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Markets stayed cautious through the European session as a persistent “trust gap” around the Middle East conflict kept investors from fully embracing a peace pivot. Major European indexes traded sideways while US futures edged lower, reflecting a lack of conviction despite earlier optimism.

Oil continues to anchor sentiment. Brent crude is holding in a tight range above 100, signaling that traders are not pricing in a lasting de-escalation. The absence of tangible progress—such as a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—has left markets reluctant to extend risk-on positioning.

Against this backdrop, today’s flash PMI releases offer a clearer macro signal. While they have not triggered immediate moves in FX markets, they provide what can be seen as a “smoking gun” for emerging stagflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. The key takeaway is not just stagflation, but divergence. The same shock—higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions—is being transmitted unevenly across economies, shaping different growth-inflation trade-offs and, in turn, different policy paths.

In the UK, the data point to a clear inflation shock. Manufacturing cost inflation surged to its highest level since the 1992 Sterling crisis, with firms already passing higher costs onto consumers. Despite this, both manufacturing and services remain in expansion. This dynamic strengthens the case for a more hawkish Bank of England stance. Policymakers are effectively “fighting a fire with a hose”.

Australia, by contrast, is facing a growth shock. It is the only major economy in this group where PMI Composite has already fallen into contraction territory, driven by a sharp deterioration in services activity. A further rate hike in May is now far more contentious. While markets still price a reasonable probability of tightening, the growth side of the equation is deteriorating quickly, raising the risk that additional hikes could push the economy into a deeper downturn.

In the Eurozone, the picture is more muddled. Manufacturing activity has shown some improvement, but services are close to stalling, leaving the Composite reading hovering near stagnation. This split creates a policy “tug-of-war” within the ECB. With growth estimated at around 0.1% and inflation pressures building toward 3%, the ECB faces a classic stagflation dilemma. The likely response is a wait-and-see approach, particularly as policymakers assess whether energy prices push materially higher.

Japan stands out as relatively resilient for now. Business activity remains in expansion, supported by stable demand, although rising energy costs are beginning to filter through. Inflation is likely to pick up again as the effects of subsidies fade. But for now, Japan could still "enjoying the last bit of sunshine".

In currency markets, these divergences are becoming clearer. Sterling is the strongest performer for the week so far, followed by Yen and Euro, while Australian Dollar leads losses alongside Kiwi. Dollar and Swiss Franc are more neutral, reflecting the broader uncertainty. Until geopolitical clarity emerges, markets are likely to remain caught between fragile optimism and persistent stagflation risks.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.24%. DAX is down -0.88%. CAC is down -0.39%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.037 at 4.894. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.035 at 3.043. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.43%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.79%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.78%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.44%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.052 to 2.271.

Eurozone PMIs point to stagflation with 3% inflation and 0.1% growth

Eurozone PMI data point to rising stagflation risks, with inflation nearing 3% while growth slows to just 0.1%. Surging energy costs and weakening demand are squeezing activity and complicating the ECB’s policy outlook. Read more.

UK PMIs show manufacturing cost inflation at highest since 1992 Sterling crisis

UK PMI data show manufacturing cost inflation surging to its highest since the 1992 Sterling crisis, as energy prices and supply disruptions hit growth and raise stagflation risks. Read More.

BoJ's Ueda: Inflation to rise moderately, food tax cut impact limited

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda expects inflation to rise moderately, supported by a strengthening wage-price cycle, while downplaying the long-term impact of a proposed food tax cut. Read more.

Japan core CPI falls to 1.7% in February, as energy costs drag inflation lower

Japan CPI data point to easing inflation momentum driven by energy costs, though core-core inflation suggests underlying pressures remain. Read more.

Japan PMI composite falls to 52.5, war lifts costs and hits sentiment

Japan’s PMI data show growth cooling as input costs surge and business sentiment weakens. The Middle East conflict is lifting energy prices and disrupting supply chains, squeezing margins and raising uncertainty. Read more.

Australia PMI composite falls to 47, cost inflation hits 3-yr high on Middle East conflict

Australia’s PMI data signal a sharp shift into contraction as demand weakens and cost inflation surges to a three-year high. The combination highlights early stagflation risks as the Middle East shock begins to hit growth and prices. Read more.

