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Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 43.5, glimmers of hope despite persistent weakness
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 43.5, marking a slight uptick from July's 38-month low of 42.7. Country-level readings reveal that Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, remains a cause for concern. Although it reported a two-month high, its PMI of 39.1 underscores its struggles. Spain (46.5), France (46.0), the Netherlands (45.9), Italy (45.4), and Austria (40.6) remained in contraction. Greece and Ireland were above 50-mark at 52.9 and 50.8 respectively.
Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, commented on the situation, stating, "These numbers aren't as terrible as they might look at first glance."
Despite the obvious weakness signaled by a PMI below 50, de la Rubia pointed out that all twelve subindices either improved or remained stable. "This indicates that the downward trend from the past few months is starting to lose steam across the board," he added.
However, the cloud over Germany continues to darken. "Germany remains a negative outlier among the big euro countries," de la Rubia noted. This latest data will likely rekindle debates about Germany being the "sick man of Europe", even though it remains one of the most diversified economies in the region.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.63; (P) 184.90; (R1) 185.70; More...
Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 186.75 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Another fall could still be seen and break of 183.35 will turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 181.67). Nevertheless, firm break of 186.75 will resume larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 176.29 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.05; (P) 158.40; (R1) 159.18; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. For now, further rally is in favor as long as 156.85 support holds. Above 159.75 will extend the rise from 163.06 projection level. Nevertheless, break of 156.85 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 156.23) and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96. This will remain the favored case as long as 151.39 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8542; (P) 0.8571; (R1) 0.8585; More...
Breach of 0.8559 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.8491 has completed at 0.8609. Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is back on the downside for retesting 0.8491 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8667 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8667 resistance holds. Break of 0.8502 will resume the fall towards 0.8201 (2022 low).
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6662; (P) 1.6782; (R1) 1.6843; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the downside as fall from 1.7062 is extending. Deeper decline would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6614). On the upside, above 1.6887 minor resistance will argue that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.7062 high.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5846 support holds, even in case of another pull back.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9564; (P) 0.9584; (R1) 0.9598; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 0.9513 will resume larger down trend from 1.0095, towards 0.9407 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.9599 will bring stronger rise to 0.9646 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9829). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3489; (P) 1.3523; (R1) 1.3543; More....
USD/CAD's break of 1.3509 support indicates short term topping at 1.3638, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3411). On the upside, firm break of 1.3653 resistance should confirm that correction from 1.3976 has completed, and target a test on this high.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern only. Upon completion, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) would resume through 1.3976. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4309. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.3409) holds.
AUD/USD Daily Report
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6461; (P) 0.6485; (R1) 0.6508; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.6363 is still extending. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0806; (P) 1.0873; (R1) 1.0910; More...
Break of 1.0854 minor support argues that rebound from 1.0764 has completed at 1.0944. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.0764 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, however, break of 1.0944 resistance will argue that the corrective fall from 1.1274 has completed with three waves down to 1.0764. Further rally would then be seen to 1.1064 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2639; (P) 1.2687; (R1) 1.2720; More...
No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.2546 will resume whole fall from 1.3141 to 61.8% projection of 1.3141 to 1.2618 from 1.2799 at 1.2476. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.2799 will indicate that the correction from 1.3141 has completed with three waves down to 1.2546. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.3141.
In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 1.3141 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Strong support would be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, and consolidation from there is set to extend, until further development.



















