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Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid explained his dissent at this week’s FOMC meeting, where he voted to keep rates unchanged. He said in a statement his assessment of the economy has not shifted meaningfully since October, citing "continued momentum" in activity and inflation that remains above comfort levels.

Schmid described inflation as “too high” and the labor market as cooling but still “largely in balance.” In that context, his preference is to maintain monetary policy in a "modestly restrictive" setting rather than ease prematurely.

Addressing debate around policy restrictiveness, Schmid downplayed reliance on theoretical estimates of the neutral rate, calling r* an academic concept without a real-world equivalent. Instead, he said policy should be judged by "how the economy actually evolves". From both incoming data and business contacts, he sees an economy that is "showing momentum and inflation that is too hot", suggesting that policy is "not overly restrictive".

Full statement of Fed's Schmid here.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee explained his dissent at this week’s FOMC meeting, where he voted to hold rates rather than support the 25bps cut. He said policymakers should have waited for more incoming data, particularly on inflation, arguing that delaying the decision into the new year "would not have entailed much additional risk" and would have allowed the Fed to assess a more complete set of economic readings.

In a statement, Goolsbee noted that feedback from businesses and consumers in his district consistently points to prices as "a main concern". At the same time, he described the broader economy as showing stable growth, with a labor market that is “only moderately cooling”. He characterized the current environment as one of “low hiring, low firing,” suggesting firms are responding to uncertainty rather than a traditional cyclical slowdown.

While acknowledging that recent inflation pressures may be linked largely to tariffs and could ultimately prove "transitory", Goolsbee cautioned against assuming that outcome too quickly. He reiterated optimism that interest rates can fall meaningfully over the coming year, but stressed discomfort with heavily front-loading cuts.

Full statement of Fed's Goolsbee here.

Hello traders. As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently. In this technical article, we are going to talk about another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures. Recently NQ_F made a clear three-wave correction. The pull back completed as Elliott Wave Double Three pattern and made a decent rally. In this discussion, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave pattern and present targets. Let’s start by explaining the pattern.

NQ_F Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 11.18.2025

The Futures is forming a 3-wave pullback in wave (4) blue. At the moment, we can see incomplete sequences from the main peak, labeled as wave (3) blue. Our members know that we constantly emphasize the importance of incomplete sequences, as these determine the market’s path.

The structure suggests more weakness toward the Equal Legs area at 24145–23097, where we are looking to re-enter as buyers. We expect at least a three-wave bounce from the Blue Box area.

NQ_F Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 12.11.2025

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures found buyers as expected at the Blue Box area, making decent bounce. While above the last low 23905 low we count (4) blue correction completed. Wave (5 ) can be in progress toward new highs, targeting 26989 area.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation gained about 2%, returning to the $3.14T level. The good news is that the latest local low fits into the upward trend of higher lows since the end of November. The bad news is that resistance near $3.20T has remained in place all this time. The spring is compressing, promising an end to the relative calm in the next few days. The market will need to decide on a direction for the coming weeks.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index has been stuck at 29 for the last two days, its highest level since early November. The exit from the zone of extreme fear and the prolonged period of calm are working in favour of the bulls, significantly increasing the chances of a bullish rally soon. At the same time, we continue to believe that cryptocurrencies have already entered a bear market, and a price recovery will attract more sellers.

Bitcoin continues to find support on dips, but, like the rest of the market, is facing horizontal resistance. This dynamic suggests that since the end of November, a rebound in the bear market has occurred, and a new downward momentum will likely follow soon.

News Background

The crypto market is showing signs of cautious optimism but has yet to fully recover from the effects of the October 10 crash, according to Block Scholes.

Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $95,000 to break out of the bearish trend, according to Glassnode. Without this, the asset will remain overly vulnerable to macroeconomic events.

The Fed’s key rate cut was insufficient to stimulate growth in the cryptocurrency market. The situation adds uncertainty and dashes hopes for the traditional ‘Santa Claus rally,’ Coin Bureau notes.

The main driver of growth for the first cryptocurrency is a decline in seller activity. The daily inflow of coins to exchanges has decreased fourfold since November 21, to 21,000 BTC. Bitcoin could rise to $112,000 in the next one to three months, but for this to happen, the Fed must ease its monetary policy, according to CryptoQuant.

The entry of institutional investors into the crypto market has buried the chances of an alt season. Risk-prone retail traders have shifted to the stock market, where they trade shares of high-volatility companies, Gemini notes.

According to Arkham, Tom Lee’s BitMine company bought 33,504 ETH for a total of $112 million. The deal took place against the backdrop of the Fed’s decision to cut its key rate for the third consecutive time.

In 2025, 117 new companies added Bitcoin to their reserves; however, the overall trend towards adopting the first cryptocurrency is losing momentum, according to CryptoQuant.

The EUR/USD pair rallied sharply to 1.1735 on Friday, propelled by a sustained sell-off in the US dollar. The move followed a widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, which was accompanied by guidance that proved more accommodative than markets had expected.

Chair Jerome Powell explicitly ruled out further rate hikes, and the Fed's updated "dot plot" projections now indicate only one additional cut for 2026 – a more measured path of easing than previously anticipated.

