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The S&P 500 (SPX) has advanced to a new all-time high, confirming that the bullish sequence from the November 21, 2025 low remains intact. This breakout favors more upside in the near term. The rally from that low is unfolding in a clear five-wave structure, consistent with Elliott Wave analysis. Wave ((i)) ended at 6986.33, marking the first leg of strength. The pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a zigzag correction. Within this phase, wave (a) ended at 6885.74, wave (b) rallied to 6979.34, and wave (c) declined to 6788.03. This completed wave ((ii)) at a higher degree.

From there, the index resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Wave (i) advanced to 6934.75, while wave (ii) pulled back to 6895.5. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 6988.82. A short-term pullback in wave (iv) is expected, but buyers should return for one more push higher to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). Afterward, the index should correct in wave ((iv)), addressing the cycle from the January 21, 2026 low before resuming its broader rally.

Near term, as long as the pivot at 6788.03 holds, pullbacks are likely to remain corrective. Buyers are expected to appear in three, seven, or eleven swings, supporting further upside. This structure highlights market resilience and suggests that the path of least resistance continues to point higher.

S&P 500 (SPX) 45 minute chart

SPX Elliott Wave video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_HLzYzjk5g

• After Gold reached $5,000, other metals are selling off
• Signs from previous weeks could point to a larger correction depending on the FOMC outlook
• Technical analysis for XAG/USD (Gold), XAU/USD (Silver) and XPT/USD (Platinum) & FOMC trading levels

A lot has changed since our last high-timeframe outlook, reminding us that black swan events can affect any projections and expectations in a matter of a headline and a session.

The start of 2026 has been marked by chaotic headlines and geopolitical events, which is now a new norm. Some call it the New World Order (or New World Disorder).

Last weekend offered quite a show across Markets and journals as the US President decided to threaten additional tariffs to European nations in his latest temper tantrum:

Donald Trump reaffirmed his desire to acquire Greenland, sparking widespread concern ahead of the World Economic Conference, held in Davos last week.

The immediate reactions were flash US Dollar selloffs and Metals extending much higher in a newfound risk-off move.

Despite the headlines materializing into something much less concerning for the world as we know it, the confidence damage from the latest TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has prolonged the damage to the Greenback and supported the precious commodities.

About a week after the headlines, Silver reached the $100 milestone while Gold accelerated to $5,000, not even mentioning the swift rises in Platinum, Palladium, and other metals.

Metals performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView

Shortly after reaching the new milestones, however, some divergences between metals have emerged and are turning into quite sudden reversals.

Silver topped suddenly at $117 after a 27% weekly explosion, Platinum spiked at $2,884 and now stands 12% lower while Gold holds solidly above $5,000.

Ahead of FOMC events, moves can be exaggerated by lower volumes and orders, which can push supply and demand to have a more significant impact on prices – a result of the past two days of action in Commodities and the US Dollar.

The most extensive tests for the run in metals are about to unfold, both regarding the Federal Reserve:

• The first is tomorrow's monthly FOMC meeting (the first of eight in 2026) – a cut is far from priced in (only 3%), so participants will be listening very closely to what Powell says during his press conference.
• The second, less predictable, is the nomination for the next Fed Chair – Powell's term as Chair ends in May 2026 (but will be able to remain at the Board of Governors).
• Rick Rieder is now the favorite, not far in front of Kevin Warsh – This only looks at the current Prediction-Market odds.
• Some geopolitical events could still largely change the picture.

Odds for the next Fed Chair nomination – Source: Kalshi

Let's dive right into a technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) to spot where the current trend stands, just ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold easily brushed through any pessimistic outlook as the geopolitical tone worsened yet again.

After remaining dormant in the first few trading days of 2026, the Bullion managed a swift push to daily new records, forming a technical Tight Bull Channel.

Last week's push was consistent, backed by the changing fundamental environment.

As other metals now struggle, XAU is showing why it's the ultimate safe-haven: As its peers are giving up their high gains, it remains strongly above $5,000 (and nearing $5,100 as we speak).

A potential US Intervention in Iran is still looming.

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will have a high chance to affect the current flows.

• A neutral/hawkish Fed (base case) could reduce demand, which may prompt a correction to at least $4,600
• A dovish Fed (less likely) would pump gold to swift new highs (a quick test of potential resistance around $5,300).
  • The same would follow in other metals.

