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The stalled US-Iran negotiations have shifted global "Fear Trade" focus toward the Strait of Hormuz’s role as a critical fertilizer bottleneck. With 35% of global Urea exports at risk, benchmark prices have surged, creating a "pincer effect" for the Australian Dollar. Despite high commodity prices, rising input costs for the 2026 winter crop are neutralizing the AUD’s traditional commodity boost, while bolstering the US Dollar’s "safe-haven" status as Fed rate hike odds jump to 30%.

The Hormuz Bottleneck: Beyond Oil

While oil prices are staying in consolidations, the market is waking up to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for the agricultural complex. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran account for nearly one-third of the world’s seaborne Urea. The current stalemate has turned Urea into a front-page risk factor, with benchmark NOLA prices jumping 25-30% since late February.

This is a "double whammy" for the sector: even if shipping remains open, the skyrocketing cost of natural gas—the primary feedstock for nitrogen—is creating an alarming price floor for global food production.

The "Pincer Effect" on the Aussie Dollar

For the AUD, the "fertilizer-to-food" pipeline has turned toxic. Normally, high commodity prices are a tailwind for the Aussie, but the current crisis is squeezing farmer margins to the breaking point.

As Australia prepares for the 2026 winter crop, the prohibitive cost of seeding could lead to significantly lower export volumes later this year. With the "make or break" window closing in late May, the AUD has become the week's worst performer, lagging behind even its commodity peers, the Loonie and Kiwi.

Fed Pivot: From Easing to Tightening?

On the other hand, the impact on the US interest rate trajectory is the opposite. Futures markets have effectively priced out any hope for a Fed rate cut in 2026. Instead, the odds of a final rate hike by year-end have surged to nearly 30%.

As global supply chains fracture, Dollar is benefiting from its relative self-sufficiency in nitrogen production (driven by domestic shale gas), positioning the greenback as the "cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry."

The "Winners vs. Losers"

Market activity today reflects a pause in momentum in currencies. Major FX pairs are largely confined within yesterday's ranges. For the week so far, Dollar is gaining relative strength as investors gravitate toward economies with greater energy and production self-sufficiency. In contrast, commodity currencies are failing to benefit from higher prices. Aussie is particularly weak, as rising fertilizer and fuel costs threaten to erode agricultural profitability and potentially reduce future export volumes.

In Asian, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.78%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.03%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.88%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.20%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.02 at 2.275. Overnight, DOW rose 0.66%. S&P 500 rose 0.54%. NASDAQ rose 0.77%. 10-year yield fell -0.064 to 4.328.

Silver Defies 'Cried Wolf' Headlines: Why Bullish MACD Signals Signals Recovery Towards $80

Silver is exhibiting a classic "Cried Wolf" effect. Despite Tehran’s blunt rejection of the latest 15-point peace proposal, Silver has refused to buckle, maintaining a resilient floor above $70. Read more.

RBA Warns of 'Restrictive' Shift: Why Rising Neutral Rates and Petrol Shocks Could Trigger More Hikes

Assistant Governor Christopher Kent just delivered a sobering update on the RBA’s path forward. While global uncertainty usually cools rates, the "Supply Shock" from the Middle East is having the opposite effect—pushing Neutral Rates higher and keeping the pressure on Australian households. Read more.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6925; (P) 0.6965; (R1) 0.6987; More...

AUD/USD continues to press 0.6943 key support but there is no clean break yet. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6943 should confirm rejection by 0.7206 key fibonacci resistance. That would set up deeper correction to the whole up trend from 0.5913, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. Nevertheless, break of 0.7061 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 0.7187 high first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will pave the way back to 0.8006. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Key Highlights

• Gold started a recovery wave from the $4,100 zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,850 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil started a consolidation phase below the $95 and $98 resistance levels.
• Bitcoin could start a fresh increase if it settles above $72,500.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold finally found some support near $4,100 against the US Dollar. The price started a decent recovery wave above $4,300 and $4,400.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price was able to climb above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,419 swing high to the $4,098 low. However, the price is still well below the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

On the upside, immediate resistance is $4,600. The next major resistance sits near $4,750 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,419 swing high to the $4,098 low.