Adding to dollar weakness, the Fed announced it would begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills to bolster banking system liquidity – a measure that pushed Treasury yields lower. This was compounded by economic data showing initial jobless claims rose last week at their fastest pace in nearly four and a half years, reinforcing the case for a more supportive policy stance.

The broader external environment is turning increasingly unfavourable for the greenback. While the Fed signals a slower pace of easing, markets are concurrently pricing in a relatively tighter policy trajectory for central banks in Australia, Canada, and the Eurozone. This divergence has driven the dollar lower against most major currencies this week, with its most pronounced decline coming against the euro.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD exhibits a robust bullish trend, trading near a key resistance zone at 1.1760–1.1780. The pair is holding firmly above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming buyer dominance. The upward slope and gradual widening of the upper band signal rising volatility and sustained momentum following a breakout to new highs.

Provided the price remains above the 1.1709 support, the market retains strong potential to challenge the 1.1780 ceiling. A decisive breakout and close above this zone would open a clear path towards 1.1850. Should a pullback materialise, the nearest significant support lies at 1.1650, the previous breakout point. A break below 1.1547 would be required to signal a deeper correction towards the lower Bollinger Band.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is consolidating after a powerful impulse wave that targeted the 1.1760–1.1780 resistance area. The current correction is finding initial support at 1.1709, a level from which the latest acceleration originated.

The Stochastic oscillator is declining from overbought territory, increasing the probability of a near-term pause or shallow pullback. Nevertheless, the underlying structure remains bullish, with the price trading above the middle Bollinger Band, which now serves as dynamic support.

A confirmed breakout above 1.1780 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, with subsequent targets at 1.1820 and 1.1850. Conversely, a sustained move below 1.1709 would provide the first technical indication of fading bullish momentum, potentially triggering a correction towards the next demand zone in the 1.1650–1.1620 range.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has broken out decisively on the back of a dovish Fed pivot and a shifting global rate differential. The technical picture is firmly bullish, with the pair now testing a major resistance cluster near 1.1780. A successful breakout above this level would likely accelerate gains towards 1.1850. In the near term, the 1.1709 support is critical; holding above it keeps the immediate upward bias intact, while a break below would suggest a period of consolidation is needed before the next directional move.

On 27 November, we suggested that silver was preparing to challenge its all-time high. Since then (marked with the orange arrow), XAG/USD has risen by roughly 18%, breaking above the psychological $60-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.

The rally has been driven by strong retail inflows into silver ETFs, alongside expectations of a structural supply deficit by 2026 due to robust industrial demand—particularly from solar energy, electric vehicles, and data-centre infrastructure.

The weakening of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday also helped lift dollar-denominated silver to a new historic peak near $64.

Technical Analysis of XAG/USD

A review of the XAG/USD chart shows that the price has been moving within a rising channel that encapsulates the uptrend beginning in early September.

Within this structure:

→ the channel median acted as a springboard for price growth on 4 December;

→ the line dividing the upper half of the channel into quarters switched from resistance (earlier in the month) to support on 10 December;

→ silver is now trading near the channel’s upper boundary, which may behave as significant resistance (as it did in mid-October).

Given these factors, the market may now be heavily overheated, leaving it vulnerable to a correction. Should this scenario begin to unfold, we could see a bearish break of the steep upward trajectory that has lifted silver by around 30% from the 21 November low.

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On 1 December, we outlined a descending channel on the XBR/USD chart and noted that the bearish trend was driven by fading geopolitical risks. Indeed, hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine—along with the possibility of sanctions on Russia being eased—acted as a bearish catalyst.

In addition, the International Energy Agency reaffirmed its forecast for a record supply surplus and highlighted that global inventories have reached a four-year high.

Under the influence of these and other factors, such as signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, Brent crude fell to a seven-week low at point A. However, today the XBR/USD chart shows a bullish reversal, again triggered by geopolitics, according to media reports:

→ The United States has intercepted a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, which Caracas described as an “act of piracy”.

→ Ukraine has struck another vessel from the “shadow fleet” linked to Russia’s oil trade.

Technical Analysis of XBR/USD

From a bearish perspective:

→ the $62.60 level (where the blue trendline was broken) remains a significant resistance zone;

→ bulls failed to preserve the gains from the A→B rally, as the price sank further to the low at point C;

→ the nearest resistance lies around $61.70.

From a bullish perspective:

→ the lower boundary of the channel may continue to act as support;

→ Brent crude has rebounded convincingly after a false bearish break below the November low—an indication of a potential liquidity grab, suggesting that “smart money” may be siding with demand.

Given these factors, geopolitical tensions may intensify, potentially driving XBR/USD back towards the median of the descending channel.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1692; (P) 1.1727; (R1) 1.1773; More….

EUR/USD's rally from 1.1467 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current development suggests that fall from 1.1917 has completed as a correction to 1.1467. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.1917 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1614 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1346) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.95; (P) 155.56; (R1) 156.17; More...

USD/JPY is still extending the corrective pattern from 157.88 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 154.33 will target 55 D EMA (now at 153.58) and possibly below. On the upside, above 156.94 will bring retest of 157.88. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 139.87 to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3349; (P) 1.3393; (R1) 1.3432; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rise from 1.3008 is in progress. As noted before, fall from 1.3787 should have completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. Firm break of 1.3470 resistance will pave the way to retest 1.3787 high. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3286 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.