Sample Category Title

Markets are turning cautiously positive as hopes build around a potential ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the current supply-side shock. The tone has shifted from outright panic earlier in the week to a more measured phase of “probing for a bottom,” though conviction remains limited.

Oil remains the key anchor. Brent crude has eased back to around 100 level, suggesting that some war premium is being priced out. However, the move is tentative, reflecting that markets are not yet convinced a lasting resolution is imminent. Equities are responding more positively. Asian stock markets are rebounding as investors begin to price in the possibility of an “off-ramp” scenario, where tensions de-escalate and supply disruptions are reversed.

In contrast, currency markets are signaling greater skepticism. The performance profile still leans risk-off, with Aussie sitting at the bottom of the weekly ladder, followed by Kiwi and Loonie. On the other hand, Sterling is leading gains, with Euro and Yen also outperforming, while Dollar and Swiss Franc are holding in the middle.

This divergence highlights a key dynamic: while equities are pricing hope, FX markets remain focused on uncertainty and policy implications. The lack of alignment suggests that current optimism is still fragile and highly conditional.

At the center of the narrative is a reported 15-point ceasefire proposal from the US, delivered via Pakistani intermediaries. The plan outlines a one-month ceasefire designed to create a window for broader negotiations. For markets, the most critical element is the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would quickly alleviate supply constraints, reduce energy prices, and ease global inflation pressures. In exchange, the US is reportedly offering full relief from economic sanctions, signaling a willingness to pursue a diplomatic off-ramp even as military pressure remains in place.

However, the response from Iran has been dismissive. Officials have described the proposal as “negotiating with themselves,” maintaining a defiant stance and reiterating demands for reparations and guarantees against future strikes. At the same time, the military backdrop remains tense. The Pentagon continues to deploy additional forces to the region, including elements of the 82nd Airborne, underscoring that escalation risks have not been removed.

This dual-track dynamic—diplomacy alongside military buildup—keeps markets in a state of cautious balance. Until there is concrete progress, such as a confirmed reopening of Hormuz, the current optimism is likely to remain constrained.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 3.00%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.81%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.17%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.76%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.014 at 2.257. Overnight, DOW fell -0.18%. S&P 500 fell -0.37%. NASDAQ fell -0.84%. 10-year yield rose 0.058 to 4.392.

Gold Price Today: Bounce Faces ‘Sell-the-Rally’ Test at 4,600–4,800 Resistance Cluster

Gold price today rebounds on short covering but faces a key 4600–4800 resistance cluster, with the move seen as corrective in a sell-the-rally environment. Read More.

Australia Inflation Eases Pre-War, RBA Still Faces Sticky Core Pressures

Pre-war data show modest easing in Australia inflation, though underlying pressures remain firm and could rise again as energy costs increase. Read more.

Fed Rate Cuts on Hold as Barr Seeks Clear Inflation Progress

Fed Governor Michael Barr signaled that rate cuts remain on hold, stressing the need for clear evidence that inflation is sustainably declining, with rising oil prices posing fresh risks. Read more.

Interest Rate Path May Shift as Fed's Goolsbee Warns of New Inflation Shock

Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned that a new energy-driven inflation shock could alter the interest rate path, stressing that rate cuts depend on clear progress toward 2% inflation. Read more.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6528; (P) 1.6600; (R1) 1.6664; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.6125 short term bottom should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6757). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053. Nevertheless, below 1.6448 minor support will suggest that the recovery has completed, and bring retest of 1.6125 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7245) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Gold’s rebound is gaining some traction today as broader financial markets stabilize, but the move is still seen as corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal. The recovery follows a sharp and stretched selloff earlier this week, with price action below 4,100 triggering what appears to have been a near-term exhaustion point.

The initial lift has been driven largely by positioning. Profit-taking on short positions has provided the base for the rebound, rather than fresh bullish demand. Some support has also come from cautious optimism around de-escalation in the Middle East after the US announced a five-day postponement of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Technical factors have also played a role. The 4,000 level has emerged as a strong support zone, combining psychological significance with a key technical cluster. Bargain hunting interest around this level helped stabilize the market and reinforced the near-term floor.