In terms of Fed nominees, some analysts argue that Rick Rieder would be bearish on metals (bullish on Bonds and the USD) while Kevin Warsh would keep the trend as it is.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Resistance
• $5,115 All-time highs and running
• Key Fibonacci Projection $5,250 to $5,350
• Next psychological level at $5,500

Support Levels:

• Preceding ATH Pivot $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish below
• Channel break-retest around $4,800 (+/- $30)
• 20-Day Moving average $4,635
• Pivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The ongoing parabolic ascension remains historic as the devil's metal elevates to new record highs, up at whopping 27% since January 16!

A $10 move is now the new normal in the ongoing reckless squeeze – A note to take into account in case volatility keeps rising from here.

The metal reached $117, just shy of $120. After reaching the new record, a flash-sale took Silver to a retest of the $102 level.

Shorter timeframes indicate a triangle consolidation as the pre-FOMC action looks undecided.

• Breaking below its support could point to a swifter retracement, with the $93 to $95 being a reasonable target – A larger retracement could of course occur (watch out for mean-reversion in such violent markets).
• Any push to new record could easily take the metal to the $125 psychological level.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $114 to $117 Current ATH Resistance
• Current record $117.75
• $125.00 Next Psychological Resistance

Support Levels:

• $100 Psychological level
• $93.50 to $96.00 Jan 20 Highs – Current Momentum Pivot
• Mini-Support $83 to $85
• Minor Support $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish below
• Christmas lows $70
• Pivotal Support $48 to $50

Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Platinum looks poised for a test of its upward-channel lower bound around $2,350 to $2,390 after stalling its rise suddenly.

Bears appeared in the metal quickly after Gold reached $5,000 while XPT/USD wicked at $2,882.

With the current action more looking like of consolidation/slight correction, it will be very interesting to see if bulls manage to retake the upper hand after the FOMC.

• A daily close above $2,695 points to new record highs
• Failing to do so may trigger a sharper correction in the Precious Metal – Look at its 20-Day Moving Average ($2,353).

Technical Levels to watch for Platinum (XPT/USD)

Resistance Levels:

• Key level to breach for bulls: $2,695
• Retest Resistance $2,700 to $2,770
• Current Main Resistance $2,880 to $3,000
• Current all-time highs $2,882

Support Levels:

• $2,450 to $2,525 December record Pivot
• 20-Day Moving Average $2,353
• $2,200 to $2,300 2008 Pivotal Support
• 50-Day Moving average $2,000
• 2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,920

Similarly as in our previous Metals outlook, it is essential to remind that participating in such moves can be hazardous as stops can easily trigger in volatile environments.

Keep your risk, orders and positions in check while trading these historic markets, particularly as the FOMC approaches and geopolitical turmoil still looms.

Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves!

Safe Trades!

USDCHF: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCHF broke key support level 0.7880
• Likely to fall to support level 0.7600

USDCHF currency pair falling sharply after the price broke the key support level 0.7880 (which is the lower border of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from June).

The breakout of the support level 0.7880 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of January.

Given the overriding daily downtrend and the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment seen today, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.7600, forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).

EURUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURUSD broke key resistance level 1.1900
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2200

EURUSD currency pair recently broke through the key resistance level 1.1900 (which stopped the sharp daily impulse wave (5) in last September).

The breakout of the resistance level 1.1900 follows the earlier breakout of the daily Triangle from last year – which accelerated the active impulse wave (3).

Given the strong daily uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.2200 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

The January FOMC is one session away, and similarly to the September Meeting, Forex Market action is quite volatile ahead of the event.

Traders are still reflecting on the many themes ongoing in Markets, including Trump Administration chaos, generational runs in Metals, Q4 Earnings, Iran, and global trade deals that are getting all over the place.

This week began on a significant gap down in the US Dollar, with the past week's steep selling flows extending to test a significant 2025 Support (on the Dollar Index).

Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Over the past week, post-Greenland threat selling flows have gathered such traction ahead of the FOMC that no mean reversion can take place.

Look for reactions around the 97.00 level after the meeting: a close above should signal further upside, and vice versa.