RBNZ's Breman warns of inflation spike but cautions against overreaction

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman warns the Middle East conflict will lift inflation while weighing on growth, but stresses policy must avoid overreacting to temporary shocks. The focus remains on preventing short-term price spikes from becoming persistent inflation. Read more.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3300; (P) 1.3389; (R1) 1.3522; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in established range above 1.3216 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 1.3482 resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, below 1.3216 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, decisive break of 1.3482 will argue that the fall from 1.3867 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3216 at 1.3618.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

WTI oil price rose above $90 per barrel on Tuesday after sharp Monday’s drop (around 10%) to $84.50 (the lowest since Mar 11) after President Trump announced a peace deal with Iran and postponed US military action towards Iranian energy sector, sending shockwaves through the markets.

Iran’s response that Trump’s announcement was just a fake news, primarily oriented to stabilize stock markets and fresh wave of attacks on Israel overnight, soured the sentiment again, although so far limited bounce suggests that markets probably need more time to digest all story and generate clearer direction signal.

However, fresh escalation of the conflict fuels supply fears despite temporary relief, provided by Monday’s sharp drop that pushed the price away from $100 breakpoint and keeps in play hopes for stronger recovery.

Bullishly aligned daily studies (most of DMAs remain in full bullish setup, with formation of 100/200DMA bull cross/still strong positive momentum/daily Tenkan-sen crossed above Kijun-sen) support the idea, which still requires validation of developing positive signals.

Today’s close above $90 will be the minimum requirement, with extension above $93.00 zone (former range floor/50% retracement of Monday’s drop) and violation of 10DMA ($94.25) needed to bring bulls back to play and shift focus towards $100.

Caution on repeated close below $90 that would keep the downside vulnerable.

Res: 91.05; 92.26; 93.00; 94.25.
Sup: 89.11; 88.54; 86.72; 84.50.

UK PMI data for March point to a sharp loss of growth momentum as the Middle East conflict begins to weigh on activity. PMI Manufacturing edged down from 51.7 to 51.4, while PMI Services dropped more notably from 53.9 to 51.2, a six-month low. As a result, PMI Composite declined from 53.7 to 51.0, also marking its weakest level in six months.

The slowdown reflects weakening demand across both sectors. Firms reported lost business linked directly to the conflict, citing heightened risk aversion among customers, disruptions to travel and supply chains, and the impact of higher interest rates. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, output growth has slowed “to a crawl”.

At the same time, inflation pressures are accelerating sharply. Rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions have driven a surge in input costs, with manufacturing cost inflation reaching its highest level since the aftermath of Sterling’s depreciation in 1992.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap has increased by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, remaining near the high reached after Trump announced talks with Iran. This outperforms most related markets, where initial momentum has waned. Among the major coins, the relatively smaller Aptos (+15%), Filecoin (+10%), and Toncoin (+7.4%) are performing better than others. Monero (-2%) and Polkadot (+1%) are underperforming. Meanwhile, the crypto market has been trading around its 50-day moving average for the past 10 days, with a few attempts to move above it.

Bitcoin has risen by more than 4.5%, staying just below $71K. Although the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalise on the upward momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls. They are gradually developing a more optimistic outlook. However, it would be premature to declare the end of the downtrend until prices settle above $75K, where the March pivot points and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the January-February decline are concentrated.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds increased by $230 million last week, representing a fivefold decrease from the previous week. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $219 million, in Solana by $17 million, in Chainlink by $5 million, and in XRP by $3 million. Investments in Ethereum declined by $28 million.

Bitcoin can serve as a liquid asset and an ‘exit point’ for investors amid instability in global markets, notes the hedge fund Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.

The current decline in Bitcoin is connected to a four-year cycle and profit-taking by long-term holders. The bull run is expected to start in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital.

In mid-March, the average cost of mining a single Bitcoin increased to $88K, according to calculations by Checkonchain. At a market price of about $69K, miners are losing an average of roughly 21%.

Strategy bought an extra 1,031 BTC ($76 million) last week at an average price of $74,326 per coin. The company now owns 762,099 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,694 and aims to raise an additional $44 billion for further acquisitions.

Oil and silver have surpassed Solana and XRP in trading volumes on the decentralised Hyperliquid platform. This exchange is increasingly popular for trading commodity contracts, especially at weekends when traditional markets are closed.

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 4-hour Elliott Wave Charts of Bitcoin. In which, the decline from 14 January 2026 high ended 5 waves in an impulse sequence and showed a lower low sequence in a corrective pattern. Therefore, we knew that the structure of Bitcoin is incomplete to the downside & should see more weakness. So, we advised members to sell the bounces in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Bitcoin 4-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.02.2026

Here’s 4-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 3.02.2026 update. In which, the decline to $59930 low ended 5 waves from the 1.14.2026 high within wave (A) & made a wave (B) bounce. The internals of that bounce unfolded as an Elliott wave zigzag correction where wave A ended at $72174 high. Then a decline to $62525 ended wave B pullback and started the C leg higher towards $74750- $82450 blue box area from where sellers were expected to appear looking for more downside or for a 3 wave reaction lower at least.

