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Further rise is in favor in GBP/USD with 1.3473 minor support intact. Rise from 1.3139 would target 100% projection of 1.3139 to 1.3557 from 1.3272 at 1.3690. However, firm break of 1.3473 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral as sideway trading continues. With 0.8029 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, firm break of 0.8205 will extend the rise from 0.7603 to 161.8% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8469. However, decisive break of 0.8029 will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 0.7921).

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213. Decisive break will argue that USD/CHF is reversing the medium term trend, and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8213 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.7603 at a later stage.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 0.6864 is in progress and should target 161.8% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921 at 0.7183. On the downside, below 0.7078 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a correction to rise from 0.5913 only. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside. Fall from 1.4247 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3773. On the upside, above 1.3906 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rejection below 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290 suggests that the pattern from 1.4791 medium term is still extending. Firm break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3883) will solidify this case, and bring deeper decline through 1.3480 low.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 219.56 to 209.55 at 215.73 will pave the way to retest 219.56 high. On the downside, below 215.38 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound above 55 W EMA (now at 208.91) keeps the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) intact. Firm break of 209.55 should target 100% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 243.51. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 187.93 to 179.34 at 184.64 will pave the way to retest 187.93 high. On the downside, below 184.09 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from rising 55 W EMA (now at 180.23) keeps the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) intact. Break of 187.93 will target 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral as range trading continues. While rebound from 0.9453 might extend, strong resistance should be seen from 0.8610 support turned resistance to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.8528 support will argue that the corrective rebound from 0.8453 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting this low. However, firm break of 0.8610 will bring stronger rally to falling channel resistance (now at 0.8650).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold.

EUR/AUD is still holding above 1.6250 support. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.6108 (or 1.6125) is still extending. On the downside, break of 1.6250 will bring deeper fall back to retest 1.6108 low. On the upside, above 1.6358 will bring stronger rebound to 1.6503 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen below 0.9408 temporary top. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9326 support holds. Above 0.9408 will extend larger rise to 138.2% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9488.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9394 resistance solidify the case that rise from 0.8979 medium term is at least reversing the fall from 0.9928 (2024 high), with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Further rally should be seen to 0.9660 resistance next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9264 resistance turned support holds, in case of pullbacks.

• The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has allowed oil prices to break out of the $80–90 range.
• The rapid decline in stocks is increasing the risk that Brent will rise above $100.

The US dollar has re-entered the fray thanks to geopolitics. The 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has expired. Washington has no intention of extending it, whilst Tehran has threatened to escalate the conflict and has seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Houthis, who are under its control, have stepped up attacks on oil infrastructure in the Red Sea. This has caused Brent to surge towards $92 per barrel, increased the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy, and allowed the USD index to rise.

The main reason for the slowdown in US inflation in June and July was the decline in energy prices following the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the probability of monetary tightening in September fell to 34%, while the chances of a rate hike by the end of 2026 eased to 64%. Following Iran’s seizure of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Oman if it continued to obstruct the US blockade, the risk of monetary policy tightening this year has returned to 70%. This has given the greenback a boost.

The situation is heating up, yet Brent is not rising as rapidly as many expected. At the start of the conflict in the Middle East, there was much talk of North Sea crude soaring to $150 per barrel. The bulls have made only modest gains. The reason lies in the Strait of Hormuz’s throughput capacity and shadow supply. It has fallen, but not as sharply as expected.

According to Kpler, transit volumes have fallen from a pre-war level of 18 million barrels per day to 4.9 million bpd. However, a Bloomberg insider claims that the actual figures are much higher. The US Department of Energy recently cited a figure of 9 million bpd. This is likely due to the ‘shadow fleet’ and the use of alternative routes. Kpler estimates that exports from the Middle East have fallen from 21 million bpd to 9.5 million bpd.

The market is gradually coming to terms with the idea that supply disruptions are not a temporary shock, but a new reality. Meanwhile, Brent is being supported by reports that US strategic reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1982, losing 5.3 million barrels in the last week alone. The safety cushion is shrinking before our very eyes, and the risks of an oil rally above $100 per barrel are mounting.

The FxPro Analyst Team