Some factors influencing the Dollar include the anticipated announcement of the next Fed Chair. In the meantime, there aren't many reasons except for Dollar bulls to push their bids ahead of the meeting (14:00 E.T. tomorrow).

Other FX currencies are also doing their own thing, with picture-changing releases for Antipodean currencies, the Swissie reaching its second-highest level ever against the USD, FX intervention fears in Japan, and more.

We will dive into an intraday chart outlook for all Major FX Currency pairs and provide trading levels for the upcoming huge FOMC event.

All FX Majors Charts with the key levels in play for the September FOMC

NZD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels – Holding a Tight Bull Channel

NZD/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

FOMC Trading Levels for NZD/USD:

Resistance Levels

• September 2025 Resistance – Imminent test 0.60 to 0.60150
• July 2025 Resistance 0.6060 to 0.6070
• 2025 High Resistance 0.6120

Support Levels

• 0.5950 (+/- 70 pips) Key Momentum Pivot
• 0.59 (+/- 50 pips) Mini-Support
• 0.5850 December High Support
• Main Support 0.5720 to 0.5750

USD/JPY 4H Chart and technical levels – Testing key support

USD/JPY 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

The 4H 50-period MA is about to cross the 200 MA from above, a bearish sign but USD/JPY moves on Intervention fears – Be careful there!

FOMC Trading Levels for USD/JPY:

Resistance Levels

• 154.00 Momentum Pivot
• 155.00 Major Resistance, higher timeframe pivot
• 156.00 Key Resistance
• Mini-resistance 157.00 to 157.30

Support Levels

• Imminent Support from 152.80 to 153.00
• Key Momentum Support 151.50 to 152.00
• July 150.00 to 150.90 Main support

AUD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels – Breaking September 2024 highs

AUD/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

The breakout is a huge one – Keep a close eye on the 4H 20-period MA which tracks the buying momentum well: Closing below would hint at a reversal (not looking close for now)

FOMC Trading Levels for AUD/USD:

Resistance levels

• Daily highs 0.69740
• Dec 2021 Lows 0.70 to 0.7050 Major Resistance
• 2023 Highs and 0.71 Resistance

Support levels

• 0.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 Pivot
• 4H MA 20 0.68930
• Micro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)
• October 2024 Minor support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)
• 0.66 to 0.6630 December Support

EUR/USD 4H Chart and trading levels – Breaking 2025 highs

EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

EUR/USD is breaking out higher but watch the reactions to the 200-Month Moving Average (at 1.19510) which will act as a key Indicator for future action.

FOMC Levels to watch for EURUSD:

Resistance Levels:

• 200-Month Moving Average 1.19512
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone (testing)
• 1.20 psychological level and 2021 highs

Support Levels:

• Main Pivot 1.18 to 1.1840 and Channel lows
• 1.1750 Intermediate Support (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1640 to 1.1660 Intermediate Support
• 1.1580 to 1.16 January Bounce Support

USD/CHF 4H Chart and technical levels – Reaching 2nd lowest levels ever

USD/CHF 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

Watch out for the consequent divergence showing up on the shorter timeframes – Reactions after the FOMC could be very swift.

Breaking current lows could lead to a test of the 0.76 Psychological level

FOMC Levels to watch for USD/CHF:

Resistance Levels

• 0.7950 Key pivot
• Long-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.8010)
• Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)
• May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance Zone

Support Levels

• Session lows support 0.7670
• 0.7660 Session lows
• 0.76 Psychological level
• 0.70696 All-Time Lows

GBP/USD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs

GBP/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

FOMC Levels to watch for GBPUSD:

Resistance Levels

• 2025 Highs 1.37840
• 2025 Highs resistance 1.3760 to 1.38
• 1.3850 to 1.39 2021 Resistance

Support Levels

• Resistance turned pivot at the 1.36 zone
• December Resistance turned Support 1.35680 to 1.36
• Key Support 1.3450 to 1.34650

USD/CAD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs

USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView

Levels to watch for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• 1.3650 to 1.3770 December Pivot
• 1.3750 Pivotal Resistance
• 1.38 Handle Resistance +/- 150 pips

Support Levels

• Session lows 1.35960
• 1.3565 2025 lows
• 1.3550 to 1.3570 Main 2025 Support
• 1.34 Next Main Support

Safe Trades as the FOMC approaches!

