Sample Category Title

Gold: ⬇️ Sell

• Gold reversed from strong resistance level 4350.00
• Likely to fall to support level 4200.00

Gold recently reversed from the resistance area between the strong resistance level 4350.00 (which stopped sharp wave (3) in October) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous impulse waves iii and 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (5).

Given the strength of the resistance level 4350.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 4200.00.

EURGBP: ⬆️ Buy

• EURGBP reversed from support zone
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8850

EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the strong support level 0.8745 (former resistance from April, July and October) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

This support zone was strengthened by the support trendline of the daily up channel from July and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October.

Given the strong daily uptrend, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8850 (which stopped earlier impulse wave 1).

GBP/USD's rally from 1.3008 extended to 1.3438 last week but retreated from there. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3286 support holds. As noted before, fall from 1.3787 should have completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. Above 1.3428 and firm break of 1.3470 resistance will pave the way back to retest 1.3787 high. However, sustained break of 1.3286 support will mix up the near term outlook.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

Dollar ended last week broadly lower, outperforming only the even more beleaguered Yen. That said, the technical deterioration in Dollar is still measured rather than decisive. For now, Dollar's selling momentum reflects hesitation more than capitulation.

Two key forces are shaping this fragile balance. The first is indecisive risk sentiment, which remains unsettled rather than clearly bullish or bearish. Markets continue to wrestle with competing narratives, Fed easing and AI overvaluation, that have yet to converge into a unified directional signal.

The second, and potentially more consequential, factor emerged late last week with a sharp shift in expectations surrounding the next Fed Chair. The repricing was sudden and meaningful, triggering a drastic jump in the US 10-year yield.

If this repricing in yields proves durable, it could offer Dollar an unexpected lifeline. Rather than extending its decline, the greenback may find support from a renewed debate over the future shape of US monetary policy. That makes the bearish case less straightforward than recent price action implies.

Across currencies, Swiss Franc led the week after SNB pushed back against dovish speculations. Euro followed, largely on Dollar weakness, while Kiwi benefited from Aussie underperformance. Yen was firmly at the bottom despite growing expectations of a BoJ rate hike Dollar ranked second weakest. Aussie was the third worst after labor market disappointment cooled RBA 2026 hike speculations.

Sterling and Loonie ended mixed in the middle. Sterling is weighed down by poor GDP data that reinforces a rate hike in the coming days. Loonie was just steady after BoC's rate hold and affirmations that it's now in a long pause.

Fed Cuts Fuel Rally in Traditional Stocks, but Tech Faces Structural Test

US stock markets struggled to find a common direction last week, with gains in traditional sectors offset by renewed weakness in technology. Technology shares bore the brunt of selling pressure, with NASDAQ closing the week down -1.6%. The move reflected mounting concern that AI-driven growth may not translate into profits as smoothly or as quickly as previously assumed, particularly as costs rise alongside scale.

A clear example is Broadcom, which became the focal point of this reassessment towards the end of the week. Despite beating earnings and revenue expectations, its shares collapsed more than -11%. Investors dismissed the headline beat—boosted by one-off factors—and zeroed in on margin compression driven by the rapid expansion of lower-margin, custom AI processors.

This dynamic exposes a key vulnerability in the AI story. While demand is undeniable, the economics are less compelling. Shifting product mixes toward high-volume AI chips boost revenues but dilute margins, forcing investors to rethink how much future growth is truly worth today.

Beyond individual companies, the concern is structural. AI inference workloads are vastly more resource-intensive than traditional computing tasks. Serving each incremental user query requires substantial compute power, raising operating costs and straining margins, especially for firms without diversified revenue streams.

This issue is already evident among AI-focused startups, many of which report strong revenue growth alongside weak or negative gross margins. The market is increasingly wary that similar dynamics could eventually affect larger players, triggering a broader valuation reset rather than isolated corrections.

Technically, NASDAQ is pressing key near term support at 23,110.20. Decisive break there would confirm rejection at 24,019.99 high. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 22,940.48) will solidify the case that corrective pattern from 24,019.99 is already in the third leg. Deeper fall should be seen to 21, 898.28 support, and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 14, 783.03 to 24, 019.99 at 20, 491.85.

By contrast, traditional stocks continue to thrive. DOW and Russell 2000 both closed at new record highs, buoyed by confidence that the Fed’s easing cycle will extend into next year. DOW gained 1.1% over the week, while Russell rose 1.2%, highlighting broad-based strength outside tech.

After lowering interest rate as widely expected by 25bps to 3.50-3.75% last week, the overall pricing of 2026 Q1 Fed path is essentially unchanged. A pause is widely expected in January, while a 25bps cut in March is at around 50%, pretty much a coin toss.

An important factor is Chair Jerome Powell's  emphasis on the job market during the post meeting press conference. That suggests, with Powell pretty at the center of the FOMC hawk/dove spectrum, the committee is still leaning more towards further easing. This is actually inline with the dot plots, which penciled in one more 25bps cut in both 2026 and 2027.

