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Aussie dollar remains under pressure and eventually probes through a cluster of supports between 0.7529/06 (200 / 55 / 100 SMA's and Fibo 38.2% of 0.7158/0.7739 rally).

Today's fresh bearish acceleration today extends the second leg (commenced from 0.7630) of pullback from 0.7739 (23 Feb high).

Strong bearish signals are generating, with daily close below 0.7500 handle required to confirm scenario. Penetration of 0.7471 (daily cloud top) would open next targets at 0.7448 (50% retracement) and 0.7426 (daily cloud base).

Falling 10SMA marks strong resistance at 0.7602.

Res: 0.7529, 0.7570, 0.7602, 0.7630
Sup: 0.7500, 0.7471, 0.7448, 0.7426

Cable entered near-term consolidation phase above 1.2155 target (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1986/1.2704 rally) which was cracked on Wednesday. The pair hit new seven-week low at 1.2137, but failed to confirm break on close below 1.2155.

This is seen as key near-term point, break of which would open way towards key short-term support at 1.1986 (16 Jan low).

Firmly bearish technical studies favor further weakness, with initial offers standing just above 1.2200 barrier (yesterday's high), while lower platform at 1.2300 (reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen) marks strong resistance and the upper breakpoint.

Res: 1.2212, 1.2250, 1.2300, 1.2345
Sup: 1.2155, 1.2137, 1.2100, 1.2035

EUR/JPY - 121.42

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Sideways

Original strategy:

Buy at 119.65, Target: 121.35, Stop: 119.05

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 120.95, Target: 122.55, Stop: 120.35

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 120.02 yesterday, adding credence to our bullishness and signal the rise from 118.24 low is still in progress for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 122.00 and possibly towards 122.50 but overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter well below resistance at 122.52, bring another decline later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips but at a higher level as 120.90-00 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 120.45-50 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness to said support at 120.02 but break there is needed to provide confirmation and suggest the rise from 118.24 has ended.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

The pair is attempting again through 114.73 (03 / 08 Mar highs) after yesterday's rally was rejected here.

Fresh bullish acceleration emerges above daily cloud which twisted today and seen supportive for further upside.

Bulls eye immediate target at 115.08 (50% of 118.59/111.57 descend), break of which would open 115.36 and 115.60 (high of 27 / 19 Jan respectively) and unlock strong barrier at 115.91 (Fibo 61.8% of 118.59/111.57).

Multiple bull-crosses (10/30 and 10/20 SMA's, as well as daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bull-cross) underpin, with close above widening daily cloud needed to confirm scenario.

Session low at 114.27 marks initial support, ahead of former pivotal barriers at 114.10 zone, with key near-term support at 113.56 (higher base).

Res: 115.09, 115.36, 115.60, 115.91
Sup: 114.27, 114.10, 113.56, 113.28

The Euro holds weak tone and extends bear-leg from 1.0638 (06 Mar high), to crack double-Fibonacci support at 1.0525/28 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0339/1.0827 and Fibo 76.4% of 1.0493/1.0638).

Close below the latter is needed to confirm strong bearish stance that extends into fourth consecutive day and opens way towards key near-term support at 1.0493 (daily higher base).

Strong bearish tone on daily studies supports bears for full-retracement of 1.0493/1.0638 upleg and further weakness towards next target at 1.0454 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.0339/1.0827) on break.

Broken daily Tenkan-sen (currently in sideways mode at 1.0566) should ideally cap corrective upticks, as thickening daily cloud (1.0605/1.0653) continues to weigh).

ECB is expected to keep monetary policy on hold on today's meeting, despite economic growth and inflation are picking up, as the central bank remains cautious ahead of high risk elections in Netherlands and France.

Res: 1.0546, 1.0566, 1.0579, 1.0605
Sup: 1.0524, 1.0493, 1.0454, 1.0388

'Thanks to the strongest increase in private payrolls since April 2014, the U.S. dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies.' - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management (investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

On Thursday morning the common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate passed another notable level of support. The currency pair had dropped below the weekly S1, which is located at 1.0533 level and stopped the pair's fall during Wednesday's trading session. It is likely that the rate will fall to the lower Bollinger band, which was located at 1.0508 on Thursday morning. However, below that the closest cluster of support begins at 1.0446, where the weekly S2 is located at.

Traders' Sentiment

For the fourth consecutive trading session SWFX traders remain neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long. In addition, trader set up orders are identical, as 51% of orders are set to buy the Euro.