Bitcoin Latest 4-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.24.2026

This is the Latest 4-hour view from the 3.24.2026 update. In which the BTCUSD is showing a strong reaction lower taking place from the equal legs area allowing shorts to get into a risk-free position shortly after taking the position.

Eurozone PMI data for March point to growing stagflation risk, with rising cost pressures colliding with slowing growth. PMI Manufacturing rose from 50.8 to 51.4, marking a 45-month high. But this strength was offset by weakness in services, where PMI Services fell from 51.9 to 50.1. As a result, PMI Composite declined from 51.9 to 50.5, its lowest level in 10 months.

The divergence highlights an uneven economic picture. While manufacturing continues to benefit from pockets of external demand, the services sector is losing momentum as business confidence deteriorates and new orders weaken. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, output growth has slowed to "near-stagnation", with forward-looking indicators pointing to a heightened risk of a downturn in the coming months.

At the same time, inflation pressures are intensifying sharply. Firms reported the fastest rise in input costs in over three years, driven by higher energy prices and worsening supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Supplier delays have surged to their highest since mid-2022.

The data present a difficult backdrop for the EB. With growth slowing toward stagnation while price pressures accelerate, policymakers face a challenging trade-off. Williamson noted that the ECB is no longer in a “good place” on the growth-inflation balance, with survey indicators pointing to inflation nearing 3% and GDP growth slipping below 0.1% in the near term.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Gold prices fell to 4,300 USD per ounce on Tuesday, with quotes remaining under pressure amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Iran has denied reports of any talks with the US, stating that no such contacts have occurred.

Tehran dismissed Donald Trump's statements as an attempt to influence financial markets and has continued its attacks on American targets. Israel, meanwhile, continues to strike Iranian territory.

Gold saw a brief recovery earlier after Trump postponed potential strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and announced that negotiations had allegedly begun. However, the prospects for resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated.

Since its March peak, gold has lost up to 25% amid rising energy prices. The rally in commodity prices has reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy, weighing on the non-yielding asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 4,383 USD level. An upside breakout would open the path for a correction towards 4,850 USD, while a downside breakout could see the downward wave extend to 4,272 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line below the centre line but pointing sharply upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,300 USD level and completed a wave to 4,414 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to 4,308 USD is likely, followed by an anticipated rise to 4,505 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line remaining above the 20 level and showing potential to rise towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold continues to fall out of favour as the market prioritises inflation risks driven by the protracted Middle East conflict. Despite brief moments of relief following headlines about potential negotiations, the underlying reality of sustained hostilities and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy prices elevated, and monetary policy expectations tilted towards tighter conditions. Having lost a quarter of its value from its March highs, gold now faces a challenging environment in which concerns about rising rates repeatedly overshadow safe-haven demand. While technical indicators suggest a short-term bounce is likely, the broader trend remains firmly bearish.

Dow Futures (YM) is correcting the larger degree cycle that began from the April 2025 low. The current decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure, which highlights a complex corrective phase rather than a simple retracement. From the all-time high on February 10, 2026 at 50,611, wave W finished at 46,333, while the subsequent rally in wave X reached 48,275, as shown in the one-hour chart. The ongoing wave Y is progressing with internal subdivision that takes the form of a zigzag, consistent with the broader corrective framework.

From the peak of wave X, wave ((a)) dropped to 45,453, followed by wave ((b)) which appears complete at 47,210. In the near term, as long as rallies remain capped below 47,210 and more importantly below 48,275, the expectation is for the Index to continue extending lower. This outlook aligns with Fibonacci extension measurements taken from the February 10, 2026 high. The projected downside target falls within the 100% to 161.8% extension range, corresponding to 41,268 – 43,925. This zone is significant because it represents an area where buyers may emerge, potentially supporting renewed upside momentum once the corrective sequence has matured. The structure therefore suggests that while short-term weakness dominates, the broader cycle retains the potential for recovery once the corrective objectives are satisfied

Dow Futures (YM) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

YM Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54zEkss3ksY

Key takeaways

• Downtrend confirmed, TACO rally likely a trap: Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken below its 200-day moving average and fallen ~10% from its peak, with the recent “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) rebound likely a dead cat bounce rather than a sustainable reversal.
• Macro risks not fully priced by equities: The VIX/MOVE ratio signals that bond volatility is dominating, implying interest rate and stagflation risks remain underpriced in equities, leaving room for further downside.
• Key levels define next move: Immediate resistance sits at 46,710, while a break below 45,190 exposes further downside toward 44,975 and 44,505; failure to reclaim resistance keeps the bearish bias intact.