The main resistance could be near the trend line at $4,850. A clear move above $4,850 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $5,000 or the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), above which the price could test $5,200.

If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $4,435 level. The first major support sits at $4,300, below which the price might slide to $4,120.

The main support sits at $4,000. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,880 or even $3,850 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price remained supported above $80 and might start a fresh increase if it settles above $95.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 210K, versus 205K previous.

Silver prices are showing remarkable resilience, holding a firm floor above $70 despite Iran’s rejection of a 15-point proposal from the Trump administration. While momentum has stalled at the $74.50 resistance, the lack of a sell-off suggests "headline fatigue" has set in. Traders are now ignoring verbal rhetoric in favor of technical signals, specifically a bullish MACD convergence that points toward an eventual rally to around $79, where it would be another key psychological resistance at $80.

The "Cried Wolf" Effect: Why Iran News Failed to Move Silver

Throughout this week, the market has been caught in a dizzying cycle of conflicting reports. While Washington floats "positive talks," Tehran’s state media dismisses them as "psychological warfare." The result? Silver traders have stopped reacting to words.

Despite the peace deal rejection, Silver is refusing to fall back toward the $60.97 low established earlier this week. This "sideways resilience" at $72 indicates that the market is no longer pricing in verbal escalations, waiting instead for physical movements—such as a ground move by the 82nd Airborne or a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Oil Anchor: Brent at $100

Silver’s current lack of momentum is closely mirrored in the energy markets. Brent Crude remains locked in a tight range around the $100 psychological level. Until Oil finds a clear directional trigger, Silver is likely to continue its consolidation between $70 and $75.

Technical Outlook: The Path to 79

Technically, the picture remains skewed to the upside. The 4H MACD shows a clear bullish convergence, suggesting the corrective pattern from the 121.83 high is likely complete with three waves down to 60.97, just ahead of 60 psychological level. Firm break of 74.52 resistance (at 55 4H EMA at 74.30) will confirm short term bottoming. That would clear the path for further rally towards 55 D EMA (now at 79.11), where it will meet another key psychological at 80.

Table: Silver Technical Decision Zone

RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned today that the prolonged Middle East conflict is pushing Australia’s "neutral" interest rate higher, signaling a potentially more aggressive path for the cash rate. Despite global uncertainty usually cooling markets, Kent noted that persistent supply shocks in energy are forcing a "tighter stance of monetary policy" to prevent long-term inflation expectations from spiraling.

The Middle East "Wealth Tax"

In a sobering assessment of the ongoing regional conflict, Kent highlighted that the surge in oil and natural gas prices is effectively making Australians "all poorer." He noted that while the RBA cannot change the supply of oil, it must react to the "material repricing of assets" caused by the war.

"A negative supply shock pushes up prices and leads to weaker economic activity, making us all poorer. Central banks cannot change that. But they can ensure that the initial rise in prices does not lead to a rise in longer term inflationary expectations," he said.

The Neutral Rate Reassessment

The core of Kent's message was a warning to those expecting rate cuts. He explained that the conflict in the Middle East creates two countervailing forces, but the risk to inflation expectations is currently winning the tug-of-war.

"This could both push short-run neutral rates higher and necessitate a more restrictive stance of policy. Indeed, financial market participants have revised up their expectations of monetary policy rates in Australia," he said.

Ensuring "Stable Inflation"

Kent concluded by reaffirming the Board's commitment to its medium-term targets, even if the "supply shock" makes the path more difficult. He emphasized that the RBA will not allow temporary price spikes to become a permanent fixture of the Australian economy.

Full speech of RBA's Kent here.

• US Stock Benchmarks attempt a continued rebound in the current session, with the narrative seemingly easing in recent days
• After the previous session's stalling progress, Equities pursue their cautious rebound
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US Stock benchmarks are still attempting to price a cautious but seemingly better narrative around the Middle East conflict into another rebound in today's session.