• The Fed is facing increasing political pressure, and a pause in rate cuts has become a tool to defend its institutional independence.
• The labour market remains stable but fragile, supporting a cautious Fed stance despite inflation staying above target.
• Futures markets do not expect further rate cuts in the coming months, with meaningful easing priced in only from mid year.
• The risk of a loss of confidence in the US dollar is rising, potentially leading to a self reinforcing depreciation if the Fed’s credibility is undermined.

The US policy interest rate and core inflation measures in the United States (CPI and PCE year on year), source: Bloomberg

Rising political pressure on the Fed

The Federal Reserve is currently operating in an increasingly tense political environment. Pressure from the administration for further and substantial interest rate cuts has continued to build, turning monetary policy into a political battleground. This conflict recently intensified with legal action being taken against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, widely interpreted as an attempt to exert direct pressure on the central bank’s leadership. Powell’s unusually firm and public response suggests that the Fed is not prepared to yield easily. In this context, a pause in rate cuts can serve not only as a policy decision but also as a visible signal of institutional independence.

Maintaining unity among policymakers will be essential in this phase. That task may prove difficult, given the expected dissenting vote from Governor Miran, who has consistently argued for aggressive rate cuts, and increasingly open signals from Governor Bowman in favour of lower interest rates.

No rate cut at the upcoming meeting

Against this backdrop, the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve is very likely to end with interest rates left unchanged. The Fed has for some time signalled its readiness to pause after three consecutive rate cuts implemented in January. This would leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent. Since the beginning of 2024, rates have been reduced by a total of 175 basis points.

According to Powell and many other policymakers, interest rates are now relatively close to a neutral level. This assessment supports a wait and see approach, allowing the Fed to rely more heavily on incoming data before committing to further policy adjustments.

Fed policy expectations priced in by the futures market

The federal funds futures market is also aligned in its assessment of the likelihood of changes to monetary policy parameters at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. Market pricing clearly indicates that the probability of another rate cut in January is very low. The chances of such a move in March and April are also limited. It is only in June that the market begins to see meaningful odds of a further easing of monetary conditions.

Market pricing of the future path of US interest rates, source: Bloomberg

Labour market in the spotlight

The labour market has become a central focus of the Fed’s assessment. Despite solid economic growth last year, employment momentum has clearly weakened. Layoffs in federal agencies have added to this slowdown. At the same time, while private companies have largely avoided large scale redundancies, they have also shown little appetite for new hiring.

This combination has kept the labour market broadly stable, but the balance remains fragile. In the event of an economic slowdown, conditions could deteriorate quickly. Seen from this perspective, the recent rate cuts, despite inflation remaining above the 2 per cent target, can be interpreted as insurance against a sharper downturn rather than a response to immediate weakness.

Recent data offer temporary relief

So far, recent labour market data have not confirmed fears of further deterioration. In both November and December, more than 50,000 new jobs were created each month, which was sufficient to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate. This gives the Fed time to assess whether this trend continues at the start of the new year.

In parallel, more up to date inflation data will become available in the coming months. This includes the release of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, whose publication had been delayed due to last year’s government shutdown. These data will be crucial in shaping expectations for the next phase of monetary policy.

When markets stop believing: the rising risk of a self-reinforcing dollar sell off

The current situation in the foreign exchange market clearly highlights a risk that was repeatedly flagged already last year. This risk appears to be particularly underestimated by proponents of the so called “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy, which is based on the belief that President Trump ultimately always backs away from his most confrontational decisions. The problem, however, is that given the unpredictable and often chaotic nature of policy making under the current US administration, there is a genuine danger that markets cross a threshold beyond which a loss of confidence becomes difficult to reverse.

From an investor’s perspective, this implies the risk of entering a phase in which even later attempts to soften the political stance will no longer be sufficient to halt negative market dynamics. In other words, markets may stop responding to deescalatory gestures if they are perceived as too late or lacking credibility.

Among the potential “critical points” long discussed are the risk of the US dollar losing its safe-haven status and a perceived erosion of the Federal Reserve’s independence in the eyes of market participants. If investors begin to seriously price in a scenario in which these pillars are permanently weakened, dollar depreciation could take on a self reinforcing character. In such an environment, even a retreat from the most controversial policy actions may fail to restore stability, resulting in a deeper and more persistent weakening of the US currency.

