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• GBP/JPY’s month‑long sustained upside meets strong resistance.
• Momentum signals reflect signs of bullish exhaustion.

GBP/JPY’s steady ascent within a month‑long upward‑sloping channel is showing signs of stabilisation, with price action repeatedly meeting strong resistance near the upper Bollinger band at 213.30.

The broader bias remains bullish as the pair continues to trade above the long‑term rising support trendline drawn from the April lows. However, the failure to breach the strong resistance area tracking monthly‑highs, combined with softening technical indicators – with the MACD, RSI, and stochastics flattening in positive territory –strengthens the case for a potential bearish correction.

Such a correction would likely materialise if price action breaks below the 20‑ and 50‑day simple moving averages (SMAs) near 212.00-211.20 and breaches the trendline, opening the way toward weekly lows near 210.75. A break there could accelerate declines toward the monthly low near 209.15.

Conversely, a decisive move above 213.30 could target the February highs near 214.20, then 215.00, and ultimately the multi‑year peak near 215.78, tracking the July 20, 2008 high.

All in all, GBP/JPY remains bullish but has so far failed to extend gains back toward the multi‑year highs at the year‑to‑date peak of 215.00, with repeated attempts hitting a wall. The momentum indicators show neither buyers nor sellers firmly in control, suggesting consolidation for now – a backdrop that keeps downside risks contained.

Today, BTC/USD is trading slightly below the psychological $70k level. Assessing its price action since the panic on 5 February, it is reasonable to suggest that the market is showing signs of range-bound behaviour: sellers tend to emerge near $75k, while buyers become active around $65k.

This balance between supply and demand, where neither side has been able to take control for several weeks, may feel either tiring or calming; however, the price chart suggests there are reasons for concern.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

On 18 March, analysing Bitcoin’s price action within a broad descending channel, we:

• → noted signs of buying pressure, which led to the formation of an intermediate ascending channel (shown in blue);
• → suggested that buyers were pushing sellers out of the $70–72k zone, which could act as support.

However, the price soon reversed lower from the psychological $75k level, and the highlighted zone failed to provide support. Bulls retreated and showed an inability to defend the gains marked by the first arrow.

A similar lack of strength was observed later:

• → As indicated by the second arrow, on Monday, 23 March, Bitcoin surged sharply following statements by Donald Trump regarding negotiations with Iran.
• → However, the previously mentioned $72k level acted as resistance, and yesterday’s decline once again reflects a retreat by buyers.

As a result, there are grounds to conclude that bulls are struggling to sustain momentum, increasing the risk of a bearish breakout below the lower boundary of the blue channel. This level is particularly important because:

• → the blue channel may be interpreted as a bearish flag pattern;
• → a breakdown of this pattern could pave the way for a continuation of the prevailing downtrend, which has been in place since autumn 2025.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.70; (P) 213.01; (R1) 213.31; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the upside, firm break of 213.28 resistance will resume the rally from 207.20 and target a retest on 214.98 high. However, break of 210.77 will turn bias back to the downside for 209.15 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 203.13) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.96; (P) 184.22; (R1) 184.49; More...

EUR/JPY retreated ahead of 184.75 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 184.75 resistance will resume the whole rise from 180.78 and target a retest on 186.86 high. On the downside, break of 182.02 will bring deeper fall back to 180.78 support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 175.61) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8637; (P) 0.8650; (R1) 0.8664; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias stays neutral. With 55 D EMA (now at 0.8680) intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, firm break of 0.8611 will resume the whole fall from 0.8863 to 100% projection of 0.8863 to 0.8611 from 0.8788 at 0.8536. However, sustained break above 55 D EMA will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8788 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development revived the case that whole rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618 will confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8863 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6651; (P) 1.6706; (R1) 1.6796; More...

EUR/AUD's rise from 1.6125 short term bottom continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.6755) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053. Nevertheless, below 1.6607 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7245) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9149; (P) 0.9161; (R1) 0.9178; More....

