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S&P 500: ⬇️ Sell

• S&P 500 broke strong support level 6440.00
• Likely to fall to support level 6225.00

S&P 500 index recently broke below the strong support level 6440.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 5 in March) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.

The breakout of the support level 6440.00 should add to the bearish pressure on this index.

S&P 500 index can be expected to fall further to the next support level 6225.00 (former strong support from July and August of 2025).

Global markets have entered a definitive “Judgment Week” for the Federal Reserve, where the future of the 2026 interest rate path will be tested against a backdrop of $110 oil. Following February’s shock loss of -92k jobs, the Friday NFP report serves as the final verdict on whether the U.S. labor market is merely cooling or officially freezing. However, the Fed remains trapped in a “Dual-Mandate Deadlock”. Any outcome other than a "Goldilocks" NFP print could force the FOMC into a public policy brawl—pitting the necessity of a growth-saving pause against the "Volcker-script" requirement to crush resurging inflation.

The High-Stakes Events: The Evidence on Trial

1. The Verdict: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) & Unemployment (Friday, April 3)

After the -92k contraction in February, the Fed is praying for a "Goldilocks" stabilization. A print between +50k and +80k, and even better with revision to January's figure, allows them to maintain their "Hawkish Hold," dismissing the 4.4% unemployment rate as a "normalization."

The Panic Trigger: Another contraction (e.g., -50k) would prove the labor market is in a freefall. However, the Average Hourly Earnings (exp. 0.4% mom) is the "Stagflation Trap" within the data; if jobs vanish but wages stay high, the Fed cannot cut rates without surrendering to inflation.

2. The Star Witness: ISM Manufacturing Index (Wednesday, April 1)

While NFP is the result, the ISM tells us why it’s happening. The Prices Paid sub-index is the most critical metric here. If it remains elevated above 70 while New Orders fall below 50, it confirms the "Stagflation Filter." This signals that "cost-push" inflation from the Middle East is filtering into the supply chain, a scenario the Fed cannot fix with traditional interest rate tools.

3. The Global Catalyst: Eurozone Flash CPI (Tuesday, March 31)

The Flash CPI on Tuesday is arguably the most pivotal data point for the Euro since the start of the conflict. While the market consensus is currently set for a jump toward 2.4%, the "whisper" expectation is shifting even higher due to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If Tuesday's print hits 2.4% or higher, it will be seen as a "call to action" and solidify the case for an April ECB hike. Also, A high March CPI effectively turns June from a "maybe" to a "certainty" for the market.

The Silent Movers: The Shadow Risks

1. Germany’s Flash CPI (Monday, March 30)

As the Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany is the "canary in the coal mine." Because it reports 24 hours before the aggregate Eurozone data, a "beat" here will trigger an immediate front-running of the Euro. It serves as the early-warning system for whether the energy shock has already become entrenched in European economy.

2. RBA Monetary Policy Minutes (Tuesday, March 31)

Traders are looking for the "split" details. The previous meeting was a 5-4 vote; if the minutes lean hawkish due to "capacity pressures," the AUD could see renewed strength.

3. JPY Tankan Survey (Wednesday, April 1)

This is the definitive look at Japan’s business sentiment. With Japan’s headline CPI at a two-year low (1.3%), any weakness in the Tankan could provide the Bank of Japan with an excuse to delay normalization.

Highlights for the week:

The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, pushing yields lower. This time, yields are rising alongside oil, signaling that inflation fears are beginning to dominate over traditional risk aversion.

At the core of this shift is a “war of attrition” in the Middle East that is feeding a “slow-boil” inflation dynamic into the global economy. Rather than a sharp spike followed by relief, persistently elevated energy costs are filtering through supply chains, from transport to food production. This creates a classic “policy paradox” for central banks: tighten policy to contain inflation and risk a deeper slowdown, or tolerate rising prices and risk inflation becoming entrenched.

But unlike the 1970s, today’s central bankers are acutely aware of the lessons from “Burns’ failure”, making them far less likely to tolerate prolonged inflation drift. As a result, markets are now preparing for outcomes that could differ sharply from that era. Gold may no longer be the “King” in an environment of rising real yields, while Dollar—supported by higher rates and energy independence—could emerge as the global “wrecking ball.” Against this backdrop, the focuses should be on a “triple threat”—oil pushing toward 120, equities testing key support levels, and Treasury yields approaching 5%—as confirmation that a structural stagflation regime is taking hold.

