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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.80; (P) 150.07; (R1) 150.48; More....

EUR/JPY rises notably today but stays below 151.05 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 151.05 will target 151.60 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 153.64 projection level. On the downside, below 148.58 will extend the corrective pattern from 151.60 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 139.05 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8558; (P) 0.8582; (R1) 0.8624; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8634 resistance holds. Break of 0.8538 will resume larger decline from 0.8977 to 161.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8453. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8634 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. It's seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall would be seen towards 0.8201 (2022 low). But strong support should be seen from there to bring reversal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5911; (P) 1.5936; (R1) 1.5961; More...

Deeper fall could still be seen in EUR/AUD. But downside should be contained by 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862, on loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Break of 1.6101 support will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as corrective whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828. Strong support could be seen there to complete the first leg of the corrective pattern.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9726; (P) 0.9757; (R1) 0.9809; More...

EUR/CHF's break of 0.9760 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 0.9670, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9779) will add to case that whole correction from 1.0095 has completed, and target 0.9878 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9670 support holds.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9929). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not complete yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3327; (P) 1.3356; (R1) 1.3396; More....

Intraday bias remains neutral and USD/CAD's focus stays on 1.3299 support. On the upside, break of 1.3460 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3653 resistance, to extend the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. However, sustained break of 1.3299 will indicate that larger corrective fall is underway, and target 100% projection of 1.3860 to 1.3299 from 1.3653 at 1.3092.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is expected to resume through 1.3976 after consolidation from there completes. On decisive break of 1.3976, next target will be 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 holds. However, sustained break of 1.3233 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758, and raise the chance of bearish reversal.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6731; (P) 0.6752; (R1) 0.6772; More...

AUD/USD's rally from 0.6457 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.6817 structural resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, break of 0.6691 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 is still in favor to continue as long as 0.6817 resistance holds. Prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.6801) keeps medium term outlook bearish. Break of 0.6457 will target 0.6169 key support (2022 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6817 will indicate that fall from 0.7156 has completed in a three-wave corrective structure. Rise from 0.6169 would then be ready to resume through 0.7156.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.20; (P) 139.48; (R1) 139.90; More...

Sideway consolidations continue in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.77).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9034; (P) 0.9072; (R1) 0.9127; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.8983 will revive the case that corrective rebound from 0.8818 has completed at 0.9146. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for deeper fall back to retest 0.8818 low. On the upside, however, break of 0.9146 will resume the rebound from 0.8818 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high), which might have completed at 0.8818 already, just ahead of 0.8756 long term support. Sustained trading above 0.9058 support turned resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Further break of 0.9439 resistance will confirm bullish trend reversal.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2466; (P) 1.2533; (R1) 1.2578; More...

GBP/USD retreated sharply after hitting 1.2598, but recovered just ahead of 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias is turned neutral. Break of 1.2598 will resume the rebound from 1.2306 towards 1.2678. Based on current momentum, upside should be limited there, to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern from 1.2678. On the downside, break of 1.2367 will target 1.2306 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

UK payrolled employees rose 23k in May, unemployment rate down to 3.8% in Apr

In May, UK payrolled employees rose 0.1% mom or 23k. Comparing with the same month a year ago, payrolled employees rose 1.6% yoy or 460k. Median monthly pay rose 7.0% yoy, highest in the other service activities sector, with an increase of 10.1% yoy, and lowest in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector, with an an increase of 5.4% yoy. Claimant count dropped -13.6k versus expectation of 21.4k.

In the three months to April, unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, versus expectation of 4.0%. Average earnings excluding bonus accelerated from 6.8% to 7.2%, above expectation of 6.9%. Average earnings including bonus accelerated from 6.1% to 6.5%, above expectation of 6.1%.

Full UK employment release here.