EUR/CHF's rally from 0.8979 short term bottom continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.8979 at 0.9235 next. On the downside, below 0.9142 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

• USD strength fading within range: Post-FOMC USD strength lacks follow-through, with the US Dollar Index nearing key resistance (100.10–100.54), suggesting limited upside and potential near-term exhaustion.
• Hawkish ECB supporting EUR: Rising inflation risks (linked to the US-Iran conflict and energy shock) have pushed the European Central Bank toward a more hawkish stance, narrowing US–Eurozone yield spreads and underpinning a potential EUR/USD rebound.
• EUR/USD at key technical inflection: Pair is holding above 1.1495 support; a break above 1.1573 could drive a rebound toward 1.1635–1.1673, while a drop below 1.1495 would resume the broader downtrend toward 1.1455–1.1400.

The initial pop-up in US dollar strength following the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, 18 March 2026, does not have a clear positive follow-through, as the US Dollar Index remains trapped within a complex medium-term sideways range configuration that has been in place since 29 May 2025.

The recent 3-day rally in the US Dollar Index, which began on Tuesday, 24 March 2026, has almost reached the medium-term range resistance zone of 100.10/100.54, where minor short-term US dollar strength may be dissipated at this juncture (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: US Dollar Index medium-term trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Hawkish ECB ‘saves’ the euro for now

Fig. 2: Narrowing of 2-year yield discount spread between Eurozone sovereign bond and US Treasury note as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

A hawkish stance or guidance from the US Federal Reserve does not necessarily result in sustained US dollar strength, as the currency’s trajectory is ultimately shaped by relative monetary policy dynamics across other major developed market central banks.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has voiced concerns of stagflation risk arising from the ongoing US-Iran war that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global oil and energy flows significantly.

Even though, in the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting on 19 March 2026, where it left its key policy deposit rate unchanged at 2% since June 2025, it has issued a hawkish guidance where the ECB prioritized heightened inflation risk over demand destruction that led to the Eurozone’s interest rate swaps market to price in at least two interest rate hikes by ECB before 2026 ends.

In a slew of public speeches made this week so far, key ECB officials have maintained their stances of combating inflation as a primary initiative over demand growth concerns arising from a potential prolonged global oil and energy supply shock.

ECB President Lagarde said the ECB will act decisively and swiftly if the current surge in energy costs risks a broader bout of inflation.

ECB Governing Council member Nagel added that the ECB may start to hike interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in April if the inflation outlook continues to accelerate due to the US-Iran war.

The European Central Bank’s increasingly hawkish stance has driven a further narrowing of the 2-year yield discount differential between Eurozone sovereign bonds and US Treasuries (see Fig. 2).

The 2-year yield spread of the Eurozone sovereign bond over the US Treasury note has inched higher since its major bullish breakout in September 2025, from -1.6% to -1.26% at this time of writing.

A further narrowing of the 2-year sovereign bond yield discount between the Eurozone and the US is likely to support at least a minor recovery in the EUR/USD.

Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

EUR/USD – 3-day decline stalling at “Expanding Wedge” support

Fig. 3: EUR/USD minor trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The recent 3-day decline of 1% seen in the EUR/USD from the Monday, 23 March 2026 minor swing high of 1.1640 has started to stall at the minor “Expanding Wedge” support on Thursday, 26 March 2026.

Watch the 1.1495 key short-term pivotal support on the EUR/USD, breaking above 1.1573 near-term resistance (also the 20-day moving average) may unleash a further corrective push up towards the upper limit of the minor “Expanding Wedge” configuration, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 1.1635 and 1.1673 (also the key 200-day moving average) (see Fig. 3).

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.1495 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for the multi-month bearish impulsive down move sequence to resume, exposing the next intermediate supports at 1.1455 and 1.1400 in the first step.

Key elements to support the bullish bias on EUR/USD

• The recent 3-day decline has stalled at the minor “Expanding Wedge” support in place since the 13 March 2026 minor swing low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has traced out a bullish divergence condition near its oversold region.

US unilateral efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East are waning, as Iran has not backed any negotiation claims. Donald Trump’s 5-day ceasefire deadline was due to end today, but he decided to extend it to April 6. Just before that, he said the US would “keep blowing them away.” This is becoming increasingly difficult to follow.

With or without the US in the mix, attacks continue in the Middle East. Gulf countries have exchanged strikes throughout the week, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains very limited. Iran’s so-called “gift” to Trump was the transit of 10 oil tankers this week — compared to roughly 100 ships that pass through this strategic waterway per day in normal times.