War of Attrition Deepens as “Pause” Masks Structural Supply Shock

What initially appeared to be a potential off-ramp has instead evolved into a prolonged “war of attrition”, reinforcing the transition toward a “slow-boil” inflation regime. The latest decision by US President Donald Trump to delay a major strike on Iranian energy infrastructure by another 10 days, citing “productive” diplomatic talks via intermediaries, has done little to reassure markets. Rather than signaling de-escalation, the move is increasingly seen as a tactical pause that allows both sides to reposition while keeping the underlying conflict unresolved.

Developments on the ground point clearly in that direction. Iran’s declaration restricting access through the Strait of Hormuz to vessels linked to the US, Israel, and their allies represents a significant escalation in economic pressure. While not a full blockade, it introduces targeted disruption to one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. At the same time, military activity in the region continues unabated, suggesting that diplomacy and escalation are unfolding in parallel rather than as alternatives.

This combination is precisely what is pulling the global economy closer to “1970s-style stagflation.” Instead of a sharp, short-lived shock, markets are now facing a prolonged period of elevated costs and persistent uncertainty. Energy supply risks are no longer hypothetical—they are being operationalized through restrictions and strategic maneuvering. The longer this environment persists, the more likely it is that higher input costs will be embedded across supply chains, transforming a geopolitical conflict into a structural inflation problem.

“Dual Shock” Confirmed as Oil and Yields Rise Together, Equities Crack

Market pricing is increasingly aligning with a stagflationary outcome, led by the emergence of a clear “dual shock” dynamic. Treasury yields are rising alongside oil prices, breaking from the traditional crisis pattern where bonds rally as a safe haven. The US 10-year yield climbed to 4.44% last week, with markets now eyeing a move toward 4.5%, reflecting growing concerns that inflation will remain persistent rather than transitory.

At the same time, energy markets are signaling that supply pressures are intensifying. WTI has surged back above 100 after rebounding from 85.11, with a break of 102.31 likely to trigger a move toward the 119.45 high. Brent has also regained strong upward momentum, climbing from 96.26 to above 110 and positioning for a potential retest of 119.70. These moves suggest that markets are no longer pricing a temporary disruption, but a sustained constraint on supply.

Equity markets are reacting accordingly. The DOW declined -0.9% over the week, nearing the critical 45k support level, while the NASDAQ dropped -2.15% and is approaching the 20k psychological threshold. The weakness reflects not just higher discount rates, but a reassessment of earnings resilience in a more challenging macro environment.

Stagflation Policy Paradox: Why Central Banks Won’t Repeat 1970s Mistakes

The emergence of a stagflationary environment brings with it a classic “policy paradox.” Unlike a standard downturn where central banks can cut rates to support growth, or a typical inflation spike where tightening can cool demand without major trade-offs, stagflation forces policymakers into a binary choice. They must either tighten policy and risk amplifying the economic slowdown, or tolerate rising inflation and risk it becoming entrenched.

History offers a clear warning. During the 1970s, the Federal Reserve under Arthur Burns attempted to manage the unemployment-inflation trade-off, keeping policy too loose in the face of rising price pressures. This approach allowed inflation expectations to drift higher even as growth stagnated, ultimately requiring far more aggressive tightening later. It was only when Paul Volcker pushed rates sharply higher that inflation was brought under control, at the cost of a deep recession.

Today’s central bankers are unlikely to repeat that mistake. Policymakers are widely seen as students of that era, with a clear bias toward acting earlier rather than later. The prevailing view is that inflation, once embedded, is far more damaging than a cyclical downturn, shifting the balance of risks toward pre-emptive tightening.

Market expectations are already adjusting. The narrative has shifted from rate cuts to the possibility of renewed tightening, particularly as the risk of second-round inflation effects from energy prices builds. For example, in Europe, some economists are now pointing to the possibility of multiple ECB rate hikes in April and June.

This sets the stage for a different policy path compared to the 1970s. Rather than a prolonged period of “stop-go” policy, central banks are more likely to pursue a decisive tightening cycle, even if it results in weaker growth. In effect, policymakers appear willing to engineer a “recession light” today to avoid a more severe and prolonged adjustment later.

