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Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8029 support holds. Firm break of 0.8205 will extend the rally from 0.7603 to 161.8% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8469. However, decisive break of 0.8029 will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 0.7912).

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213. Decisive break will argue that USD/CHF is reversing the medium term trend, and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8213 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.7603 at a later stage.

Further rise is expected in AUD/USD as long as 0.7037 support holds. Sustained break of 100% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921 at 0.7083 could prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.7183. On the downside, below 0.7037 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6921 instead.

In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a correction to rise from 0.5913 only. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout.

USD/CAD's decline from 1.4247 resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the downside. Break of the falling channel fall suggests downside acceleration, and affirm the case that rebound from 1.3480 has completed with three waves up to 1.4247. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3773. On the upside, above 1.3957 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rejection below 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290 suggests that the pattern from 1.4791 medium term is still extending. Firm break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3883) will solidify this case, and bring deeper decline through 1.3480 low.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point and some more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, above 215.36 will extend the rebound from 209.55 to 61.8% retracement of 219.56 to 209.55 at 215.73. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 219.56 high. On the downside, below 213.28 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, focus is on 55 W EMA (now at 209.10). Strong rebound from there will keep the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) intact. Another rally is expected through 219.56 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and some more consolations could be seen. Above 183.94 will extend the rebound from 179.34 to 61.8% retracement of 187.93 to 179.34 at 184.64. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 187.93 high. On the downside, below 182.67 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 55 W EMA (now at 180.42). Strong rebound from there will indicate that the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. That would set up another rally through 187.93 to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. While rebound from 0.9453 might extend, strong resistance should be seen from 0.8610 support turned resistance to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.8528 support will argue that the corrective rebound from 0.8453 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting this low. However, firm break of 0.8610 will bring stronger rally to falling channel resistance (now at 0.8658).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold.

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias stays neutral. Corrective pattern from 1.6108 (or 1.6125) is still extending. On the upside, above 1.6530 will target 1.6617 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.6250 will bring deeper fall back to retest 1.6108 low.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

EUR/CHF's rally continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379 will carry larger bullish implications, and extend the rise from 0.8979 to 138.2% projection at 0.9488. On the downside, below 0.9362 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish divergence condition in W MACD, rise from 0.8979 medium term bottom should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9264 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

Swiss economy accelerated sharply in Q2, with sport-event-adjusted real GDP growth rising from 0.4% to an estimated 1.5% q/q, according to SECO’s flash estimate. That would mark strongest quarterly expansion since 2021 based on current series. SECO said industrial sector made largest contribution to growth, driven particularly by chemicals and pharmaceuticals, while services also expanded overall.

Strength extends rebound already visible in Q1, when manufacturing grew 1.5% q/q after contracting 3.0% in Q4. But Q2 flash provides no detailed sector breakdown beyond SECO’s broad assessment, so it is too early to judge how widely expansion spread beyond chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Flash estimate is also based partly on estimated inputs and may be revised when full quarterly GDP data are released.

Still, headline result points to considerably stronger Swiss growth momentum than previously evident. A 1.5% quarterly expansion led by industry reduces concern that economy is being materially constrained by current financial conditions and gives SNB less reason to respond to growth weakness. Key question for final release will be whether exceptional industrial contribution was accompanied by broad gains elsewhere or whether Q2 strength was concentrated in a narrow group of export-heavy sectors.

Key Takeaways

• Swiss sport-event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated from 0.4% to an estimated 1.5% q/q in Q2, potentially strongest quarterly expansion since 2021.
• Industry made largest contribution, led especially by chemicals and pharmaceuticals, while services also expanded.
• Q2 strength builds on manufacturing rebound already seen in Q1, when output rose 1.5% after a 3.0% contraction in Q4.
• Flash estimate is based on incomplete early data and may be revised, while detailed sector breakdown is not yet available.
• Headline result points to a much stronger Swiss growth backdrop, reducing concern that economy is being materially constrained by current financial conditions.
• For SNB, stronger growth lowers urgency to respond to economic weakness, though final policy implications depend on whether expansion proves broad based rather than concentrated in pharma-led industry.

