Sample Category Title

The Euro keeps firm tone and holds near fresh multi-month high (1.1907, posted on Monday) following last week’s strong rally and gap-higher opening at the start of this week.

Weak dollar with signals of possible deeper drop, was mainly behind the latest advance.

Friday’s close above broken Fibo 76.4% of 1.1918/1.1468 (1.1812) confirmed firm bullish stance.

Monday’s action, despite opening with gap-higher, showed signs of hesitation on approach to key barrier at 1.1918 (2025 peak, the highest since June 2021), due to significance of resistance, as well as overbought daily studies, but fresh strength on Tuesday sidelined concerns about potential pause, on push through 1.1918 pivot.

Daily close above this level is needed to confirm signal and fully expose next strong barriers at 1.1950 (200MMA); 1.1984 (bear-trendline connecting peaks of 2018 and 2021) and 1.2000 (psychological).

Multiple daily MAs bull-crosses and very strong positive momentum, support scenario, but overbought conditions require caution.

Consolidative/corrective action should hold above 1.1850 (today’s low / broken upper boundary of bull-channel) to keep larger bulls in play.

Res: 1.1950; 1.1984; 1.2000; 1.2025.
Sup: 1.1900; 1.1850; 1.1812; 1.1760.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9206; (P) 0.9219; (R1) 0.9244; More....

EUR/CHF's fall resumed after brief consolidations. Break of 0.9178 suggests larger down trend resumption too. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 161.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143. Firm break there will target 261.8% projection at 0.9017. On the upside, above 0.9235 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, another rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9350) keeps outlook bearish. Downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9178 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3682; (P) 1.3701; (R1) 1.3730; More...

USD/CAD's fall resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.3538 low. Firm break there resume whole whole fall from 1.4971. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. On the upside, above 1.3738 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6902; (P) 0.6922; (R1) 0.6937; More...

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally is part of the up trend form 0.5913 and should target 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next. On the downside, below 0.6901 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

US consumer confidence suffered a sharp setback in January, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunging -9.7 points to 94.5. The drop pushed confidence to its lowest level since 2014, falling even below levels seen during the pandemic, and marking one of the steepest monthly declines in recent years.

The deterioration was broad-based. Present Situation Index slid -9.9 points to 113.7, while the forward-looking Expectations Index fell -9.5 points to 65.1. The latter is particularly alarming, as readings below 80 have historically been associated with recessions ahead.

According to Dana M. Peterson, confidence “collapsed in January” as concerns about both current conditions and the outlook intensified. She noted that all five components of the index weakened, dragging the headline measure to its lowest level since May 2014.

Peterson added that consumer comments remained heavily skewed toward pessimism. Inflation pressures, especially food, fuel, and energy costs, dominated responses, while mentions of tariffs, trade, politics, and labor market concerns increased. References to health insurance and war also edged higher, reinforcing the picture of households growing more anxious on multiple fronts.

Fulll US consumer confidence release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1842; (P) 1.1874; (R1) 1.1914; More….

EUR/USD's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside, with focus on 1.2000 key psychological level. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 38.2% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1917 from 1.1576 at 1.3434. On the downside, below 1.1849 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1443) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.25841. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3644; (P) 1.3678; (R1) 1.3714; More...

GBP/USD's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 1.3787 resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.3008 to 1.3567 from 1.3342 at 1.3901. On the downside, below 1.3662 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But retreat should be contained by 1.3567 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). That might have completed at 1.3008 already. Firm break of 1.3787 will confirm up trend resumption. Next target is 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3008 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.23; (P) 154.29; (R1) 155.27; More...

USD/JPY's fall extends lower today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current decline from 159.44 is seen as correcting the rise from 139.87, and should target 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside above 154.86 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it is reversing whole rise from 139.87. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.35) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7736; (P) 0.7765; (R1) 0.7799; More….

USD/CHF's fall resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall is part of the long term down trend and should target 0.7382 projection level next. On the upside, above 0.7283 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.7860 support turned resistance holds, in case of another recovery.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8184) holds.

The brief reprieve for Dollar has already faded. As markets move into the US session, the greenback is once again under broad selling pressure, undoing the tentative stabilization seen earlier and returning to a defensive footing. There is little in the way of fresh fundamental catalysts today. Instead, the renewed pressure appears to reflect positioning fatigue, with traders increasingly unwilling to wait until tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision before re-engaging against the Dollar.

Nevertheless, a key question is whether Fed policymakers deliver any slightly hawkish twist in language alongside the widely expected rate hold, and whether such a signal would be sufficient to spark a durable Dollar recovery. Even if the Fed leans marginally firmer, expectations for a sustained rebound remain muted. With geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US still elevated, markets may be reluctant to chase Dollar higher on nuance alone.

Also, the renewed strength in Swiss Franc, which is outperforming both Euro and Sterling, points to some underlying risk aversion rather than a purely Dollar-specific adjustment. Hence, while geopolitical noise has softened somewhat. Several developments continue to hover in the background, capable of unsettling sentiment if mishandled.

In Europe, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to China is one such event to pay attention to. The trip, the first by a British leader in eight years, signals London’s desire to diversify partnerships and ease reliance on the US at a time of growing unpredictability. That sensitivity stems from recent precedent. After Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s China engagement, US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods should Ottawa proceed with a China trade deal. Similar rhetoric toward the UK cannot be ruled out.

A second focal point is Trump’s response to the India–EU free trade agreement. The "Mother of All Deal", announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and set to be detailed alongside President Ursula von der Leyen, represents a major step in global trade integration outside US-led frameworks. That sense of fragmentation was echoed by German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche, who warned that trusted alliances are fraying, forcing nations to balance cooperation with the pursuit of new partners in a more uncertain world.

In FX markets, Dollar is currently the weakest performer on the day, followed by Loonie and Kiwi. Swiss Franc leads, with Yen and Aussie also firm. Euro and Sterling sit in the middle. Aussie stands out as a potential mover in the next session. With Australian CPI due shortly.

In Europe at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.69%. DAX is down -0.11%. CAC is up 0.36%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.036 at 4.534. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.013 at 2.885. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.85%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.35%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.18%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.28%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.04 to 2.288.

Australia NAB business survey reinforces solid backdrop for RBA

Australia’s NAB business survey showed a modest but broad-based improvement in December, pointing to resilient momentum into year-end. Business Confidence edged up from 2 to 3, while Business Conditions rose from 7 to 9.

The details underline that improvement. Trading conditions climbed from 13 to 16, while profitability rose from 4 to 7. Employment conditions were unchanged at 4, suggesting hiring demand remains steady rather than accelerating. Capacity utilisation eased slightly to 83.2%, down from its recent peak but still well above its long-run average.

Cost pressures also edged higher, with purchase costs rising from 1.3% to 1.4% in quarterly equivalent terms, labour costs from 1.5% to 1.8%, and product prices from 0.6% to 0.9%, even as retail price growth slowed to 0.4% from 0.8% in November.

Overall, the survey suggests the economy ended the year on a firm footing, with most indicators sitting modestly above late-Q3 levels. Meanwhile, NAB noted that for the RBA, the small pullback in capacity utilisation is unlikely to materially ease concerns that the economy remains close to capacity.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7736; (P) 0.7765; (R1) 0.7799; More….

USD/CHF's fall resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall is part of the long term down trend and should target 0.7382 projection level next. On the upside, above 0.7283 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.7860 support turned resistance holds, in case of another recovery.

In the bigger picture, larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and resuming. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8184) holds.