As such, the extension of Trump’s ceasefire does not necessarily point to material progress toward peace or an improvement in oil flows. However, it appears to reassure investors that the weekend could be less volatile than feared, in the sense that the US may refrain from further escalation after the market close.

This likely helped lift sentiment in Asia this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225, as well as US and European futures, moving higher following an ugly session that pushed the S&P 500 down 1.74% and the Nasdaq-100 by more than 2.3%.

Elsewhere in tech, memory chip makers came under pressure after Google published research on a new algorithm that could allow more efficient use of storage required for AI development. This could ease pressure on memory chip prices, which has surged in recent months (by triple-digit percentages in some cases), and weigh on memory chip makers’ profitability. SanDisk — a key name in the memory chip rally — fell 11% yesterday, while South Korea’s KOSPI slipped below its 50-day moving average. Further downside is possible, although the structural shortage in memory chips should help limit deeper losses, and keep memory chip makers in demand.

In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 also came under pressure, albeit to a lesser extent, as European countries approved a trade deal with the US that would cap tariffs on European exports at 15%, while removing tariffs on US industrial goods.

Whether this is seen as fair is another question. European policymakers are already mapping US vulnerabilities to increase leverage in future negotiations — a sign that this deal may not be the endgame, and that further trade headlines are likely.

Interestingly, the exposure analysis shows that the US relies heavily on European chemicals and pharmaceuticals — bingo for Switzerland. The SMI is heavily weighted toward pharmaceuticals, with Roche and Novartis together accounting for roughly 35–37% of the index. This helps explain why the SMI fell just 0.6% yesterday, outperforming both European and US peers. Even the energy-heavy FTSE 100 dropped 1.33% despite rising oil prices.

In energy markets — the key driver for global financial markets right now — US crude rose to $96 per barrel yesterday and is trading closer to $94 this morning, while Brent crude has moved back above the $100 level and is consolidating gains. The pressure remains to the upside.

One bright spot this morning is China’s CSI 300, which is rebounding from its 200-day moving average after data showed industrial profits rising 15%.

Overall, however, the situation in the Middle East remains unchanged. Geopolitical risks persist, the conflict involving Iran has now extended beyond a month, and the prolonged disruption to oil and other supplies is posing a serious threat to global inflation. The OECD has revised its inflation forecast for this year from 2.8% to 4%, pointing to tighter global monetary conditions ahead.

Unsurprisingly, yesterday’s US 30-year bond auction was weak, with the yield pushing toward 5%. Globally, yields are rising on higher inflation expectations, tighter monetary policy, and increased military spending. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to 2.36%, the highest since January, while benchmark European yields are pushing to levels last seen in 2011, and UK gilt yields are at highs since 2008.

Rising global yields are weighing on gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Gold’s recent weakness is also linked to US dollar strength. Central Bank of Turkey, for example, reportedly sold and swapped around 60 tons of gold in the first two weeks of the Iran conflict to support the lira — a dynamic that may be reflected in other central banks facing higher energy import costs. In a similar behaviour, investors also trimmed gold positions to cover losses elsewhere.

Gold is slightly firmer this morning on a softer US dollar, but downside risks remain. Technically, gold has tested a major support level — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally since late 2023 — which coincides with the 200-day moving average. The broader bullish trend remains intact above this level, but a break below (around $4’115 per ounce) could open the door to a medium-term consolidation phase. Longer term, the outlook remains constructive, as central banks are likely to rebuild reserves, making dips attractive buying opportunities.

In focus today

In Norway, focus turns to unemployment data. The registered unemployment rate has declined in recent months, which could indicate growth slightly above trend. However, employment growth has eased, suggesting that the drop in unemployment might be partly due to slower growth in labour supply. We expect the unemployment rate s.a. to remain at 2.1% in March, with a slight increase in the number of unemployed compared to February.

Also in Norway, we get retail sales - which have shown significant fluctuations in recent months - partly due to problems with seasonal adjustment around the Christmas holiday. However, higher electricity consumption in January likely resulted in higher electricity bills in February, which may have dampened retail trade. We thus expect retail sales s.a. to fall by 1% m/m in February.