However, the upside is now approaching a critical resistance “traffic jam” between 4,600 and 4,800. This zone includes 38.2% retracement of 5,419.02 to 4,098.45 at 4,602.90, as well as 55 4H EMA near 4,725. Together, these levels create a dense resistance band that is likely to cap further gains.

Importantly, this is also where short-term traders who bought into the rebound are likely to take profits. If selling pressure emerges in this zone, it would confirm that the market remains in a “sell-the-rally” regime rather than shifting to a “buy-the-dip” environment.

As long as this resistance holds, the broader outlook remains cautious. Another leg lower cannot be ruled out, but the 4,000 level, with 38.2% retracement of 1,614.60 (2022 low) to 5,598.38 (Jan high) at 4,076.57, should continue to act as a strong floor barring a major escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Only a firm break above 4,800 would signal that a more meaningful bullish reversal is underway. Such a move would likely indicate that macro risks—particularly related to energy and geopolitics—are easing.

Silver (XAGUSD) reached an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29, 2026, before entering a larger corrective phase. The decline has unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, a common corrective pattern in technical analysis. Wave a concluded at $71.31, while wave b terminated at $96.39. The market is now progressing through wave c, which is developing as an impulse Elliott Wave.

From the end of wave b, wave ((1)) finished at $77.92, followed by a rally in wave ((2)) that reached $90.09. The metal then extended lower in wave ((3)), which subdivided into five distinct waves. Within this sequence, wave (1) ended at $77.03, wave (2) at $82.53, wave (3) at $65.47, and wave (4) at $74.54. The final leg, wave (5), concluded at $60.95, thereby completing wave ((3)) at a higher degree.

At present, wave ((4)) is unfolding as a corrective rally. This move retraces the cycle that began from the March 10, 2026 high, before the market resumes its downward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $90.09 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in either three or seven swings. Such failure would confirm renewed downside pressure. The broader implication is that Silver remains vulnerable to further weakness once the current corrective rally exhausts itself.

Silver (XAGUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

XAGUSD Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHQyvSYmKt8

• Australia's annual CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% in February 2026, yet it remains above the RBA's target range.
• The AUD/USD pair is technically "coiled" within a tight trading range of 0.6980 and 0.7070.
• Near-term price direction will be dictated by US Dollar strength and geopolitical developments.
• Key levels to watch are a sustained bearish candle close below 0.6980 or a bullish breakout above 0.7070.

AUD/USD continues to struggle below the psychological 0.7000 handle following softer than expected CPI data. Market participants still seem to be erring on the side of caution with more rate hikes still expected from the RBA moving forward.

Soft CPI print fails to move the needle

Australia’s annual inflation rate showed signs of cooling in February 2026, dipping to 3.7%. This result was slightly lower than the 3.8% market forecast and the figures seen in the previous two months, though it remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2–3% target range.

Source: TradingEconomics

A significant driver of this slowdown was the easing of goods inflation, which dropped to 3.5% from 3.8% in January. This was largely fueled by a sharp decline in transport costs, particularly automotive fuel, which fell by 7.2%, a much steeper drop than the 2.7% decline recorded before the recent Middle East conflict. Other sectors contributing to the downward trend included:

• Alcohol and tobacco: Eased to 4.3%
• Education: Slowed to 4.8%
• Clothing: Eased to 4.9%
• Communication: Dropped to 0.8%

While several categories cooled, price growth remained persistent in other areas. Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages held steady at 3.1%, and financial services remained at 2.4%. Conversely, costs accelerated for recreation (4.0%) and housing, with the latter jumping to 7.3% from 6.8%. Services inflation remained unchanged at 3.9%.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, a notable shift from the 0.4% increase seen in January. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI, a key measure of underlying inflation edged down to 3.3%, coming in below both the previous figure and market expectations of 3.4%.

These latest numbers arrive at a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already pushed interest rates up to 4.10% to fight stubborn inflation.

The RBA is worried that current price hikes might lead to "second-round effects," such as a cycle where wages and prices keep pushing each other higher. Because inflation isn't dropping as fast as hoped, many experts now expect the bank to raise interest rates again in the near future.

This in part explains the lack of conviction by AUD/USD bears with the pair failing to find any sustainable downside push since breaching the 0.7000 handle.

The path forward for AUD/USD

Given the lack of high impact Australian data in the coming days, the US dollar and geopolitical developments will be the driving force behind any immediate moves.