A Different Playbook — How Asset Markets Diverge from the 1970s Stagflation Era

A key difference between today’s environment and the 1970s lies in how monetary policy shapes asset performance. Back then, delayed and inconsistent tightening allowed inflation to erode real returns across markets. This time, with central banks acting more decisively, asset behavior is likely to diverge sharply from the historical playbook.

Gold, the undisputed “King” of the 1970s, may not enjoy the same dominance in this cycle. During that era, gold surged from 35 to 850 as inflation accelerated and real yields turned deeply negative. Today, however, the backdrop is very different. With central banks expected to maintain higher interest rates to combat inflation, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises. As a result, gold’s upside is likely to be capped, rather than explosive.

Commodities, particularly energy, are still poised to outperform, but in a more concentrated manner. In the 1970s, broad-based commodity gains were driven by widespread supply shortages. In contrast, today’s environment features more targeted disruptions, particularly in oil and energy-related inputs. Structural changes, including the rise of renewables and efficiency gains from technology, suggest that while energy may rally strongly, the commodity boom is unlikely to be as broad-based.

Equity markets face a more challenging outlook. In the 1970s, stocks delivered poor real returns, but nominal prices were largely range-bound as the Federal Reserve oscillated between tightening and easing. This time, the absence of “stop-go” policy increases the risk of a sharper adjustment. With central banks maintaining restrictive conditions and margins under pressure, equities are more likely to face a decisive correction rather than a prolonged sideways trend.

Dollar could stand out as the clearest structural winner. In the 1970s, Dollar was weakened by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and rising inflation. Today, the situation is reversed. With the US benefiting from energy independence and relatively higher interest rates, Dollar is strengthening, supported by both fundamentals and policy dynamics.

In this sense, Dollar has transitioned from being the “problem” to becoming the global “wrecking ball.” As tightening persists and capital flows seek yield and stability, USD strength is likely to remain a defining feature of this stagflationary regime, amplifying pressure on other currencies and global financial conditions.

Watching the “Triple Threat” as Markets Approach Key Inflection Points

Markets are now converging on a critical “triple threat” that will determine whether the stagflation regime fully takes hold: Brent at 120, the DOW at 45k, and the US 10-year yield at 5%. These are not just technical levels—they are macro thresholds that signal a shift from stress to systemic repricing. A sustained move across these markers would confirm that markets are no longer pricing a temporary shock, but a structural imbalance.

In energy markets, Brent above 120 would indicate that supply disruptions are being treated as persistent rather than cyclical. At that level, oil is no longer reflecting a war premium—it signals a tightening global supply backdrop that feeds directly into inflation expectations and cost structures. This would reinforce the “slow-boil” inflation dynamic, making it increasingly difficult for central banks to stabilize prices without further tightening.

At the same time, a break below 45k in the DOW, particularly alongside rising yields, would confirm that “higher for longer” interest rate is actively eroding equity valuations. The most critical trigger, however, lies in the bond market. A decisive move in the 10-year yield toward or above 5% would risk a broader “VaR shock,” forcing institutional deleveraging and resetting the global risk-free rate. In such a scenario, the combined effect of rising yields and falling equities would mark the transition into a full stagflation-driven market adjustment.

Conclusion: Markets Shift from Event Risk to Stagflation Regime

Markets are undergoing a decisive shift from pricing short-term geopolitical risks to confronting a broader stagflationary regime. The combination of a “war of attrition”, “slow-boil” inflation, and the “dual shock” in oil and yields is redefining the macro landscape. This is no longer about isolated volatility—it is about a sustained change in how inflation, growth, and policy interact.

With central banks leaning toward tighter policy and markets increasingly focused on structural inflation risks, asset behavior is diverging from past cycles. Dollar’s rise as the “wrecking ball”, alongside the emergence of the “triple threat” as key market triggers, underscores this shift. Until there is a clear resolution to the underlying drivers, markets are likely to remain anchored in this new regime, where inflation persistence—not growth recovery—dictates direction.