Full Swiss Q2 GDP flash release here.

Markets

US Treasuries outperformed German Bunds and UK Gilts yesterday. The July wholesale price report was close to consensus and not outspokenly soft (0% M/M & 4.7% Y/Y for headline; 0.2% M/M & 4.2% Y/Y for core), but investors took the cumulative effect of last Friday's weak payrolls and Wednesday's tame CPI report into account. The key message probably is that inflation is not re-accelerating. If upside inflation risks don't materialize, it might keep the Fed at bay for longer. That seems to be the current market reasoning at least. US yields shed 4.5 bps (30-yr) to 6.5 bps (5-yr) as September rate hike bets are further scaled down from 50% to 33%. Chicago Fed Goolsbee (non-voter) later more or less confirmed this view. He said that inflation readings for a couple of months have been getting a little bit better even though inflation is still too high. Richmond Fed Barkin (non-voter) also found some comfort in recent readings but acknowledged the risk of embedded price pressures. He differentiates between shocks (tariffs, Iran war) which should pass and supply chain challenges or the AI boom which could generate more persistent pressures. "Inflation has been too high for too long, risking an upward shift in the price expectations of firms and consumers. If true, this argument suggests help is needed to bring inflation all the way back down to target." The US Treasury ended its mid-month refinancing operation with a $25bn 30-yr Bond auction which tailed slightly, but had an average bid-cover. The auction yield (5.216%) was the highest since 2001. Overall, this week's 10-yr Note and 30-yr Bond sales managed to lure investors despite worries over the US fiscal trajectory which shows in the rising trend of real yields (> inflation expectations). On FX markets, the US Treasuries' outperformance didn't weigh on the dollar. EUR/USD closed nearly unchanged at 1.1528. JPY failed to capitalize on a Bloomberg report that the Japanese government supports faster BoJ tightening (September or October). Sterling couldn't benefit from a solid Q2 GDP figure. US stock markets profited from the correction on bond markets with key indices gaining 0.15% (Dow) to 0.80% (Nasdaq).

Today's eco calendar contains July US retail sales and August University of Michigan consumer confidence (including key short term & long term inflation components). We think the data will be interpreted through the lens of the past couple of days. Anything bar significant upside surprises will suffice to keep rate hike pricing in check. Volatility in energy prices remains a wildcard with Brent crude ($88/b) holding near the $90/b threshold as the US/Iran stalemate persists.

News & Views

The number of Australian new home loans fell by 5.4% Q/Q in Q2 2026 in their biggest drop since end 2022. The value of total new home loans fell 5.2% Q/Q, after a 3.4% fall in the previous quarter. Changes to negative gearing, an RBA rate hike (May) and capital gains tax in the May Budget all had an impact. They suggest that efforts to tame the red-hot housing market are having an effect. Prices appear to have peaked in Sydney and Melbourne in November of last year with other major cities and regions showing price falls since March. Investor loans drove the fall in new home loans, dropping by 8.6% Q/Q. Annually, growth in investor loans slowed from 19.4% to 2.8%. The number of new owner-occupier loans fell 3.3% Q/Q (-2,745 loans), following a 3.8% fall in the previous quarter. Lending to owner occupiers was 1.6% lower than a year ago, marking the first annual fall since Q3 2023. Owner occupier first home buyer loans also fell 2.9%. Developments on the housing market are one of the considerations of the Reserve Bank of Australia in determining whether or not a final rate hike is still needed. A dovish RBA statement was balanced by a more hawkish press conference by RBA governor Bullock earlier this week. When it comes to the housing market, RBA assistant governor Kent yesterday said that its softening contributed to financial conditions potentially being a bit more restrictive than otherwise: "All else equal, these changes will tend to reduce the extent to which monetary policy needs to constrain the growth in aggregate demand to help bring inflation back to the RBA's target." The market implied probability of final RBA rate hike (early next year) peaks at 63%.