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FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

• FTSE 100 reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 10100.00

FTSE 100 index recently reversed from the support area between the support level 9670.00 (which reversed the price twice in December), lower daily Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from last May.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from the start of March.

Given the strong daily uptrend, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 10100.00 (former low of wave (A)).

• Oil tumbled in the previous session as negotiations could be back on the table.
• Nevertheless, realities of war indicate that the conflict isn't looking to ease like this, which could prevent positive sentiment.
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

In War, there are words and realities, propaganda and clearly defined facts – and the frontier between both is rarely so transparent.

President Trump changed the Market trajectory after saying US-Iran negotiations could resume, a report initially denied by Iran but later confirmed as Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelled to Pakistan, where talks would reportedly occur.

The fact that his diplomatic flight took place with US and Israeli approval proves that the US President wasn't just blowing steam – particularly given Al Arabiya reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Ayatollah, would also be open to talks.

Nevertheless, the cloud remains over how deep and effective these talks would be regarding an official dropping of Iranian Ballistic Missiles and nuclear program, and, more importantly for immediate markets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

A ceasefire deal is currently priced at around 44% for the end of April – to me, people are a bit pessimistic about the potential for the War to end sooner rather than later.

US-Iran Ceasefire – Source: Polymarket. March 24, 2026

The reality, however, gets a bit different, with Gas infrastructure attacks, Saudi Arabia leaning to join the war and changing its stance, and the fleet of 4,500 Marines arriving in the Middle East towards the end of the week.

The latter is the most concerning fact for Markets, leading to swift comparisons to Afghanistan and Iraq, which also hints at a much longer war.

It will depend, of course, on how negotiations result:

Will it result in free passage in the Strait of Hormuz? Will the Iranian population gain more power and freedom after the 5-week initial Wartime Period? Will attacks on both sides actually cease and lead to longer-term peace?

All of these questions will have to find clear answers in order for Markets to get rid of the uncertainty cloud looming over investors since the beginning of March.

As the situation should become clearer as this week continues, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to spot where potential action could take place and where to look if they fail.

US Oil Multi-Timeframe Analysis

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView

With the intense volatility seen in the commodity since the beginning of the conflict, the daily chart can seen quite unclear.

But traders need to look at what is standing out:

Yesterday's drop tested the 20-Day Moving Average ($86.00) which remains the indicator dictating momentum – breaching it to the downside would imply further easing in conditions. Above, the action remains relatively bullish.

Also, yesterday's move lower actually brought the action back right around the War Spike, implying that the action is at least much more balanced than it was in the past week.

As the morning session continues, Bulls are attempting a rebound, hence, the levels to watch for momentum clearly remains the $93.00 to $95 zone (bullish above, neutral/bearish below).

WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels

WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView

The 4H RSI is at least not pointing to a further rally from where things stand:

Forming a top-looking shape, bull exhaustion at the Key Pivot area could forge at least a new range below $93.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• $92.70 Intraday Resistance
• Key Momentum Pivot $93.00 to $95 (immediate resistance, bear below)
• $96.11 4H 50-period MA
• $98 to $100 Resistance
• $106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance
• 2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120

Support Levels

• $87 to $90 mini-Support
• Past session lows $86.49
• $82.80 to $84 Key Support
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80
• Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00
• $69 to $70 Main Support (If Ceasefire, should quickly head towards there)
• 2025 lows $55.00

1H Chart and Action levels

WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView

The 1H timeframe really shows how yesterday tilted the scales towards towards a more balanced price action – even slightly bearish.

Yesterday's announcement brought a wave of optimism which quickly found its lows; WTI has been rallying slowly since and forming a rising wedge formation (bearish).

The 1H RSI is also turning lower from neutral, a sign of potential reversal.

But all things considered, as long as bears can't reject the $92.70 intraday resistance, the action is more mixed than anything – breaking the intraday highs would give the upper hand to the bulls towards $95.

Keep track of the headlines and the Wedge support.

Safe Trades!

Markets

Eurozone output growth slowed in March as input cost inflation hits the highest level for over three years. EMU March PMI’s give a sobering, though expected, indication on how the war in the Middle-East could impact the economy. The composite PMI decreased from 51.9 to 50.5, a 10-month low. The slowdown in growth was in large part due to a near stagnation of business activity in the service sector (50.1 from 51.9). The manufacturing PMI increased from 50.8 to 51.4. An overall decline of new orders centred on services. For a third month in a row, there was a marginal reduction in staffing levels. Companies continued to predict a rise in output over the coming year, but the degree of optimism was below the series average. The most market-relevant details came from price components. The sharp increase in input costs already spills to selling prices though at a less pronounced pace (still steepest pace since February 2024 though). The war also caused disruption to supply chains, with manufacturers reporting the most marked lengthening of suppliers' delivery times in over three-and-a-half years. S&P Global, responsible for the release, commented that the survey’s price gauge is indicative of CPI inflation accelerating close to 3%, with cost pressure likely to add still further to selling price inflation in the coming months. Data underscore that the ECB is no longer in a good place. ECB policy makers in the meantime keep calling for (extra) vigilance on possible second-round effects coming from energy prices. PMI’s suggest that the pass-through occurs immediately. New vice-president Vujcic this morning said that policy makers will soon know whether they must act with “a lot of new data and news” available by April. He suggested to start with a small move (+25 bps) if hikes are needed and believes that we’re already departing from the baseline forecast towards the alternative scenario. Under the “adverse” one, EMU CPI is expected to average 3.5% this year assuming that the ECB keeps policy rates unchanged. For the record, US PMI’s painted a similar picture with the survey’s price gauges pointing to CPI accelerating back to 4%!