In Spain, the first inflation print for March is expected to show a sharp increase in HICP inflation to 3.8% y/y (prior: 2.5%). The increase is solely due to energy prices, as gasoline pump prices have risen on average 12.5% m/m. The rise in Spanish HICP inflation is expected to outpace the euro area, where markets anticipate an increase to 2.6% y/y (prior: 1.9%), due to a larger base effect on energy price. Last March, HICP energy fell 3.7% m/m in Spain compared to only 1.4% m/m in the euro area.

Lastly, several central bank speeches are on the menu. ECB's Schnabel is set to speak in the afternoon, and we also have two speeches from Fed officials. The market will be looking for comments on inflation and the war.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

We have changed our ECB call and now expect two 25bp hikes in April and June, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. We then expect the ECB to cut policy rates by 25bp in March and April 2027, respectively, returning the deposit rate to 2.00%. Comments from ECB's Governing Council members have been significantly more hawkish than Lagarde's view at the last monetary policy meeting. This makes 50bp hikes by YE 2026 more likely than ECB remaining at 2.00%, though the latter cannot be ruled out. Our call is highly contingent on the developments in Iran.

We also update our Riksbank call in Reading the Markets Sweden, 27 March, and now expect hikes in May, June and August to 2.50% (previously hikes in Dec-26 and Mar-27 to 2.25%). We then expect gradual cuts during 2027 down to 2.00%. With the ECB likely to hike in April and June, this allows the Riksbank to move in May. We do stress, however, the uncertainty around this call and, given the wide range of potential outcomes, it is possible to see both a more severe scenario in which the Riksbank will be forced to tighten even more, as well as a more benign one in which the Riksbank could stay on hold.

What happened yesterday

In Norway, Norges Bank unanimously held the key policy rate unchanged at 4.00% in a 'hawkish hold'. The newly included "Summary of the Committee's deliberations" showed how some members had argued for an immediate hike, while others preferred to await more information on the prospects for inflation. "Judgement" was used to lift the rate path by 20-45bp, showing a short-term desire to tighten policy. We have revised our Norges Bank call, now expecting two 25bp hikes, in June and September, this year, followed by four 25bp rate cuts in 2027, and a final 25bp cut in 2028.

In central bank space, several Fed officials commented on the inflation outlook, Fed governor Lisa Cook stated that the war in the Middle East change the risk outlook for now and inflation was a bigger concern than the labour market. Other Fed officials stated that they would prefer to keep rates on hold given the uncertainty of the war and the impact on growth and inflation.

In the European Parliament, MEPs approved the EU-US Turnberry trade deal, which eliminates EU tariffs on most US industrial goods and caps tariffs on EU exports to the US at 15%. The deal has been slightly modified, now including safeguards such as requiring US compliance with the tariff ceiling before implementation. The agreement now moves to member state negotiations before a final ratification. While the temporary 15% tariff had limited impact on aggregate euro area exports in 2025 due to front-loading of Irish medicine exports, economies like Germany, heavily exposed to the US, have seen exports decline.

In France, the March business confidence survey revealed a rise in manufacturing selling price expectations, but far below the 2022 inflation episode. It is early days of the supply shock, so we do expect the index to rise further in the coming months. However, for the ECB's Apil meeting, this is not particularly hawkish.

Equities: Equities retreated yesterday. US especially fell hard, with S&P 500 -1.7% and Nasdaq -2.4%, following a triple whammy of negative triggers. First, investors questioned the de-escalation trade again, sending both oil prices and yields higher and thereby a sharp FCI tightening, which in turn took its toll on equities and especially cyclicals and growth stocks. Secondly, memory- and semis reversed lower after Google presented its Google Turboquant innovation, saying it could reduce the amount of memory required to run large language models by up to six times. While Micron was down -7% on this, it is good news for the equity market in general we believe, as it could ease the pressure on the hardware bottlenecks. Finally, big tech was lower on legal risks, following a jury verdict on Meta, sending the stock down -8%. Futures are about 0.5-1% higher this morning, as oil futures retraced somewhat lower.

FI and FX: The US decision to extend the pause on energy attacks on Iran had only a very short-lived impact on markets. Brent crude dripped, but quickly returned to the USD107/bbl level, EUR/USD briefly spiked, and the 10Y US Treasury yield temporarily fell below 4.40%. EUR/NOK fell sharply yesterday and briefly touched 11.10 after Norges Bank signalled upcoming rate hikes. The pair partially reversed course as falling equities weighed on the NOK.