Technical Outlook: “Triple Threat” Levels Come Into Focus Across Markets

As the macro backdrop shifts toward a stagflationary regime, price action across key assets is approaching critical technical inflection points. The “triple threat” framework—equities, yields, and oil—is now clearly reflected in charts, with multiple markets to test levels that will determine whether current moves extend into a broader structural shift or stabilize in the near term.

DOW

DOW’s decline from 50,512.79 resumed last week and is now approaching the key support zone around the 45k psychological level. This area is reinforced by 38.2% retracement of 36,611.78 to 50,512.79 at 45,202.26, as well as 2024 peak at 45,071.29, making it a critical confluence zone.

A strong rebound from this region, followed by a break above 46,718.42 resistance, would suggest that selling pressure has reached a near-term climax. Such a move would open the way for recovery toward the 55 D EMA (now at 47,799.33) and potentially higher.

However, sustained break below 45k would signal a more significant shift. DOW could then be in reversal to the uptrend from 36,611.78 (2025 low), rather than merely correcting. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 41,921.97, or even further to multi-year channel floor near 40k.

NASDAQ

NASDAQ presents a similar technical picture. With current downside momentum remaining strong, the decline from 24,020.00 is likely to extend toward 38.2% retracement of 14,784.03 (2025 low) to 24,020.00 at 20,465.18.

The key support zone lies around the 20k psychological level, where 20,204.58 (2024 high) has turned into support. Strong rebound from this region, followed by break above 22,189.34 resistance, would suggest that the pullback has completed.

However, decisive break below 20k would open the door for deeper losses toward 61.8% retracement at 18,296.68, or even further toward long-term trendline support, currently around 16,700.

US 10-Year Yield

The US 10-year yield’s rally from 3.956 remains in an acceleration phase, as indicated by D MACD. While near-term volatility is possible, further upside is favored as long as 55 D EMA (now at 4.201) holds.

The next key target is 4.629 resistance. Firm break there will solidify the case that 10-year yield is actually extending the rise from 3.603 (2024 low), and set up further rise through 4.809 resistance to take on 4.997 (2023 high).

Dollar Index

Dollar Index hovered inside established range last week. With 98.49 support intact, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 95.55 low should extend to key resistance at 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 95.55 at 101.13. Reaction from there will be important to determine Dollar Index's medium term trend.

More importantly, it should be emphasized that Dollar Index has just rebounded from the multi decade channel floor. Firm break of 55 M EMA (now at 102.31) will indicate that the whole down trend from 114.77 (2022 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 95.55. The would open up the case for resuming the up trend from 70.69 (2008 low) through 114.77 in the medium term.

Brent Crude (Near-Term)

The extended rebound in Brent crude suggests that the pullback from 119.24 has likely completed at 96.26, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 81.41 to 119.24 at 95.86. Further gains are expected as long as the 55 4H EMA (now at 103.73) holds. The next target is a retest of the 119.24–119.70 resistance zone. Decisive break above this area would confirm that the broader uptrend is resuming.

WTI Crude (Near-Term)

WTI crude’s sharp rebound indicates that the correction from 102.31 has likely completed at 85.11. Immediate focus is now on 102.31 resistance. Firm break above this level would resume the rebound from 76.76, targeting 100% projection of 76.76 to 102.31 from 85.11 at 110.66, with further upside potential toward a retest of the 119.45 high.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3480 accelerated high last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will argue that it's already reversing the whole down trend from 1.4791, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290. On the downside, below 1.3844 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3751 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3574) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

EUR/USD remains bounded in consolidations above 1.1408 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further decline is expected with 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.1501) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY's rally from 152.25 resumed by breaking through 159.88 resistance last week. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to retest 161.94 high next. On the downside, below 159.35 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.97) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD remains bounded in established range above 1.3216 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected with 1.3482 resistance intact. On the downside break of 1.3216 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, decisive break of 1.3482 will argue that the fall from 1.3867 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3216 at 1.3618.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's rally from 0.7603 resumed last week by breaking through 0.7957. Initial bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. For now, further rally is expected as long as 0.7833 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8091) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's extended decline last week should confirm medium term topping at 0.7187. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. On the upside, above 0.6956 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7187 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6669) holds.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3480 accelerated high last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will argue that it's already reversing the whole down trend from 1.4791, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290. On the downside, below 1.3844 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3751 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3574) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.