PMI’s, hawkish ECB-rhetoric and conflicting signals from the Middle-East (TACO vs Israeli attacks & Iranian denial & potential Saudi/UAE involvement & Russian export curb on fertilizers) already call an end to yesterday’s intraday market turnaround. The EMU swap rate curve bear flattens with yields rising by more than 10 bps at the front end of the curve. US yields rise by up to 5 bps. The only true market compass, the oil price, sticks above $100/b. The equity rebound is short-lived with key US and European indices losing 0.5% and more. The dollar profits with EUR/USD back below 1.16. Gold prices are down for a record tenth day on a row.

News & Views

The Middle East conflict sent chilling stagflationary vibes across the UK in March. The composite PMI fell to 51 from 53.7, dragged lower by the services sector (51.2 from 53.9). Lower business and consumer confidence led to the first decline in total new work in four months and delivery times lengthened amid ships re-routing and production stoppages at Middle East petrochemical suppliers. Input cost inflation, meanwhile, was the steepest since February 2023. Manufacturing even showed the largest acceleration (from February) in price pressures since the GBP depreciation following Black Wednesday in 1992. Squeezed margins and softer business activity growth contributed to another reduction in private sector employment. Job shedding picked up from last month. The one year ahead forward looking indicator eased to the lowest for nine months reflecting marked declines in optimism across both sectors. Geopolitical concerns were the top mentioned factor, alongside worries about the cost of living and weak domestic economic prospects. EUR/GBP shrugged at the release. The pair barely budget in the mid 0.86-0.87 area.

As a heavy net energy importer, Turkey is feeling the heat from Iran-related volatility. The country braces for inflation and balance-of-payment shocks at a time when domestic prices are already surging more than 30% (February data). That’s pressuring the country’s currency hard, particularly against the USD. Turkey officials are constantly intervening to keep lira depreciation limited to the monthly inflation rate, leading to heavy FX reserve drawdowns and the sale of foreign-currency bonds, including Treasuries. Bloomberg reported that officials are now considering to tap into their $135bn gold reserve. Gold prices fell marginally on the news with bullion now changing hands around $4360. USD/TRY currently trades around 44.35 with YtD gains (TRY losses) having mounted to 3.3%.

US PMI data for March point to a deteriorating growth-inflation balance, with activity slowing while price pressures rise. PMI Manufacturing improved from 51.6 to 52.4, but PMI Services fell from 51.7 to 51.1, an 11-month low. This pulled PMI Composite down from 51.9 to 51.4, also marking its weakest level in nearly a year.

The data suggest that the Middle East conflict is beginning to weigh on demand while lifting costs. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, companies are reporting weaker demand due to heightened uncertainty and the rising cost of living, even as they build "safety stocks" to guard against potential supply disruptions. At the same time, firms are trimming headcounts to manage rising expenses.

Inflation pressures are also intensifying. Price gauges from the survey indicate consumer inflation could accelerate back toward 4%, while growth is expected to slow to around a 1.0% annualized pace.

Full US PMI flash release here.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill signaled growing concern over inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, pointing to energy prices as the primary channel through which the shock will affect the UK economy. He described the current environment as one of “radical” uncertainty but stressed that commodity price movements will ultimately determine the policy outlook.

Pill highlighted the importance of monitoring second-round effects, particularly in wages and pricing behavior. These “catch-up” dynamics following large price shocks can create more persistent inflation pressures, posing a greater challenge for policymakers. Containing such effects is critical to maintaining price stability over the medium term.

Highlighting a more hawkish stance, Pill said he sees “upside risks to price stability mounting” and stands "ready to act" if needed. He stressed that "the fog of uncertainty in which we always operate cannot be an excuse for inaction". The MPC, he said, must remain focused on delivering its inflation target, even in a volatile and uncertain global environment.

Full speech of BoE's Pill here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1519; (P) 1.1579; (R1) 1.1674; More….

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged as it's still extending consolidations from 1.1408. With 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, below 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.1501) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0528). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7819; (P) 0.7879; (R1) 0.7924; More….

USD/CHF is still staying in consolidations below 0.7957 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, rise from 0.7603 should be correcting whole decline from 0.9200. Above 0.7957 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7746 support holds.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8085) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.72; (P) 158.69; (R1) 159.40; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another dip, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.88 at 156.96 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 159.88 will target a test on 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.70) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3300; (P) 1.3389; (R1) 1.3522; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in established range above 1.3216 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 1.3482 resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, below 1.3216 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, decisive break of 1.3482 will argue that the fall from 1.3867 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3216 at 1.3618.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.