The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have tumbled as expected and broken below the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 18 March 2026.

On Monday, 23 March 2026, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index extended its bearish move to print an intraday low of 45,213 seen during the London session. All in all, it has plummeted by 10% from its current all-time high printed on 10 February 2026 to Monday’s 23 March 2026 low, reinforced by a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve triggered by rising stagflation risk due to global oil supply shock arising from the US-Iran war.

Risk-on behaviour roared back on Monday, 23 March 2026, after US President Trump sent a social media message that planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure will be paused for five days as both sides are engaged in a renewed negotiation process, despite Iran's repeated assertion that no direct negotiations have been held with the US.

The TACO regime, the popular acronym, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has its footprints in the global financial markets yesterday, where market participants remembered the ex-post “Liberation Day” events in late April 2025, where Trump walked back on his aggressive tariffs and paused the US’s trade war 2.0 with China, inducing a V-shaped recovery in global stock markets.

Last year’s April “Liberation Day” TACO regime was a reaction to a sell-off in risk assets caused by “words” rather than actions, which are military strikes on stakeholders’ physical infrastructure in the current context, in turn, are likely to have lasting economic damages that cannot be easily reversed by a change of rhetoric from Trump.

Hence, Monday’s TACO-induced rally in risk assets is likely a fake head, also known as a dead cat bounce.

Intermarket analysis and technical analysis suggest that the medium-term V-shaped rally for the US stock market and global equities in general remains elusive now.

The VIX/MOVE ratio has not reached an extreme level on the upside

Fig. 1: VIX/MOVE ratio with S&P 500 medium-term trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the implied volatility of the S&P 500, a gauge for US equities. On the other hand, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (MOVE) measures the implied volatility of US Treasuries.

Based on the latest price action of the VIX/MOVE ratio as of Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at the time of writing, it is trading below its 20-day moving average with a series of “lower highs and lower lows,” which suggests bond (US Treasuries) volatility is dominating, which implies interest rates uncertainty is the core driver at this juncture, and equity volatility is likely not fully pricing in such macro risk yet (may lead to more potential downside for US stock indices) (see Fig. 1).

Also, the VIX/MOVE ratio has not crossed above its daily Bollinger Bands’ upper limit, where such movements in the past led to or coincided with significant bullish reversals in the S&P 500 on 20 November 2025, 16 October 2025, and 8 April 2025 (see Fig. 1).

Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective

Dow Jones (DJIA) – Bearish reaction at 200-day moving average

Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the 46,710 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 45,237/190 may expose the next intermediate supports at 44,975/810 and 44,505 (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, a clearance above 46,710 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 47,338 and 47,923.

Key elements to support the bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA)

• Yesterday’s rally stalled at the 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the descending channel from the 26 February 2026 high.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator staged a bearish reaction at its horizontal resistance level.

Yesterday, following a false bullish breakout above the psychological $100 level, WTI crude prices fell sharply towards the $85 area. The primary driver of this rapid decline was comments made by the US President.

According to Donald Trump:

• → the United States has postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days;
• → productive negotiations are ongoing.

However, Iran later denied these claims, stating that no negotiations to end the conflict were taking place. Moreover, Israel continued its strikes on Iran, while Tehran launched fresh attacks on US assets in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, the US President’s remarks appear to be a form of verbal intervention aimed at pushing oil prices lower — and, as the XTI/USD chart shows, it is having an effect. Today, WTI crude is trading below last week’s lows.

Technical Analysis of XTI/USD

When analysing WTI price movements on 16 March, we highlighted:

• → strong selling pressure near the psychological $100 level;
• → a support zone that formed after the breakout from a local descending channel.

This support area significantly slowed yesterday’s decline in oil prices. At the same time, recent price action allows for the construction of a broad ascending channel, with its lower boundary acting as an important support level.

From a bearish perspective:

• → the $91.50 level, which acted as support last week, has now turned into resistance;
• → if bulls attempt to develop a rebound from the lower boundary, a key test of their strength will be the $95 level, where bears previously pushed prices below the channel median.

In the near term, a period of consolidation between the lower boundary of the channel and the $91.50 level cannot be ruled out, at least until stronger news catalysts emerge, particularly those related to developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

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