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Market picture

The crypto market has been trading around 1.08 trillion over the last day. The trading range is narrowing as the Fed decision approaches. However, it is worth highlighting the pressure on the markets early on Wednesday and the intensification of cryptocurrency selling as the cap rises towards 1.09 trillion.

Bitcoin encountered resistance at $27.4K. Attempts to break above the 50-day moving average for the third day met strong resistance. All financial markets have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of monetary policy decisions in the US, Switzerland, the UK, and Japan.

The situation for Bitcoin is bearish if one looks solely at the technical picture on the chart. The corrective bounce in BTC is formally over; the price has fallen below the moving averages, and the short-term oversold condition is complete.

In another recalculation, bitcoin’s mining difficulty rose 5.48% to 57.12 T. According to Glassnode, the smoothed 7-day moving average hit a high of 423.4 EH/s.

News background

According to K33, trading volumes on the Binance exchange fell by 57% over the week. Users are moving to other trading platforms that have not yet been subject to regulatory crackdowns.

The court declined to order Binance’s US unit to provide the SEC with more information about handling customer funds. Instead, the district judge urged the two sides to work together.

SEC Commissioner Esther Pierce urged cryptocurrency companies not to leave the US. She said she was frustrated by the agency’s reluctance to clarify cryptocurrency regulation.

Massive applications to launch spot bitcoin ETFs are revitalising the crypto market and could be a catalyst for bitcoin’s growth, Matrixport believes. BTC’s cryptocurrency market dominance is approaching 50 per cent and is set to grow.

Laser Digital Asset Management, a subsidiary of Japan’s largest investment firm, Nomura, launched a Bitcoin fund for long-term institutional investment.

Citigroup launches Citi Token for business-to-business payments and trade finance based on blockchain technology and smart contracts.

CADJPY was trading sideways for the last couple of months, where we were tracking a bullish triangle pattern within higher degree wave IV before a bullish continuation for wave V. On september 04, we have spotted a completion of a bullish triangle pattern, as subwave E of IV found the support with a spike.

As you can see today on September 20, CADJPY is breaking yearly highs for a higher degree wave V as expected and there can be room for more upside within that projected five-wave cycle for a higher degree wave V towards 111 – 112 area, just be aware of short-term wave 4 pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8610; (P) 0.8622; (R1) 0.8645; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside as rise from 0.8491 extends higher today. While further rally could be seen, this rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.8502. Upside should be limited by 0.8667/8700 resistance zone. On the downside, below 0.8614 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.8568 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8491 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Fall from 0.8977 is seen as the third leg. As long as 0.8700 resistance holds, further decline is still expected. Break of 0.8491 will resume the fall towards 0.8201 (2022 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8700 will now be a sign of bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.82; (P) 183.15; (R1) 183.59; More...

Further decline is expected in GBP/JPY despite loss of downside momentum. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 182.49) will argue that it's already in a larger scale correction and target 176.29 support next. On the upside, break of 184.39 resistance will argue that the pull back from 186.75 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 185.76 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and turn outlook neutral for lengthier and deeper consolidations.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.63; (P) 157.95; (R1) 158.25; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Risk will be mildly on the downside as long as 158.64 resistance holds. Break of 156.57 support, and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 156.80) will argue that fall from 159.75 is a larger scale correction. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 151.39 support. Nevertheless, above 158.64 would bring retest of 159.75 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.39 support holds, rise from 114.42 is still expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6509; (P) 1.6563; (R1) 1.6602; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation form 1.6452 is still extending. Further decline is expected with 1.6793 resistance intact. Fall from 1.7062 is seen as a larger scale correction. Below 1.6452 will target 1.6000 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9572; (P) 0.9586; (R1) 0.9601; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as it's still bounded in range trading. As long as 0.9600 resistance holds, downside breakout is in favor. Firm break of 0.9513 will resume larger fall from 1.0095 to 0.9407 low. Nevertheless, on the upside, sustained break of 0.9066 resistance will indicate that strong rebound is underway, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9840 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the cross is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9818). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the update to Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs economic forecasts, a marginal upgrade has been bestowed upon Switzerland's 2023 GDP outlook, leveraging the robust performance in the first quarter. The forecast, adjusted for sporting events, now stands at 1.3%, a slight increase from the 1.1% predicted in June.

Despite this adjustment, outlook for 2024 has experienced a cut, settling at 1.2% as opposed to the earlier estimation of 1.5%. This renders the prospects for economic growth considerably below-average for both 2023 and 2024.

Shifting focus to CPI forecasts, the estimation for 2023 have been marginally trimmed down to 2.2%, a -0.1% decrease from June forecast. Conversely, 2024 projection experiences a hike, ascending from 1.5% to 1.9%.

SECO points towards substantial economic risks looming on the horizon. A pressing concern is the international persistence of inflation. The panorama of economic challenges also encompasses escalating risks tied to the global debt scenario fluctuations in property and financial markets. Monetary policy transmission could also be stronger than assumed.

Furthermore, the evolving situations in Germany and China emerge as potent risk factors, not just for the global economy but significantly impacting Swiss foreign trade.

Full SECO release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3390; (P) 1.3442; (R1) 1.3499; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 1.3693 is seen as another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3976. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3091 to 1.3693 at 1.3321. Sustained break there will target 1.3091 support next. On the upside, above 1.3492 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern is now extending. But downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3796 at 1.2991. Rise from 1.2005 is still expected to resume after the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6429; (P) 0.6452; (R1) 0.6475; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 0.6520 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.