Technically, DOW's up trend resumed by breaking through 48,431.57 last week and hit new record high. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 47,462.94 support holds. Next target is 78.6% projection of 28,660.94 to 45,071.29 from 36,611.78 at 49,510.32. Or even a bit further to 50k psychological level where the real test lies.

Yields Reawaken by Fed Bets, Dollar at a Crossroads

US long-term yields delivered one of the most striking moves of the week, with 10-year Treasury jumping sharply to end at 4.194. The rally followed a brief post-FOMC dip to 4.102, making the reversal both sudden and counterintuitive in the absence of fresh economic catalysts. The abrupt shift points to a reassessment of policy risk rather than a change in growth or inflation expectations.

Late-week reports suggested President Donald Trump may now favor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, overtaking Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate. The implications for markets are significant, as Warsh’s policy instincts differ meaningfully from those of his rivals.

Historically, Warsh has been viewed as a policy hawk. During his time as a Fed Governor, he was critical of quantitative easing and vocal about the risks associated with excessive monetary intervention and rising government debt. Even though he has more recently signaled openness to rate cuts, his structural bias is still seen as far less dovish than Hassett’s.

That distinction is critical for markets looking ahead to 2026. A Fed chaired by Warsh would likely place a higher bar on sustained easing, forcing investors to reconsider assumptions embedded in the “lower for longer” narrative. The more accurate framing may now be “less low than expected.”

This repricing helps explain why yields found buyers precisely when technical support was tested. 10-year yield bounced cleanly off the flat 55 D EMA (now at 4.11). That reaction adds a mildly bullish technical undertone to the near term picture.

Immediate focus is back on 4.2 key cluster resistance, with 38.2% retracement of 4.269 to 3.947 at 4.207. Rejection by this level will keep near term outlook bearish for extending the decline from 4.629 through 3.947 low at a later stage. However, decisive break of 4.2 will argue that fall from 4.629 has already completed, and further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 4.368 and possibly above.

Meanwhile, Dollar Index extended the fall from 100.39 last week and immediate focus is now on 98.03 support. As noted many times before, rebound from 96.21 is seen as a corrective move. Firm break of 98.03 will argue that this corrective rise has completed after rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 100.44). That should bring deeper fall back to retest 96.21 low. In this case, there is also risk of immediate resumption of the whole down trend from 110.17.

However, decisive break of 4.2 mark in 10-year yield could pull Dollar index higher and help it defend 98.03. In that case, another up leg could be seen with prospect of rising through 100.39 to 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 96.21 at 101.54.

CHF/JPY Breakout Reflects SNB Resolve

Swiss Franc emerged as the strongest performer in the currency markets last week, drawing renewed support from the SNB after fears of a dovish shift proved unfounded. The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, as widely expected, but the tone of its communication was more important than the decision itself.

SNB acknowledged that recent inflation prints had undershot expectations in the near term, but emphasized that the medium-term inflation outlook remains “virtually unchanged” compared with September. In the post-meeting press conference, Chair Martin Schlegel struck a more upbeat tone than markets as he pointed to a modest reduction in uncertainty, helped in part by the recent US–Swiss trade agreement, which lowered tariff ceilings and improved export visibility for Swiss firms.

Crucially, Schlegel made clear that the SNB does not target a specific inflation point within its 0–2% stability band. As long as inflation remains within that range, there is no urgency to engineer a move toward the midpoint. This directly undercut speculation that the SNB might feel compelled to loosen policy further. He also reiterated that the bar for returning to negative interest rates remains high,.

As a result, CHF/JPY surged to new multi-decade high, partly also due to Yen's broad based weakness. Technically, CHF/JPY's up trend resumed and is now on track to 100% projection of 173.06 to 186.02 from 183.95 at 196.91. Some resistance could be seen there to cap upside on first attempt. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 192.38 support holds, in case of retreat. Decisive break of 196.91 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 201.86 next.

AUD/USD Weekly Report

AUD/USD's rally from 0.6420 continued last week and hit as high as 0.6685 but retreated ahead of 0.6706 high. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.6706 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.5913. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6552) will extend the corrective pattern from 0.6706 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 08006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006 and above.

EUR/USD's rise from 1.1467 extended higher last week and the development solidifies that correction from 1.1917 ha already completed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.1917 high. For now, further rally is expected as long as 1.1614 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1360) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY extended the corrective pattern from 157.88 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 154.33 will target 55 D EMA (now at 153.58) and possibly below. On the upside, above 156.94 will bring retest of 157.88. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 139.87 to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term.

USD/CHF fell to 0.7923 last week as range trading continued, but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending. On the downside, below 0.7923 will target 0.7877 support. On the upside, though, break of 0.7990 support turned resistance will bring stronger rebound towards 0.8084.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's rally from 0.6420 continued last week and hit as high as 0.6685 but retreated ahead of 0.6706 high. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.6706 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.5913. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6552) will extend the corrective pattern from 0.6706 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 08006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006 and above.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.439 extended lower last week and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3768 will argue that whole decline form 1.4791 might be ready to resume through 1.3538 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.3870 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3567) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.