The US Dollar has been supported by risk off sentiment since the start of the US-Iran war. News that diplomatic efforts are underway has boosted sentiment with rumors of talks between the two countries as early as Thursday.

If sentiment continues to improve and hopes of a ceasefire grows, the US Dollar could continue to lose steam and this in turn could send AUD/USD back above the 0.7000 level.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis - AUD/USD

Based on the four-hour (4H) AUD/USD chart, the pair is currently caught between fundamental inflation concerns and a clear technical squeeze.

Current Price Action: The "Squeeze"

The chart shows AUD/USD trading within a descending triangle or a narrowing wedge pattern. After a sharp rejection from the 0.7130 area mid-month, the pair has been making lower highs, constrained by a descending trendline.

• Key Resistance Zone: There is a heavy "death cross" forming with the 50-period SMA (0.7038), 100-period SMA (0.7052), and 200-period SMA (0.7063) all hovering just above the current price. This creates a dense ceiling of resistance between 0.7040 and 0.7070.
• Psychological Support: The price is currently dancing around the 0.70000 psychological level. While it dipped toward 0.6940 recently, it has clawed back to the parity line, suggesting some dip-buying is occurring.
• RSI Neutrality: The RSI is sitting at approximately 45.50, which is neutral. It isn't oversold yet, meaning there is room for a move in either direction once the pattern breaks.

AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, March 25, 2026

Source:TradingView.com

1. The Bearish Case (Breakdown)

If the RBA's 4.10% rate and the persistent 3.7% inflation data cause markets to fear a "hard landing" (economic slowdown), we could see a break below the recent support.

• Trigger: A sustained candle close below 0.6980.
• Targets: The first major target would be the recent swing low near 0.6940, followed by the long-term horizontal support at 0.6913.

2. The Bullish Case (Breakout)

If the market interprets the slight dip in inflation (3.7% vs 3.8%) as a sign that the RBA's hikes are finally working or if the RBA signals an aggressive hike to 4.35%, the Aussie could catch a bid.

• Trigger: A break and hold above the descending trendline and the cluster of SMAs (specifically above 0.7070).
• Targets: A successful breakout would likely see a quick move toward 0.7080, with a medium-term goal of retesting the March high at 0.7130.

Bottom Line: AUD/USD is coiled tightly. Until it breaks out of the 0.6980 – 0.7070 range, expect "choppy" sideways movement as the market digests the latest inflation data.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices corrected gains and tested the $85.00 support.
• Earlier, there was a break below a bullish trend line at $96.00 on the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD.
• Gold is now struggling and might extend losses below $4,200.
• EUR/USD started a consolidation phase above the 1.1500 support.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil prices rallied above $100 before correcting gains against the US Dollar. The price dipped below $98 and $95 to enter a short-term bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below a bullish trend line at $96.00. However, the bulls were active above $85.00 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). As a result, the price started a consolidation phase above $85.00.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $95.50 level since it coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $102.07 swing high to the $85.02 low.

The first key hurdle for the bulls could be $98.00. A close above $98.00 might send Oil prices toward $102.00. Any more gains might call for a test of $105.00 in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $89.00 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). The next support could be $85.00, below which the price could dive and test $82.00.

A daily close below $82.00 could open the doors for a larger decline. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a drop toward $76.00 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Looking at Gold, the bears remained in action, and they might soon aim for a fresh decline below the $4,200 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Import Price Index for Feb 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.5%, versus +0.2% previous.
• US Export Price Index for Feb 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.5%, versus +0.6% previous.

Australia’s inflation data for February showed modest cooling, though underlying pressures remain firm. Headline CPI was flat at 0.0% mom, below expectations of 0.1% mom, while annual inflation ticked down from 3.8% yoy to 3.7% yoy. The figures suggest that inflation is, at least, no longer accelerating, offering some relief for RBA policymakers.

However, core measures paint a more persistent picture. Trimmed mean CPI rose 0.2% mom, with the annual rate holding at 3.3% yoy for a third consecutive month. This stability in core inflation indicates that underlying price pressures are not easing meaningfully, despite the slight dip in headline numbers.