Recent market developments suggest that this scenario is becoming increasingly plausible. President Trump has indeed attempted to deescalate tensions related to Greenland by stepping back from tariff threats against parts of the European Union, which provided the dollar with only a brief period of relief. At present, downward pressure on the USD has intensified again, underscoring that ad hoc measures are insufficient to rebuild damaged investor confidence. A break above 1.19 in EUR/USD now appears highly likely.

EUR/USD has moved back into its medium-term upward channel. The declines seen in late December 2025 and early January proved to be only a temporary episode that briefly altered the direction of price action. For now, the uptrend in the main currency pair appears to remain intact.

EUR/USD exchange rate chart, daily data, source: TradingView

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of DXY. We presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the decline from 21 November 2025 high unfolded as an impulse structure. And showed a lower low favored more downside extension to take place. Therefore, we advised members not to buy the US dollar & sell the bounces in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Based on Elliott wave hedging area looking to get 3 wave reaction lower at least. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

DXY 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1.22.2026

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave chart from the 1.22.2026 Asia update. In which, the decline to $98.24 low ended in wave ((i)) as an impulse structure. Up from there, the US dollar made a bounce higher in wave ((ii)) to correct that cycle. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure & managed to reach the extreme equal legs area at $98.84- $99.13. From there, market makers agrees for the minimum reaction lower to take place.

DXY 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 1.26.2026

This is the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from 1.26.2026 NY update. In which the DXY is showing a strong reaction lower taking place, right after ending the correction within the equal legs area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the short position. Since then, the index has already made a new low below September 2025 low confirming the next leg lower.

• The EURUSD rally has solid foundations.
• Gold is insurance against Trump’s policies.

The dollar index returned to last year’s lower bound, which we had not seen since 2022. The drivers are investment portfolio diversification, concerns about the US economic growth slowdown, rumours of FX interventions and active selling by carry-traders. With the weakening of the dollar and the interest rate differential across the eight most liquid emerging-market currencies, this strategy yielded 18% last year. The best result since 2009.

Since the beginning of the year, the strategy has already yielded 1.3%. According to Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup, the carry trade will continue to work effectively in 2026. They advise choosing currencies of countries with tight monetary policy, high interest rates and trustworthy central banks.

The US dollar is under pressure from the rotation of investment portfolios away from American assets. By the end of the week on January 21st, capital outflows from ETFs focused on these assets amounted to $17 billion. There are inflows into Europe and Japan, but they are not comparable to those into emerging markets. Specialised exchange-traded funds working with these assets have attracted $134 billion since the beginning of January, which is the best start since 2012.

Rumours of another government shutdown are contributing to the decline in the USD index. Polymarket estimates the chances of such an outcome at 78%. This has risen significantly following the public and Democrats’ reaction to the incidents in Minneapolis, which has intensified criticism of Donald Trump’s anti-immigration policy. A shutdown could slow US GDP growth and lead to a faster-than-expected return to monetary easing by the Fed.

Rumours that the US and Japan will conduct coordinated currency intervention to weaken the greenback and strengthen the yen are adding fuel to the EURUSD rally. Recently, Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that there is no connection between the exchange rate and the “strong dollar policy”. The White House is keen to weaken the US currency to boost the competitiveness of companies.

In this environment, it should come as no surprise that gold has soared to historic highs. There is growing talk in the market that the precious metal has turned from a hedge against inflation into insurance against Donald Trump’s policies.

USDJPY remains in a steep fall for the third consecutive day (down almost 4%) with speculations that intervention may be behind the move, along with increased safe-haven demand and month-end flows.

Fresh extension lower on Tuesday broke through significant supports at 153.62 (the base of thick ascending daily Ichimoku cloud / 100 DMA) and cracked Fibo 50% retracement of 146.58/159.45 upleg (153.01).

Daily technical studies show strong negative momentum and MAs above the price and turning south that supports current action.

Broken cloud base/100 DMA reverted to significant resistance which should ideally cap and keep fresh bears in play for firm break of 153.01 that would expose targets at 151.50 (Fibo 61.8%) and 150.20/00 (bull-trendline / psychological) in extension.

Res: 153.62; 154.00; 154.53; 155.61.
Sup: 152.15; 151.50; 150.20; 150.00.