'Rising US yields continue to push spreads over gilts towards 2016 lows and will likely drive GBP/USD towards 1.20, if not 1.1850, even though broader range trading is likely to remain.' – Westpac (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

Wednesday was another negative day for the British currency, being that it edged lower against the Buck again. This time the 1.22 threshold has been crossed, meaning the Cable is one step closer to reaching the 1.1947 level—the lowest in more than ten years. Even though the lower Bollinger band and the monthly S2 now represent immediate support around 1.2130, this area is unlikely to hold the GBP/USD pair afloat for long, namely it is expected to remain intact only today. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain unchanged, with the weekly signals still bearish.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders keep getting more bullish towards the Sterling, as now 65% of all open positions are long, compared to 61% on Monday. The portion of buy orders is also relatively large, taking up 61% of the market.

'Historically the dollar hasn't fared well against reserve currencies like the euro or yen or the pound during times of U.S.-led protectionism.' – Toronto-Dominion Bank (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

A positive reading of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change provided the US Dollar with a boost yesterday, allowing it to put the tough resistance around 114.60 to the test. Ultimately, the Buck closed with a 40-pip rally against the Yen, meaning that the ascending channel's resistance line remains intact. From the technical perspective the US Dollar should now undergo a bearish correction, with traders taking profit of the recent rallies; however, technical indicators suggest otherwise. Due to lack of strong market movers today, another positive development is possible, but with gains limited circa 114.75. The base case scenario is still the integrity of the channel's resistance line.

Traders' Sentiment

Today 55% of traders hold long positions (previously 60%), while 67% of all pending orders are to purchase the Greenback (up from 57%).

'If the (nonfarm payroll) data does come in better than market expectations, it will drag gold prices further.' - Barnabas Gan, OCBC (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the yellow metal's price slipped even further lower, as the price reached below the 1,205 level. However, the bullion managed to find support in a speculative and before the recent moves unconfirmed long term lower trend line of a large scale ascending channel pattern. Due to that reason traders should look at whether a proper rebound occurs, as from the upside there is a strong resistance cluster, which could keep the commodity price lower in the future sessions.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders are neutral at the moment, as 50% of open positions are long. Although, 65% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion, and such a high level has not been seen for more than two months.

The AUD is testing an important support zone today as one by one; its foundations get eroded.

Last nights U.S ADP Employment Change was a monster number, adding 298,000 jobs against an expected number of 185,000. Such a huge overshoot has seen economists and analysts scrambling to revise tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) up from 190,000 consensus. For those that have been on Mars the last couple of weeks, the NFP is the last stone in the wall needed to all but confirm the Federal Reserve hikes at next week's FOMC.

The street had not priced this in at all as of even seven days ago and had been scrambling to play catch-up ever since. This has manifested itself as a stronger USD, lower precious metals and as of last night some meaningful rises in U.S. bond yields. With the unemployment rate also expected to come in at 4.7% tomorrow night as well, I would suggest that the Federal Reserve is well and truly on their path to three rates hikes this year as reported, perhaps even four. Something we feel is still not priced in by the market.

Apart from gold and silver, down -0.70% and -1.50% respectively, platinum and copper also fell heavily as did corn and wheat, the latter by -2.0%. Like its little Kiwi brother, it looks like the Australian Dollar (Aud) is finally feeling the effects. As yields rise in the U.S. so does the appeal of Aud yields fade. Australia is a major exporter of most of the commodities above, especially copper and wheat. This further sapped the lucky country. A neutral RBA earlier in the week, a lower growth China are the final pieces of the puzzle.

Aud fell from 7610 in New York trading to around 7525 and in Asia has continued lower to 7510. Looking at the chart below, we can see that the 7515/35 region is an important support level, containing the 55, 100 and 200-day moving averages (DMA) ahead of support at 7490. From a technical perspective, a close below the moving averages is bearish.

However, some caution could be warranted as the 7490 level has not broken yet. A look at the chart below shows that Aud has been down to the 7520 area a number of times since early January, only to break bears hearts by rallying after that. A break of 7490 could open further losses from a technical point of view, with very little support until 7450 and 7380, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the December low to the February high.

It is also important to note that Aud only closed below the 200-dma, not the 55 and 100 on a day basis, although intra-day in Asia, we are trading lower.

Resistance is at the aforementioned 7515/35 area, and then 7605.

Overall, although the technical picture looks potentially quite bearish, Aud's ability to rally from this level previously, means traders may wish to see a confirmed break on a daily basis if they are bearish.