) speaks about Payment Systems in San Diego

News and Events:

Strong NFP failed to boost USD

Most FX crosses traded sideways on Monday as investors started the week on the back foot amid disappointing data from the world’s largest economy. Even if the NFPs printed substantially stronger than expected, with the US economy creating 227k job during the first month of the year versus 180k median forecast, the weak wage growth figures cast a shadow on the inflationary outlook and the narrative of a faster recovery. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%m/m in January (0.3% median forecast), while the previous month reading was downwardly revised to 0.2% from 0.4% first estimate. The data suggests a slower path of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve as the low unemployment rate, according to official data, failed to translate into salary growth which would, in the end, give a boost to inflation. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8%, slightly higher than the previous reading and the median forecast of 4.7%, as the participation rate climbed to 62.9% from 62.7%. Similarly, the underemployment rate accelerated to 9.4% in January from 9.2% previously.

December durable goods orders were revised to the downside to -0.5%m/m versus 0.4% first estimate. Excluding transportation, the gauge advanced 0.5% and matched consensus, signalling that the underlying trend in new orders remains solid as US businesses expect the Trump administration to help the manufacturing sector get back on a growth path. On the PMIS side, the Markit gauges came in roughly in line with expectations, while factory orders rose 1.3%m/m versus 0.5% median forecast and -2.3% the previous month.

All in all, we expect the greenback to remain subject to substantial downside, especially due to the emergence of a strong political resistance against some of Donald Trump’s executive orders. Indeed, this lack of broad support along the political forces is a bad omen for the US outlook as it may prove difficult for Trump to pass any key bills that might boost the economy.

SNB total sight deposits increase again

Sight deposits were expected this morning and the release has shown an increase in total sight deposits to CHF 535.2 billion from CHF 532.8billion. We believe that the demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven remains significant. For the time being, the Helvetic currency is strong and the EURCHF pair lies stalls below 1.0700.

We consider that FX intervention from the SNB is clearly on and should not diminish over the next few months with the elections coming up in France and Germany.

Regarding the economic outlook, swiss fundamental data show that the situation improved. Exports surged in December by 9.9% m/m and inflation is now flat on an annualized basis while it was negative not so long ago.

Nonetheless, the strength of the dollar against the franc has cooled over the last few weeks as Trump mentioned that the dollar may be too strong. A weaker franc against the dollar was a good to trigger further weakness against the euro but it now seems that the trend has reversed and the dollar is weakening, driving the CHF higher.

This year, we consider that the SNB should remain on the edge and willing to intervene. Chairman Thomas Jordan said this weekend in an interview in a German newspaper that the interest rates should remain low in order to keep the differential between major currencies and the franc.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

• Dec Industrial Production MoM, last 0,50%, rev 0,70% NOK / 07:00
• Dec Industrial Production WDA YoY, last 1,30% NOK / 07:00
• Dec Ind Prod Manufacturing MoM, exp 0,30%, last -0,10% NOK / 07:00
• Dec Ind Prod Manufacturing WDA YoY, last -4,20% NOK / 07:00
• Jan New Car Registrations YoY, last -1,10% GBP / 09:00
• 03.févr. Total Sight Deposits CHF, last 5,33E+11 CHF / 09:00
• 03.févr. Domestic Sight Deposits CHF, last 4,67E+11 CHF / 09:00
• Jan Markit Eurozone Retail PMI, last 50,4 EUR / 09:10
• Feb Sentix Investor Confidence, exp 16,8, last 18,2 EUR / 09:30
• 03.févr. Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, last 56,1 CAD / 15:00
• Jan AiG Perf of Construction Index, last 47 AUD / 22:30
• 05.févr. ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index, last 118,1 AUD / 22:30

The Risk Today:

EUR/USD's momentum has increased sharply. It seems that strong hourly resistance area is given around 1.0800. Hourly support lies at 1.0590 (19/01/2016 low) and 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low). Expected to see continued consolidation. In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD is still trading below resistance given at 1.2771 (05/10/2016 high). The pair keeps on bouncing lower. The technical structure is still anyway showing positive potential. Hourly support is given around 1.2450 (recent lows). Expected to show further bullish move. The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY's slowly weakening. Hourly resistance is given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). The technical structure suggests further downside momentum. as the break of hourly support given at 112.57 (17/01/2017 low) has confirmed bearish pressures. We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF's momentum is definitely bearish. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Closer resistance is given at 0.9935 (03/02/2016 high). The road is clearly wide-open for further decline. In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

Last week we talked a lot about EURGBP, which has a very good looking structure up from January low. We see an A-B-C- bounce in wave 2) that is approaching resistance area at 0.8650-0.8670, which is not far away so be aware of a bearish reversal in the very near future. Ideally market will fall sharply from there with an impulsive manner.

EURGBP, 1H