'What Trump does is beyond our expectations and people are kind of playing it safe by holding gold positions and waiting to see what happens in other markets.' – Yuichi Ikemizu, Standard Bank (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

After reaching the 1,215 mark during Tuesday's trading session, the yellow metal began a retreat, which continued to last into Wednesday's trading. From a technical perspective, the yellow metal has no support until the level of 1,196.86 on the daily chart. Due to that and the fact that it previously attempted to break through the weekly R1 at 1,213.16 more than once before the retreat, it can be assumed that the bullion is set to lose value by the end of the day, in the process retreating to the weekly PP.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders have become slightly bullish, as 52% of trader open positions are long on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 63% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

The Aussie regained traction and tested 0.7600 barrier on yesterday's bullish acceleration.

Repeated downside rejections above key 200SMA support and subsequent bounce sidelined immediate downside risk.

However, the pair remains without clear direction while holding within 0.7510/0.7690 range.

Near-term studies improved and along with bullish daily technicals, turned near-term focus higher.

Firm break above 0.7600 zone is needed to signal bullish continuation and open immediate target at 0.7630 (Fibo 76.4% of 0.7776/0.7158 descend).

Long bullish monthly candle that was formed in January, supports bullish scenario, with freshly formed 20/200SMA's Golden Cross, underpinning the action.

Res: 0.7607, 0.7630, 0.7700, 0.7776
Sup: 0.7558, 0.7510, 0.7497, 0.7467

Probe below strong supports at 112.50 base on yesterday’s acceleration lower was so far seen as false break.

Quick recovery that closed above 112.50 trigger and subsequent extension to 113.60 sidelined immediate downside risk.

However, daily techs remain in strong bearish setup and maintain risk for fresh attempts lower.

Falling daily Tenkan-sen marks initial barrier at 113.72 and stays intact for now, with extended upticks seen towards 114.10 (Fibo 61.8% of 115.36/112.06 downleg).

Renewed attack at 112.50 base and 112.00 zone (yesterday’s low / Fibo 38.2% of 101.17/118.65 ascend) require clear break lower to resume bear-leg from 118.65/59 double-top and expose psychological 110.00 support.

Conversely, sustained lift above 114.56 (Fibo 38.2% of 118.59/112.06 downleg) would turn near-term focus higher and increase risk of retesting key barriers at 115.33 (daily Kijun-sen) and 116.02 (daily cloud top).

Res: 113.60, 113.72, 114.10, 114.58
Sup: 113.07, 112.62, 112.50, 111.97

Yesterday's strong bounce from significant support at 1.2409 that returned near the upper pivot at 1.2600 zone, has sidelined growing downside risk. Long-body and long-tailed daily candle that was formed yesterday, underpins fresh recovery which requires firm break above 1.2600 resistance zone to generate fresh bullish signal for extension towards key n/t barrier at 1.2671 (26 Jan peak). Daily studies in firm bullish setup support scenario. Rising daily Tenkan-sen marks strong support at 1.2465 which is expected to contain corrective dips. Daily cloud that twisted today and is thickening (currently spanned between 1.2419 and 1.2426), along with 1.2409 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1986/1.2671, reinforced by 55SMA), mark breakpoints, loss of which would bring bears back to play.

Res: 1.2589, 1.2603, 1.2671, 1.2726
Sup: 1.2541, 1.2510, 1.2465, 1.2426

The Euro peaked above 1.0800 barrier on yesterday's strong rally and hit the highest levels since early Dec. Eventual close above former top at 1.0773 was bullish signal for final stretch towards next layers of strong resistances at 1.0818/24 (50% retracement of 1.1298/1.0339/daily Ichimoku cloud top). Sustained break here is needed to reinforce bullish stance for extension of bull-leg from 1.0339 (03 Jan low) towards 1.0872 (08 Dec high), possibly to 1.0931 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1298/1.0339). Falling 100SMA capped rally for now (currently at 1.0796), but overall bullish setup of daily studies remains supportive for further upside. Corrective dips on overbought near-term studies should be ideally contained above rising daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 1.0715) also 50% of 1.0618/1.0810, 30/31 Jan upleg). Firm break below 1.0700 zone would weaken the structure and increase downside risk. Fed policy meeting results are in focus today.

Res: 1.0810, 1.0824, 1.0872, 1.0900
Sup: 1.0773, 1.0737, 1.0715, 1.0690

EUR/USD

Current level - 10778

The breakthrough the crucial 1.0740 signals a positive bias, for a rise towards 1.0870 resistance zone. Initial intraday support lies at 1.0770, followed by 1.0740.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 113.30

My outlook here is negative, for another slide towards 111.40 support zone. Crucial on the upside is 114.00 hurdle.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2553

Yesterday's failure at 1.2415 signals a reversal and the outlook is bullish, for a rise towards 1.2670, en route to 1.2770. Key support lies at 1.2515.

On the 4h EUR/USD chart we are tracking a corrective bounce from December lows, labeled as an expanded flat correction. It's a contra-trend movement in three waves which can still be in the making, as recent overnight rally suggests that wave C of 4) is still incomplete. That said we see a potential turning point around the 161.8 Fibonacci ratio, where bulls can slow down and bears take over control.

EURUSD, 4H

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.70; (P) 141.58; (R1) 142.73; More...

Despite breaching 140.74 minor support briefly, GBP/JPY quickly rebounded . Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment first. On the upside, above 144.77 will extend the rise from 136.44 to 148.42 resistance next. Break there will resume whole rise from 122.46 and target 150.42 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, below 140.43 minors support will turn bias to the downside to extend the pattern from 148.42 with another falling leg, possibly through 136.44.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern even. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Though, sustained break will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.10; (P) 121.68; (R1) 122.34; More...

EUR/JPY continues to engage in choppy sideway trading below 124.08 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Another fall cannot be ruled out as the consolidation extends. On the downside, below 120.54 will target 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). In that case, we'd expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 124.08 will extend the larger rally from 109.20 to 126.09 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4158; (P) 1.4204; (R1) 1.4277; More...

EUR/AUD's recover from 1.4025 resumed by taking out 1.4274 resistance. But upside momentum is weak so far. Hence, we'd still view it as a correction. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 1.4322. On the downside, break of 1.4093 minor support will suggest that such correction is finished and turn bias back to the downside. Break of 1.4025 will resume the larger fall from 1.6587 to key support level at 1.3671. We'd expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

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