The composition of inflation also highlights ongoing concerns. Services inflation remained elevated at 3.9% yoy, outpacing goods inflation, which slowed from 3.8% yoy to 3.5% yoy. Key contributors included housing, food, and recreation, underscoring that domestic price pressures, particularly in services, remain entrenched.

Crucially, these readings predate the latest surge in energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions. As higher fuel costs begin to feed through to transport and broader goods and services, inflation risks are likely to tilt higher again. This leaves the RBA facing a more uncertain outlook, with policy decisions increasingly complicated by the evolving external environment.

Full Australia CPI release here.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the latest surge in energy prices risks complicating the inflation outlook at a delicate stage in the policy cycle. Speaking to PBS News Hour, he said the economy is now facing a new inflation shock before fully absorbing the previous one.

"We're likely to see an impact driving up inflation at a time when we still haven't quite cleared the previous shock that was driving up inflation," Goolsbee said.

Goolsbee emphasized that any path toward rate cuts this year depends on clear progress in inflation. "For it to be realistic that rates would come down further this year we've got to see progress on inflation," he added.

"With inflation going up more, we're going to have to really think through what the options are and how we're going to get through it," he said.

Fed Governor Michael Barr indicated that the labor market is showing signs of stabilization, but stressed that inflation remains the dominant concern for monetary policy. He noted that while employment conditions have steadied, price pressures continue to run "notably" above the Fed’s 2% objective.

Barr acknowledged that inflation could ease over time but warned that rising oil prices pose a fresh risk. Higher energy costs are already feeding through to gasoline and broader consumer prices. He made clear that any move toward rate cuts would require stronger evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path.

"I would like to ‌see ⁠evidence that goods and services price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market conditions remain stable,"  he said.

• Silver, Gold, and Platinum are consolidating after consequential corrections in the past few sessions
• As Traders still attempt to price the next phase of the conflict, metals have formed a short-term bottom. Will it translate to a long-term one?
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD

Today is an unusual session for the markets following a chaotic day yesterday.

Participants cannot be blamed for the current uncertainty; we are now in the aftermath of a series of decisions made by major Central Banks. Fundamentals are inconsistent, leading to a widespread sense of confusion across all asset classes, resulting in a slow consolidation.

Given that many of the world's most educated economists, like the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Central Bankers, seemingly struggle to understand the ongoing situation, it will be challenging to predict the market's direction once the uncertainty lifts.

Metals are not immune to this confusion, especially after experiencing volatile 10% swings up and down yesterday – They are today, however, experiencing a relatively calmer session: Silver is up a shy 1%, Gold retreats from $4,400 and other Metals like Platinum are hanging close to unchaged.

In general, after periods of significant volatility and a lull in news, the markets tend to trade within a range. This is precisely what we are witnessing today.

The best approach now is to take a step back and prepare for what lies ahead. These types of sessions offer key breakout levels, as algos and traders await news to catalyze the next movement in the markets.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold is now stuck in a triangle formation right at its quintessential $4,400 level – decisive for upcoming action.

Remaining with +/- $75 of the psychological zone gives a further sense of uncertainty, hence this provides key breakout levels to play as the week continues:

• Above $4,475, Bulls will hold the advantage until $4,700
• Below $4,325 however, expect $4,100 to retest swiftly

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Short-term breakout level $4,475
• February Wick Pivot $4,675 - $4,725
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100
• Higher Timeframe Support $3,880 to $4,000
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver has seen similar volatility and is now fighting to hold its $70 key level (+/- $1)

• Rebounding and closing on a 4H candle above $71 would point to a swift retest of $75 to $77.50 Momentum Pivot level, re-entering its 2025 bull channel
  • Extending above $80 puts back the trend in the bull's hand
• Rejecting $69 however would point to a retest of the $62 previous session support.
  • Breaking below $61 hints at the $50 to $55 October 2025 Support

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $71 intraday resistance
• Key Momentum Pivot $74 to $77.50
• Major Resistance $84.50 (50-Day MA)
• Higher Timeframe and War Resistance $90 to $95
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades!

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

• Silver reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 75.30

Silver recently reversed from the support area between the support level 64.30 (former low of wave (A) from February), lower daily Bollinger Band and 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from April of 2025.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

Given the strong daily uptrend, Silver can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 75.30 (former support from February).