This continues the theme that had shaken Markets in Monday's chaotic, but more positive weekly open: The War doesn't seem to be taking a turn for the worse, hinting at what could really be a four to five-week-long conflict.

It would be almost too good to be true to see Donald Trump make good on his words, having announced such a deadline to the ceaseless strikes on Islamic regime targets in Iran.

The current War isn't faring well with the American public, and right ahead of the Midterms coming up in November, the President surely doesn't want to aggravate his case.

But during wartime, each headline has to be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly with Iran reportedly rejecting Trump's 15-point plan to add their own demands – They are particularly keen on conserving their long-range ballistic missile capabilities, but the world knows how dangerous they have been, so expect this to be a zone of contention.

We should learn more on these developments by Friday.

Dow Jones – WTI Inverted Correlation sustains – Source: TradingView

Despite all the uncertainty, traders should focus more on what is happening in front of them: The Oil-Stocks inverse correlation is the only clear Market development since the beginning of the month; Tracking the commodity will act as a guide to navigate this clouded environment (while headlines do the exact opposite).

WTI Oil had gapped lower in recent sessions and held a lower trajectory since, but has stalled its descent around the $88 Level, and this has weighed on Stock Markets since the mid-session.

(Don't forget to check out our recent WTI Analysis to have a better guess of where Support and resistance can occur, as long as no real solution is found.

In today's action, all Stock Indexes are moving together with no clear outperformer – See more just below.

Let's spot where today's cautiously optimistic price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the Stock Market (12:17 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 25, 2026

The rebound hasn't seen formed any consistent pattern since Monday, except for the previous session's Manufacturing outperformance – Process Industries and Pharmaceuticals are the only sectors flashing green in today's session.

The rest is broadly chaotic, so for individual Stock traders, the best is to look for local ranges to play.

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView

For the first time since February 26, the Dow Jones is trading above its 4H 50-period Moving Average, a striking progress particularly with the consistent downtrend that had developed since.

Combining with a weak, but persistent exit from the March bear channel, it seems that the DJIA is only a few positive headlines from a rebound – 48,000 would be a decent target in that event – Above 48,000, expect the rebound to hold towards 50,000.

The only issue is that optimism in such an environment could prove short-lasted, hence with bullish views in the Market, make sure that your size is under control to allow for more flexibility in case things turn sour again.

Any session close below 46,300 would continue the downtrend.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)
• Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650
• Key Resistance at 48,000
• 48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistance

Support Levels

• 4H 50-period MA 46,437
• March 8 War lows Pivot 46,200 to 46,300.
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 (Monday lows)

Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq is actually looking more pessimistic than its elder, failing to persistently hold above 24,200 with its RSI actually turning bearish.

Breaking 24,150 could see a quick test of the 23,800 support; Even in the event of the rebound, it looks like the tech Index has less inherent strength and could lag on a rally.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 24,387 4H 50-period
• 24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)
• Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)

Support Levels

• February Support 24,150
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Morning lows: August 2025 next Support at 23,580 to 23,700
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 looks right in the middle between bullish and bearish; it remains the Index to trade if you prefer less brutal up-and-down swings.

As long as the price action remains above 6,580, the outlook isn't bearish, but not so bullish either:

Buyers will want a break above 6,650 to relaunch a bullish outlook.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Momentum Pivot 6,640 to 6,650
• 6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance
• 6,740 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800

Support Levels

• 6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom support
• 6,490 to 6,512 October lows
• 6,442 Morning Lows
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!

Platinum: ⬆️ Buy

• Platinum reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 2030.0

Platinum recently reversed up from the support zone between the round support level 1800.00 (low of wave A from February), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily hammer, which stopped the previous ABC correction (2) from the end of January.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Platinum can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 2030.0 (former support from February and March).

USDCAD: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCAD broke resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3900

USDCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 1.3725 (top of the previous wave A from the end of February) and 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 5 from January.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2).

USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 1.3900 (target price for the completion of the active C-wave).

EURUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURUSD reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.1450

EURUSD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance area between the resistance level 1.1635 (former support from January), resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous long-term ABC correction 4.

EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next support level 1.1450 (which has been reversing the price from last year).

Markets

ECB president Lagarde at the ECB Watchers Conference went into more detail on the central bank’s potential response to the energy shock. The strategy is based on three key principles. The first is to assess the nature, size and persistence of the shock before taking decisions on policy. The ECB must identify when higher energy costs risk spilling over into broad-based inflation – be it through indirect effects or through second-round effects via wages and inflation expectations. Lagarde admitted 2026 isn’t 2022 but its legacy lingers in the minds of consumers and businesses and this may prompt quicker pass-through effects. Yesterday’s PMIs are case in point. Secondly, the ECB focuses on risks – which may get non-linear – and not only the baseline. That translates into the third principle: having a set of options for how to respond, which depend on the intensity and duration of the shock and how it propagates. Lagarde then went on to point to three broad cases which, reading between the lines, basically correspond with the ECB’s baseline (A), adverse (B) and severe (C) scenario published last week. An energy shock limited in size and short-lived (A) would be looked through. In case of a shock leading to a large though not too-persistent overshoot of the 2% inflation target (B), some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted, also from a communication & signaling point of view. If inflation is expected to deviate significantly and persistently from target (C), the response must be appropriately forceful or persistent to prevent self-reinforcing mechanisms to kick in and risk a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. It is too soon to determine which scenario is prevailing, Lagarde noted. But in an echo to BoE’s Pill “fog of uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction” yesterday, the ECB president sounded resolute: “But we will not be paralyzed by hesitation: our commitment to delivering 2% inflation over the medium term is unconditional.”

Lagarde’s speech came against the backdrop of the US having ramped up diplomatic efforts to end the war with a 15-point proposal and a one-month ceasefire. Iran, however, already rejected the proposal. It has 5 conditions to begin talking about the end of the war, with “international recognition and guarantees of Iran’s sovereign authority over the Strait of Hormuz” probably not landing well in the US. Markets nevertheless take the optimistic view with stocks rebounding around 1.3% in Europe and 0.7-1.3% in the US. Brent oil fell towards the $100 barrier, down from $104.5 yesterday but up from intraday lows. European yields fell 6 bps across the curve at the open before entering a sideways trading range afterwards. Gilts hugely outperform with net daily changes varying between 8-12 bps despite above-consensus and -target February inflation numbers even before the Iran war erupted early March. The US curve bull flattens, showing declines up to 2.4 bps. Currency markets trade calm with a small US dollar bias. EUR/USD eases to sub 1.16, DXY moves higher towards 99.34. USD/JPY hovers around the recent highs just south of 160 (158.9 currently). Sterling treads water around EUR/GBP 0.865.

News & Views

In speech on purchasing power and the real cost of living in New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Paul Conway observes that New Zealand is an expensive country, with prices for many products well above the OECD average. Since the pandemic, prices overall have risen by 26%, with prices for some essentials increasing by much more. Income per person has increased by slightly more, suggesting little change in purchasing power. Before 2020, purchasing power of wages grew faster than the OECD average, supported by strong employment growth and favourable terms of trade. Currently wage purchasing power is around the OECD average, but about 20% below the average of the more advanced economies. Monetary policy can anchor prices but can’t make New Zealand more affordable on its own. Sustained gains in purchasing power require higher productivity. Indicators suggest that the quality of structural policies in parts of New Zealand’s framework lag behind OECD best practice. On the current monetary policy stance, Conway indicated that he still sees excess capacity in the economy. At the April 8 meeting, the RBNZ will assess how much it has to lean against the wind in terms of potential rate hikes going forward. Markets see the RBNZ starting rate hikes in summer (May only 30% discounted), which might accelerate later with OCR near 3% discounted around year end. The Kiwi dollar underperformed the Aussie dollar already before and after the conflict in the Middle East started. NZD/USD eased from a peak just below 0.61 end January to currently 0.582.